Sunday, January 26, 2020

Let's Talk About the n-Coronavirus-2019 in China

China is lying. Maybe not intentionally, but we can tell that they're vastly underreporting the number of people infected by n-CoV-2019.
In Wuhan, video footage of people desperately seeking help was widespread on social media. Some nurses and doctors were reported to be suffering emotional breakdowns in hospital consulting rooms while outpatients crowd corridors with some pictured lying on the floor. 
More than 20 hospitals in Wuhan have posted statements pleading for aid from various sectors as there has been a shortage of masks, latex gloves, protective goggles and surgical gowns. -- Politico
From that Politico (SCMP) and from WHO, there are 39 deaths reported with 572 confirmed cases in Wuhan city. That's only 29 patients (572 confirmed cases / 20 hospitals = 29) per hospital. That's not a case where an overwhelming epidemic has forced outpatients to lie on the floor. It is the first indicator, however, that the number of infected is being vastly underreported.

The other indicator that this is underreported is the number of deaths. Under those numbers, the mortality rate is nearly 7% (39 deaths / 572 cases = 6.8%). For comparison, the Spanish Flu's mortality rate was 2.3%.

If we calculate backwards assuming Spanish Flu mortality rate, we get nearly 1700 (39 deaths / 0.023 = 1693 cases).

Online, video reports from inside Wuhan suggests 3x higher number of people sick. 1700 is completely in line with that (572 * 3 = 1716).

Imagine therefore, if this is on the scale of the Spanish Flu, shit's gonna get real bad real soon.

The Democratic Candidates, Grouped

The currently remaining Democratic candidates can be grouped by numerous attributes, most notably by their political leanings (far-left/left-of-center/centrist/right-of-center). These are mine.

The Known Commodities: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders
When people are scared, like Linus van Pelt, they grab their security blanket. Known commodities, likewise, are what people pick when the unknown scares them. It's why incumbents have a psychological advantage over challengers, even when the incumbent is poorly rated. Take Mitch McConnell, for instance. They keep electing him but he's one of the least-liked senators, as polled by his constituents. Democrats are fearful of a 2020 win by Trump, so, they run to the known commodities early on.

The Brave Bet: Elizabeth Warren -- my first pick since 2015
She's smart, she's well-accomplished with her ground-up construction of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, and she's well spoken. She connects with most Americans, speaking to their economic fears. I truly don't believe a person understands economic insecurity until one's been there. She's been there, which is why her message is powerful. Yet, as Bernie Sanders suggested, America won't elect a woman. That is not to say that America can't/won't elect a woman, but that too many Americans harbor lingering doubt that a woman can lead this nation. Misogyny exists.

The Backup Plan: Amy Klobuchar
She's a lot like Warren, but not nearly as accomplished. Though she leans to the right of Warren, she's still significantly more liberal than any other Republican in the Senate. She is well-spoken, intelligent, and she's got a great background, but most of all, she comes from the midwest and can pull votes from the region. Still, she's the bench warmer. If you want the superstar, you pick Warren. The NYT's dual endorsement essentially highlights Klobuchar's backup role. Note how they mentioned Warren first and dedicated more space to talking about Warren. Warren simply has more accomplishments than Klobuchar.

The Rookies: Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer, Andrew Yang
Let's face it, being mayor of a city with a population of ~102,000 doesn't exactly establish your leadership cred. Buttigieg may be smart and well-spoken, but being mayor of a college town means you're a rookie in government. Steyer and Yang, having never governed, are in the same boat. These are the choices when you're desperate for change. There simply isn't enough information to understand how effectively they'd be at governing.

The Dark Hor$e: Mike Bloomberg
His billions and his political leaning (targeting the same centrist position of Biden) make him a dark horse candidate. The money ensures he'll be able to stay in the race and withstand low delegate counts, until the pool of candidates shrinks. At that point, he could gain significant attention in the media, pulling support from Biden and Buttigieg. Momentum at the right time means he could overtake the field.

The Hell Freezes Over Pick: Tulsi Gabbard
She'll sue anyone in the Democratic Party for talking smack about her, even if they're not talking smack about her. She's the self-defeating-do-anything-to-get-attention-because-the-money's-running-out candidate. Also, aligning herself with Trump was a non-starter. She's quickly fading nationally and at home. Even before she dropped out of running for re-election for her House seat, she'd already garnered a strong challenger from the Hawaii Senate. She's just not well-liked.

The Unknowns: William Bennett, Deval Patrick, John Delaney
Nobody knows them except for their constituents.In the debates, Bennett and Delaney slowly faded into the background of the debates and on issues, such that no one remembers who they are. The media won't cover them because they'd already faded into the background months ago. Still, they persist for no good reason.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Mike

Like a child, I would rather not know your disposition. That way, I can pretend that you're still here. Sticking my head in the ground is preferable than having to recognize that you're gone, you know.

Getting older, I recognize the comforts of childhood and wish to go back to that ignorant bliss.

Shit. I miss my conversations with you.

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

A Graphic Design Concept

Just a quick, 4-ish hour exercise, including research on labeling requirements for Oregon's cannabis retail packaging. It's not all that difficult to learn, but I can definitely see how some might build an entire business of graphic design around the cannabis industry.




Thoughts on Residential Design

Just found this plot of land that, at one point in time, had a prefab home on it. All that's left of it is the gravel where the prefab sat and stub-ups of the utilities. It's fairly inexpensive for being about a mile from a Max stop. I think the reason for its lower price is the fact that half of the property sits within a FEMA flood zone and is zoned Agriculture/Forest.

From the FEMA map, a large corner of the original footprint of the structure seems to sit within the 100-year flood plain. Perhaps a flood damaged the home and the owner collected on the insurance?

In any case, I've started sketching out ideas on how to build on this site. First move was to push the building area outside of the previous building's footprint, to higher ground -- some 30 feet away from the original footprint's lowest corner. The original owner had located a two-car carport at the high side of the property, which makes no sense.


What makes this property so appealing despite its tight buildable area constraints is that it backs right into a sliver of a wetland forest with a full-time creek. Literally, a creek flows through the corner of the property. Wake up, walk to the window with your cup of coffee and enjoy the view as the sun rises -- hard to beat that.


Early volumetric blocking and basic material palette with some site details developed, but this is how it'd look like when you come home every day. To the left is a 520sf ADU. To the right is a 1200sf main residence and a 288sf workspace in front of it. A site like this really gets me excited. I can even see using shipping containers for this site. It's perfect, in fact, because the site demands a linear design.