Friday, September 6, 2013

Prediction: USC 49 - WSU 10

I'm not going to start up a weekly prediction of the PAC-12 or USC like I did last year, but this weekend's game predictions online have been bugging me.

I get that people believe in Mike Leach's team, mostly because they were able to hang with Auburn in the rowdy Jordan-Hare Stadium.  But you know, Auburn sucked last year even worse than WSU.  Auburn had just two wins against FBS teams -- New Mexico State and Louisiana-Monroe -- with NMSU probably the worst team in the FBS for the entirety of the last decade (2.9 wins average over the last 10 years), while their win over ULM required overtime, in Jordan-Hare Stadium.  I'm not exaggerating, Auburn really bit the dust.

And, take out its win on the road against a lowly UNLV (just two wins last year) last year and WSU averaged just 8.4 points on the road.

But take a closer look at that game down at Auburn.  Conner Halliday threw one touchdown but was intercepted three times, and made just 5.29 yards / attempt.  Last year he threw for 15 touchdowns but had 13 interceptions with 6.45 yards / attempt.  Those are abysmal stats, but somehow people think that he's going to challenge the USC secondary?  I think not!  Two names: Su'a Cravens and Dion Bailey.

Then, there's the issue of playing in the Coliseum.  The last time WSU visited the Coliseum (and lost) was in 2009.  In other words, the majority of players will have never stepped foot into the Coliseum under the bright lights at night, as the blur of Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Justin Davis, Tre Madden and the rest of the Trojans zoom by.

The difference between USC receivers grabbing tons of yards and touchdowns in Honolulu, is a matter of a bunch of dropped balls by your top receivers.  That score could have easily been 51 - 13.

If there was going to be a trap game between these two teams, it'd be next year up in Pullman, not this year down in Los Angeles.  The real question here is, when USC is up big and Kessler is pulled, will Kiffin stop Wittek in the second half from throwing down field?  If so, then the score will be as I predicted, if not, it'll get ugly and it could be 63 - 10.

USC 49 - WSU 10

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