Friday, March 8, 2013

BLS Feb 2013: +236K jobs. Not the only number you should read.

From ADP's February 2013 jobs report showing a gain of 198K jobs, to today's BLS release showing 236K increased employment, the news is pretty good.  But this -- the headline number -- isn't the only thing you should be cognizant of.

What you should also pay attention to, is the third estimate buried in the monthly report.  As the BLS gets more data in from each state's employment office, the data is revised twice, and the third estimate is the final version.

If you paid too much attention to the headline number, you wouldn't have known that the headline BLS missed a lot of jobs over the last three years.  How much?
  • 2010 = +480K
  • 2011 = +340K
  • 2012 = +286K
That's a million more jobs created in the last three years, that politicians and pundits have mostly ignored.

(Yes, I am choosing to ignore the household survey number showing fewer people participating in the jobs market.  I think there are some misunderstandings of what this number actually reflects, compared to the establishment survey, including growing retirements.)

As I look outside and see the construction going on, the crazy traffic at rush hour, and the crowded street parking during the midweek evenings, I can tell you this is the polar opposite of December 2008.  It also points to a fundamental problem we'll be facing in the next few years: inadequate infrastructure investment during the slow years.

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