Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The economy is better than it was in 2009.

I use three informal means of measuring the economy:

  • Craigslist postings for architectural- and engineering-related jobs.  For a very long time - close to around 8 years now - I've informally tracked the job postings on Craigslist.  In 2009, there was barely a single post a day (if at all) in the Arch / Engineering sections of various cities.  For most of this year, it's been a tale of night and day, where most days, there are at least 3 or 4, sometimes going above 10.
  • The number of viable jobs that I turn away from.  I'm a picky bastard, not in the firms that I want to work for, but in the sort of job roles / tasks that I'd be willing to do.  Of late, there have been far more interesting jobs that I've strongly considered going after, but have turned away from, because of the greater specificity of what I want in a job.
  • Guru.com listings.  The more people are willing to build / create products, the more listings for cheap labor on Guru.com.  While I haven't ever tried to bid for a job via Guru (I'm not taking the bait for lowest wage), I do keep a track of professionally related job postings.  Whereas in 2009 I'd get maybe an email a day with one or two job listings, nowadays it's not uncommon to receive multiple emails in a day with several jobs listed.
All three of my informal means of measuring economic activity suggests to me that there is decent hiring growth going on right now, though by no means the sort of outright boom that 2004-2006 was.  I do not see a slowdown in construction.  If there is a slowdown, it will be due to consumer spending...IMO.

Yes, I could always go through the GDP data and the unemployment rate to illustrate that there are more people working this year than in 2009.  I'm just saying, if you want to know how the local economy is doing, all you need to do is informally track the number and quality of CL postings.  If you want to see how the US economic outlook is, track the number of jobs on Guru.com or other job bid websites.

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