The two tracking national polls -- Rasmussen and Gallup -- both show that, a full day after the debate, Mitt hasn't gained any ground. Rasmussen shows Mitt down 2 (same as it was yesterday) and Gallup shows Mitt down 5 (an increase from being down 4).
Further, Rasmussen's swing-state daily tracker remains unchanged between the four days before the debate (+5 average for Obama), and the two days following it (+5.5 average for Obama).
So if Mitt won the first debate, where's the bounce? Well, the problem for Mitt is, 96% of the voters have already decided; 1% will vote for a third party candidate; just 3% remain undecided, but they won't use a single debate to quantify their choice.
But let's get down to the nitty gritty of the polls: Mitt absolutely cannot win the election if he doesn't win Ohio and Florida.
RCP's electoral map shows just 8 swing states left: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado and Nevada. In order to reach the White House, Mitt needs to win all eight swing states...no kidding.
Reverse this, and all Obama really needs to do is win Florida; if their campaign prefers, all they need to do is win any handful of combinations of two of the eight swing states.
Yes, that's how hard it is for Mitt to make it to the White House. With the steadiness of polling data through the year, the odds are heavily in favor of Barack Obama, even if no one is willing to admit it, publicly.
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