Friday, November 2, 2012

BLS 2012 October surprise!

First, the bad news, that is actually only disguised as bad news: The unemployment rate inched up from 7.8 to 7.9%, but that's obviously because of more people re-entering the workforce, because....

BOOM!

August 96,000 ---> 142,000 ---> 192,000
September 114,000 ---> 148,000
October 171,000

The third and final August 2012 adjustment, in fact shows that from the initial disappointing report, there was a huge gain in jobs (nearly double that of the original August jobs report), far exceeding the minimum needed to meet population growth.  September was also adjusted upwards, and with October's huge jobs gain, that's four straight months of solid job growth after a tentative Spring.

This is huge news, folks.  It's a clear indication that there is sustained growth in the US, and that we're headed in the right direction, even if not as fast as we'd all like it to be.

Obama is going to win in a landslide, now.

Update: Gotta love Fox News' headline: "Last jobs report before election shows economy in 'virtual standstill'."

Hey, never mind the 171,000 jobs created, right?

Were it not for half a million people re-entering the workforce, the unemployment rate would have fallen.  Remember, the unemployment rate is based on the household survey, and this survey is what reported half-a-million people re-entering the workforce.

And the BLS also noted that there were 154,000 fewer discouraged workers among the marginally-attached (non-full time workers) -- that's a 15.9% reduction in the number of discouraged workers!

Yesterday, there were 424 Craigslist job postings in the Portland, OR section. Four years ago, it was closer to 20.

Just about the only people to see the glass half empty, are conservatives who are now seeing Mitt's chances sink faster than a boat with no bottom.


Update 2: Awkward! Fox Business covered the same BLS report, but with a completely different headline: "U.S. jobs growth quickens, giving Obama some relief." (It was a Reuters story they were republishing.)

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