Based upon the current polls of swing states where Obama holds a majority lead in nearly all of them, if the election were held today, Obama would easily go over the 270 electoral college votes needed to win reelection, whether you use HuffPo (left-leaning), Rasmussen (right-leaning) or RCP (right-leaning).
Let's look at RCP's "toss-up" states:
- Nevada - The last time Mitt had any lead, was April 2011 under a PPP poll. (6)
- Colorado - Mitt has never had a lead in any poll, period. (9)
- Wisconsin - Mitt has had just one poll (Rasmussen last month) to show him with a lead. (10)
- New Hampshire - Mitt hasn't led a poll since April. (4)
- Ohio - Going back to December 2010, Mitt's led just 4 out of 31 polls. (18)
- Virginia - Mitt led one poll in the last 10 going back 2 1/2 months. (13)
- North Carolina - Obama's had a lead in just two of 9 polls in the last two months. (15)
- Florida - Obama and Mitt have split the last four polls in the last month. (29)
- Michigan - Mitt's led in two of the last 6 polls going back to June, but those were the only two polls he's led since the start of the year. (16)
- Missouri - Obama has led in just one poll, in late May. (10)
- Iowa - PPP showed Obama with a 10 point lead in early May, but Rasmussen led by one in middle-June. (6)
If you add it up, Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral college votes, even if he lost Florida and Iowa.
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| The battle according to RCP. |
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| The battle according to HuffPo. |
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| The battle according to Rasmussen. |
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