I detest how simplistic the media is, and how much they overreach on conclusions. The latest CBS/NYT poll shows Mitt Romney with a one point lead, which has led many news folks to openly conclude that the attacks by President Obama on Mitt's Bain and taxes issues, have failed.
BULL!
The only means to compare any single poll, is to compare to that pollster's previous polls, because they all use different methodologies. The last CBS/NYT poll was in May, and in that one, Mitt was up by 3 points. If you take the margin of error (between 3~4 points -- varies between the two polls) into account, there might not have been any movement in the polls. If you ignore the margin of error, then President Obama is gaining on Mitt.
But looking at any one given poll is, as I've said before, useless.
So let's look at the freshest polling from around the US. Some will find it incredulous that FOX News' poll released yesterday, showed President Obama with a 4 point lead! Wait, there's more. 50% of those polled, said that he deserved to be reelected.
Are we to assume therefore, that Obama's benefited hugely, in one day, from the attacks on Mitt's Bain and tax opaqueness?
No.
But taken in as a whole from all the polls tracked by RCP, Mitt has been stuck behind President Obama for a very long time. Over the next few weeks if we see all the polls shift one way or the other, we can then start to draw some conclusions about the effectiveness of each campaign's tactics.
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