Saturday, October 13, 2012

2012 USC football: Thoughts at the halfway point.

In its last three games -- Cal / Utah / Washington -- the Trojans haven't scored in the third quarter.  So far, USC has not yet broken 500 yards on offense.  In fact, the only teams that have done worse than USC: Utah, Washington, Colorado and WSU.  Including the UW game, USC is now 22 for 73 on 3rd down conversions, just 30.1%; so bad that they may be in the bottom 10 out of 120 FBS teams.  Notice something here?

USC's offense, which was supposed to be its strength, is no better than the worst teams in the PAC-12.  If not for the surprise of USC's defense doing so well, USC's scoring offense would be closer to the bottom of the PAC-12, and not near the top.

Instead of a Heisman year for Barkley, it's looking increasingly like his NFL stock is dropping, with his numbers slightly down from last year.

It's embarrassing.

In Seattle, USC's offense wasn't on the same page, with broken plays, players out of position and plays being called so late, that they're barely getting the ball off before the clock expires.

But then there's the defense.

USC had just one drive over 15 yards, in the second half of the Stanford game.  If they were able to muster up more than four 3-and-outs and two turnovers on downs, the defense would have likely shined in the fourth quarter and shut down Stanford.  Didn't happen.  But it turns out, the defense has been bailing out the offense.

USC's defense has been surprisingly good, except at cornerback #2.  After a few series in the UW game, it seems that Josh Shaw permanently displaced Torin Harris at corner, opposite Nickell Robey.  JC transfer Morgan Breslin and true freshman Leonard Williams seem to be the special d-line tandem duo living in the opponent's backfield.  Including the UW game, they've combined for over 20 total tackles for a loss.  Although let's be honest: the entire d-line has done exceptionally well, even though they were thought to be the #1 question going into the season.

Then there's Dion Bailey.  A converted safety to linebacker, following the UW game he now leads all linebackers in the FBS with 4 interceptions.  USC is now tied for 1st place in the PAC-12 in interceptions.

The defense is definitely good.

But after one loss, most people are scratching their heads as to why USC's offense looks so bad.  There is a ray of hope: last year Matt Barkley and USC had an up and down first half of the season, too.  It's eerily fascinating how similar this year is, compared to last year.  Consider:
  • 5 - 1 at the halfway point in both seasons;
  • 30 ppg the first half of last year, compared to 32.3 ppg this year;
  • Barkley had 16 TDs and 4 INTs in the first half of last year, compared to 16TDs and 6 INTs this year.
A lot of other stats point to a potential second half offensive explosion.  You can clearly see the potential there, but the mental errors are just crazy.  Obviously USC is going to be the underdog at home, against Oregon, considering that Oregon is averaging 50.5 ppg against the PAC-12, and USC is averaging just 25.8 ppg against the PAC-12.  Head to head, Oregon slaughtered Washington, while USC escaped because of its defense.

Kennedy Polamalu may be listed as the offensive coordinator, but Lane's calling the plays.  I'm not yet ready to bail on his playing the role of both the head coach and offensive play caller, but he's been uneven at times.  If he does not at least get USC to a BCS game this year, he must reconsider trying to do both head coaching and offensive play calling.

We'll see, eh?

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