Monday, July 25, 2011

I thought I'd just post an early prediction of the next three weeks in US politics.


  • They'll take their votes (the Boehner plan in the House and the Reid plan in the Senate); (7/27)
  • Both will pass in their respective chamber but fail to pass in the opposite chamber; (7/28)
  • Republicans will point the finger at Democrats for not signing onto Cut Cap and Balance, while Democrats will complain that Republicans were never genuinely interested in raising the debt ceiling; (7/28)
  • Obama administration will openly talk of the 14th Amendment; (7/28)
  • Republicans will fire a preemptive lawsuit to seek validity of court standing, then to seek a permanent injunction; (7/29) 
  • SCOTUS announces they will hold an unprecedented court review over the weekend; (7/30)
  • SCOTUS will then reject the use of the 14th Amendment on Monday morning; (8/1)
  • Worldwide markets immediately react with 3~4% drops; (8/1)
  • Government shuts down; (8/2)
  • Markets drop another 3~5%; (8/3)
  • Republicans blame Democrats for the drop, based on their dire warnings prior to the deadline; (8/2, 8/3)
  • Markets drop another 10%; (8/4 - 8/5)
  • Riots in home towns of Tea Party Republicans and all across America Democratic politicians will be marching with labor, seniors and the general public; (8/6 - 8/9)
  • Congress escapes to the Capitol for security and an emergency session in the middle of their typical Labor Day recess (August 8 - Sept 5) to pass the Reid bill; (8/10 - 8/11)
  • Obama signs bill into law. (8/13)

The time line might be accelerated, but without a doubt, if Congress goes on its regularly scheduled recess, it will be the trigger that sends the nation into demonstrations, marches then riots.

What do you think?  Anyone still actually believe a deal can be done before August 2nd?

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