Friday, October 5, 2012

Sept 2012 BLS employment report -- one last point.

Well okay, two last points.

First, I had brought this up in the August BLS report (when talking about the disparity between the BLS and ADP reports) which initially showed a disappointing +96,000 (and was subsequently revised upward to +142,000):
"The household survey is based on total population over 16 years of age -- there is no upper age limit.  While it might be true that people are discouraged and dropping out of the workforce, technically the drop in employment participation and the corresponding drop in unemployment rate may also be incorporating people of retirement age, who have simply stopped working completely, even if they wanted to continue to work -- something that will continue to grow as baby boomers exit the workforce."
Indeed, Paul Krugman has now covered this point, along the lines of the Calculated Risk blog, and weighted each age demographic to show what could actually be occurring.

So what this shows us, is that the 16 - 54 age groups are seeing their employment rates increase about as fast as the best years of George Bush's, but on the other hand it also means that 55+ people are seeing age discrimination and difficulties getting back into the economy.

My second point, is that for some reason, people thought there was a conspiracy going on.  Weird.  Let me say this again: If you had looked at the ADP report, you knew this was coming.  October's jobs report will just drive conservatives foaming angry, when they find out that the BLS adjusted the September number upward!

Month BLS ADP Diff Prev Diff
July 181,000 156,000 25,000 27,000
August 142,000 189,000 47,000 105,000
September 114,000 162,000 48,000  --

Hey, anyone notice a trend?

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