Friday, May 17, 2013

No, Power ball odds do not decrease or increase.

I was a bit taken aback the other day, when on the news, the mayor of some city said that she was going to play Power Ball with its prize estimated at $360M, despite the odds of her winning having slightly decreased.  That is to say, she believed that the odds of winning had decreased because there were so many people playing.

It's impossible for the odds of winning to increase or decrease, based on the number of people entering the contest; it's a random draw of numbers, not a random draw of a winner.

Match Prize Odds
     + 
Grand Prize
1 in 175,223,510.00
    
$1,000,000
1 in 5,153,632.65
 + 
$10,000
1 in 648,975.96
$100
1 in 19,087.53
 
$100
1 in 12,244.83
$7
1 in 360.14
 
$7
1 in 706.43
 
$4
1 in 110.81
$4
1 in 55.41

It's like watching Leno's Jaywalk All-Stars, but worse: Instead of laughing, I'm just sad.  How can such a simple concept elude an elected official?

While your odds of winning do not change, the odds of having to split the pot with others, goes up as more people play Power Ball.  There is a sweet spot -- so to speak -- where you'd want to enter the Power Ball.

Of course, the point of entering the Power Ball isn't so much as to win, but as to dream about winning.  Hope is very powerful.

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