In February of this year, David Bianco from Bank of America-Merrill Lynch believed there was an 80% chance of sustained recovery; this week he's pegged it the opposite direction -- now it's 80% likely we're headed for a recession.
Last week, everyone's favorite recession-prognosticator Nouriel Roubini believes that odds were 50-50 that we were headed for a recession in the next 12 months.
This past Tuesday's Fed statement that they would hold rates near zero through 2013 sent markets soaring for a day, but all the analysts understood that this meant that the economy was in such a bad shape, that the threat of recession was real:
Even former labor secretary (under Bill Clinton) / ex-Obama adviser Robert Reich says odds are probably 50-50.
As noted by Roubini, last month's unemployment rate dropped mostly because people left the work force, not that we've had job gains overtaking job losses.
Even as the 10 year US Treasury drops, the 1 year US Treasury has dropped faster. Short-term it seems that there is concern over a double-dip recession.
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