October 2012 ADP Employment Report is out.

Big disclaimer: ADP made major changes to their methodology, first by using a significantly larger sample size, but secondly, switching firms that it was partnered with, from MacroAdvisers to Moody's Analytics.  The move was made to try to get the ADP report to come closer to the BLS' reports, which may or may not be a good thing; as noted previously, both the BLS' and ADP's trailing two months are adjusted, such that they eventually come much closer to each other.

Onto the ADP 2012 October Employment Report:

• +158,000 jobs in October
• +114,000 jobs in September (down from previously reported 162,000, but matches the previous 114,000 reported by BLS in Sept report)
• +82,000 jobs in August (down from previously reported 189,000, but is significantly lower than the previous 142,000 reported by BLS in Sept report)

They break down the numbers now, such that, according to ADP, there was a boom in construction jobs.  Well, if I look outside, I can tell you there are cranes and construction, and people are hiring right now.

I don't know if the change to using Moody's is necessarily a good thing.  Once we get BLS' October report tomorrow, we'll see if the move to Moody's Analytics was a good choice or not.  IF the point of switching was to get closer to BLS' headline number, then this could be a sign that the BLS October jobs report will correspondingly show a +158,000 jobs gain, which will be huge for President Obama's message that we're on the right track.

Any bets on whether tomorrow's BLS report shows a drop in the unemployment rate, down to 7.5%?