So says the WSJ. Sprint has committed to buying at least 30.5M iPhones over four years.
Let's look at the numbers, shall we?
As of Q2 2011, Sprint had 52M+/- post-paid users.
Based on two-year plans that would otherwise restrict people from buying more than two iPhones over a four-year span, Sprint would need 15.25M customers every two years to buy an iPhone. (You could split the figure into four years, but you're still restricted by two-year plans, so your total would still be the same.)
According to Sprint's app development program site, 35% of its users own smart phones -- that's roughly 18M users.
iOS (iPhone only) market share according to Nielsen (May - July 2011) stood at 28%. Except for misguided analysts who use unscientific polls to make outlandish predictions, the actual performance of iOS in the US has relatively flat, at between 27~28% for the last seven quarters, including Q2-2011 (also from Nielsen).
Let's say, in four years' time, 60% of Sprint's users move to smart phones, and 50% of them choose the iPhone over Android, WP7 and RIM...that's the sort of rosy projections we're talking about.
Frankly, I don't see the reason why people are going to suddenly flood Sprint and push their ratio of iPhone users remarkably higher than the national average...they don't have a particular advantage over other networks that already have the iPhone.
It looks like Sprint is falling for the same trap that led it down the face Palm, two years ago when it signed an exclusive deal to get the WebOS-based Pre exclusively for 6 months before anyone else.
A belated update: Sprint's getting the iPhone 4S, but it's not going to have either WiMax or LTE.
You might have to wait until the traditional Apple love-fest in June, known as WWDC, which seems like a set up for poor short-term numbers. The biggest benefit, it appears, is for AT&T users, who will get HSPA+ 14Mbps on iPhone 4S.
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