Sunday, September 1, 2013

The world discovers the result of its ambivalence towards chemical weapons.

I was expecting to write about this, a week or so from now, but after a week of watching Britain back off from any response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria, followed by Americans stepping back from intervention, we now have Bashar Al Assad's response: gloating.

Now, I'm not saying that he provided a prima facie case of his guilt, but someone who didn't use chemical weapons, wouldn't be gloating over a lack of response; he'd be using it as proof that he didn't use chemical weapons.

As I wrote before, it doesn't matter who used the chemical weapons, but as the White House's map of the attacks shows, the August 21st attack is spread out by 12 miles in a dozen locations, between rebel-dominant and contested locations.



So if you actually believe that the rebels planned this attack against their own, then you have to believe that they were able to disseminate, coordinate and properly deliver these chemical weapons, despite prior evidence that the rebels are not all aligned with each other and aren't well coordinated.  Heck, there's even a civil war between the Free Syria rebels and the Al Nusra religious extremists.

Now, a lot of people are worried that Assad will make good on his threats to attack Israel, or that he has the ability to attack US forces.  But if he had the ability to attack Israel with meaningful consequences or confront American forces, why hadn't he responded to other Israeli attacks this year to stop the movement of arms from Syria to Hezbollah?  Or why hasn't he been able to put down the rebels, apparently holding back, even as his influence and secured areas shrank?

This is not Iraq, and this is not Serbia.  Damascus is barely able to run even with the rebels, and the only serious threat that Assad has, is his chemical weapons; in a single day he killed thousands of people with a limited release.  He cannot use chemical weapons outside of his border, except in a final act of futility, as it would guarantee a response of deadly regime change.  But without an external response to his use of chemical weapons, he has a green light to continue to use his chemical weapons within his borders, whenever he feels threatened at the edge of Damascus.  Damascus' edges is Assad's own red line.  Imagine what happens when the rebels breach Damascus' edge.

And that is why someone needs to eliminate the chemical weapons in Syria.

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