The economy and politics

I was looking at the Gallup daily polls, looking to see if it validated this Quinnipiac poll, or if it was more likely a case of poll bias within the margin of error.  It was definitely within the margin of error, but the Gallup hasn't been updated with the latest, yet, so I can't really say for sure that this is a case of poll bias.  The last Gallup number however, doesn't support the Quinnipiac poll.

Nonetheless, while on the Gallup daily poll site, I grabbed the public's opinion poll of the economy, and popped it into a chart.  The results were mildly amusing.

It turns out, you can see very distinctive marks left by the passage of the stimulus bill (2009 ARRA) and the late Summer of 2011 debt ceiling show down.  Less than a month following the passage of the ARRA, the number of people who felt that the economy was getting better shot up.  Following the start of the debt ceiling showdown, there was a big drop in the number of people who felt that the economy was getting better.

In both of these cases, Republicans were on the wrong side of public opinion, though obviously the ACA turned public opinion against Democrats, at least for the time being, that is.  Having seen the kind of prices that the new health insurance exchanges will have, I am confident that the (red) states that rejected the exchanges will find themselves in a pickle when everyone else is enjoying much lower healthcare insurance rates.

Whereas Democrats in blue states have a political incentive to ensure that the exchanges work well, Republicans in red states have a political incentive to ensure that the exchanges fail.  Except, once people see how well the ACA works in blue states, Republicans might be in trouble for making gross exaggerations of the ACA, and for blocking its implementation in red states.

By the Summer of 2014, we'll know whether the Republican party is going to be overwhelmingly forced back to a more moderate platform, or crushed in the 2014 mid-term election cycle.