Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Did Obama stumble into the current Syrian plan?

There's a lot of written material out there saying that President Obama stumbled into the current chemical weapons seizure plan, via Secretary Kerry's off the cuff remark.  But that doesn't make sense.  I get that the media wants to believe that there have been a series of tragic accidents in his Syria policy, but they have to overcome a whole bunch of things to get there.
  • John Kerry is no verbal slouch; he was the Democratic nominee for president, after all, and did well in the presidential debates.  Politicians like Kerry, having spent decades in public service, know to be careful of every word they speak.
  • Cass Sunstein.  As the administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (2009 - 2012)  then an outside consultant to President Obama, he wrote a book, Nudge, that should have clued people in as to what really happened.  I was late to the game in reading Sunstein (and Richard Thaler) I figured it out the moment it was called an off-the-cuff remark, that it wasn't.
  • I'm intelligent, but there are millions of equally smart or smarter people out there, especially in the White House, so if I come up with that same plan -- to dangle a UN resolution to take the chemical weapons away -- weeks ago, it's assured that this idea was floating around in the White House, too.  And since they've been tracking Syrian chemical weapons for over a year, it's probably been in their arsenal of policy options for the past year.
  • And it turns out that President Obama had been talking to President Putin about getting rid of chemical weapons through the UN, at least since last year.
It's really sly: Secretary Kerry's remark was a planted suggestion to get the Russians and Syria's Bashar Al Assad to jump on it, then own it.  When you let someone take credit for an idea, they become thrilled about it, then work hard to ensure its success.  I've done this a few times myself, so the first conclusion I have, knowing that Cass Sunstein was a strong influence in the White House, is that this -- chemical weapons under UN program -- was the true goal all along.

An aside: There was one error in this, by letting the French draft the UN resolution.  President Obama's inclusion of the French was separately motivated to give the US' only other major ally on the military strike option, a reward for sticking with Obama.  But the White House should have requested that the Russians draft up a resolution, in order to get the Russians to own the disarmament path, and take responsibility of its failure, including the need to resort to military strikes.

Or you can just read everything that goes on in the world at face value, if you want. It's not as if people who write and speak in public, especially in the media, have a hidden agenda, right?  ;)

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