Monday, March 25, 2013

Same-sex marriage: Politicians rushing to get in front.

You can see it, don't you?  Gay marriage will be part of the litmus test for 2014 and 2016, except this time around, you're not likely to gain mainstream support if you do not hold marriage as a universally available right, regardless of sexual orientation.

Coming out in support recently:

05-06-2012 -- Joe Biden
05-09-2012 -- Barack Obama
05-20-2012 -- NAACP
02-21-2013 -- Jon Huntsman
03-15-2013 --Rob Portman
03-18-2013 -- Hillary Clinton
03-24-2013 -- Claire McCaskill
03-25-2013 -- Mark Warner

How Barack Obama changed everything
In my mind, Barack Obama's public pronouncement of support, then getting the NAACP on board, was huge.  The African-American community had long been strongly against same-sex marriage, particularly within the Baptist Church.

But the deal was sealed when Barack Obama won re-election, for it showed that African-Americans and centrists of all colors weren't going to punish him for his support, or that they had changed their minds over the issue; he already had liberal support for same-sex marriage, especially on the coasts, after all.

Following California's 2008 Prop 8 passage, exit polls showed that as many as 70% of African-Americans supported Prop 8's ban on same-sex marriage.  In Pew's 2008-2009 poll, 62% of African-Americans (Black, non-Hispanic) were against same-sex marriage.  In Pew's 2010 poll, 59% were still against same-sex marriage.  Right after Obama's announcement in support of same-sex marriage, 59% of African-Americans backed same-sex marriage.

What was once a slow leak, has turned into flood, especially right after the SCOTUS releases its decision on two related cases, later this year.  But, any serious candidate for POTUS will announce their support for same-sex marriage before any decision can be handed down, or else they risk looking like followers and not leaders.

So, remember this list of respondents and their reactions, especially Marco Rubio, following Obama's announcement last year, because their words in 2012 will come back to haunt them in 2014 and 2016.  Political courage means taking some risks, after all.

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