Windows 8 momentum slowing? (Updated)

I had a peek at Microsoft's last few quarterly statements, and noticed that their Windows division's revenue had slowed down from the end of last year to the start of this year.  It got me wondering if, despite the PR statements from Microsoft saying that they had sold 100M Windows 8 licenses in the last 6 months, if momentum had been slowing down.

Putting GS Statcounter and Netmarketshare numbers side by side by measuring the change in desktop OS market share from the previous month, the two are very similar, and the trend is very clear: Aside from initial sales, Windows 8 market share has been slowing down.

In the chart, pointing upwards means market share is gaining steam; pointing downwards means market share is losing steam.  You see that bump in June 2012?  That was the official Release Preview.  That big bump in November, obviously, is when Windows 8 was officially released and new devices became available.

Bad news, don't you think?  Maybe the 8.1 update with its boot-to-desktop option and the half-hearted return of the Start button will change momentum?

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Update:

There is no meaningful way to compare revenue from Microsoft's Windows division between Windows 7 and 8 releases, because Microsoft eliminated full-retail version (only upgrades and OEM available) of its OS with Windows 8, and their discounted periods and prices were different. Those who might have bought a full-retail OS are pushed to a much lower-priced OEM license. Preordering W7 was $50 while W8 was $70, unless you downloaded the upgrade, in which case W8 was $40.  Academic upgrades for W7 was $30 while 8 is $40.

Nonetheless, here's a comparison:

So, in the first full quarter after W8's introduction, Microsoft's Windows division didn't see as steep of a decline in income as the case was after W7's introduction.  But, you can see that W7 exceeded initial demand far and above that of W8.  There aren't enough post-sales quarters to tell for sure, but I think the initial quarter sales speaks volumes, especially considering that the desktop market -- even if shrinking -- was much larger in late 2012 than it was in late 2009.

So naturally, here is a comparison of market share growth between W7 and W8, using Netmarketshare and GS Statcounter.

Of course, people like to point out that W8 had 100M licenses sold in the first 6 months matching that of W7.  But if you look at IDC's numbers, W8 started out with a bigger market.  Again, you can see the enormous influence W7 had on total PC shipments, compared to that of W8.

If, over the year we see PC shipments pick up again in Q+3 (return to school shopping) and Q+4 (holidays), but at a lower volume than W7, then it's probably safe to say that mobile (smartphones and tablets) haven't displaced the desktop OS market quite as dramatically as has been trumpeted.

In total, it's a clear picture -- excepting Microsoft fanboys, that is -- that Windows 8 is a flop.  I even made an open offer to Microsoft fanboys online to make a bet that Windows 8 would not reach 10% market share by the end of 2013, but no one took the bet.