Saturday, September 28, 2013

The economy as a hostage and attempted sneaks.

We've been through this before.

2011 Debt Ceiling Fight
The threat: To immediately slash spending by keeping the debt ceiling in place.
The hostage: Government employees, people who use government services and programs, and the economy.
The attempted sneak: House Republicans tried to slip a Balanced Budget Amendment and alternatively their Cut, Cap and Balance plans into any debt ceiling increase.
The "compromise": The Budget Control Act that birthed the sequester cuts and a means to avert one debt ceiling fight that was expected to come, early 2013.
The timing vs the deadline: The House passed the agreed-upon "compromise" on August 1, the Senate followed on August 2, with the President signing it the same day, which was the Treasury's deadline.

2012 Fiscal Cliff Fight
The threat: To allow Bush tax cuts to expire and the sequester cuts remain intact.
The hostage: Taxpayers and the economy.
The attempted sneak: To cut Social Security payments by capping its increase, and spending cuts in lieu of...sequester spending cuts.
The "compromise": A three month delay in the sequester cuts and a temporary extension of some Bush tax cuts.
The timing vs the deadline: Having gone over the fiscal cliff at midnight December 31st, the Senate passed a "compromise" bill around 2:00 am on January 1.  The House spent most of the day debating whether or not they'd pass a bill or wait until the next session was convened, or to add an amendment, finally calling a vote in the hour before midnight, where the majority of Republicans voted against it, but because most Democrats voted for it, the President was able to sign the bill into law before the markets opened on January 2.

2013 FY-2014 Budget Fight
The threat: To shut down government.
The hostage: Government employees, people who use government services and programs (national forests, EPA, Pentagon non-essentials, etc.) and the economy.
The attempted sneak: Defunding Obamacare / delaying Obamacare.
The "compromise":  There is none to be had; the demand by Republicans is to have Democrats and the President capitulate.  (Optionally, John Boehner might slash his own wrists by taking up the Continuing Resolution in a conference committee with the Senate, and allow the Obamacare provisions to be excluded.)
The timing vs the deadline: The fiscal year ends Monday September 30th and the new fiscal year starts October 1st.  Without a budget law in place, the only bills to get paid are non-discretionary (mandatory) programs.  Obamacare is a non-discretionary program.  So far, Republicans are in no rush to prevent a government shutdown.

2013 Debt Ceiling Fight
The threat: To shut down government and cause a selective default.
The hostage: Most of the world -- if the US (the largest economy in the world) defaults, the effects will spread.
The attempted sneak: Defunding Obamacare / delaying Obamacare, slashing spending in lieu of forced slashing of spending.
The "compromise: There is none to be had; the demand by Republicans is to have Democrats and the President capitulate.
The timing vs the deadline: Treasury has given October 17th as their absolute deadline before it defaults on payments.  So far, Republicans have signaled willingness to keep the debt ceiling in place.

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