First, I had brought this up in the August BLS report (when talking about the disparity between the BLS and ADP reports) which initially showed a disappointing +96,000 (and was subsequently revised upward to +142,000):
"The household survey is based on total population over 16 years of age -- there is no upper age limit. While it might be true that people are discouraged and dropping out of the workforce, technically the drop in employment participation and the corresponding drop in unemployment rate may also be incorporating people of retirement age, who have simply stopped working completely, even if they wanted to continue to work -- something that will continue to grow as baby boomers exit the workforce."Indeed, Paul Krugman has now covered this point, along the lines of the Calculated Risk blog, and weighted each age demographic to show what could actually be occurring.
My second point, is that for some reason, people thought there was a conspiracy going on. Weird. Let me say this again: If you had looked at the ADP report, you knew this was coming. October's jobs report will just drive conservatives foaming angry, when they find out that the BLS adjusted the September number upward!
Month | BLS | ADP | Diff | Prev Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|
July | 181,000 | 156,000 | 25,000 | 27,000 |
August | 142,000 | 189,000 | 47,000 | 105,000 |
September | 114,000 | 162,000 | 48,000 | -- |
Hey, anyone notice a trend?
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