Monday, September 9, 2013

Syria to allow international control of its chemical weapons?

This is a big game changer, and welcome news.

Monday morning, Secretary of State John Kerry said that Syria could avoid a strike by giving up all of its chemical weapons.  Right after that, Russia proposed that Syria give up its chemical weapons to the international community to be destroyed.

In other words, the perfect outcome.  As I wrote two weeks ago:
"This doesn't mean that the US strike unilaterally, now.  What the US could do, is demand that the UN be allowed to go in and destroy (or remove) all chemical weapons on both sides, and quickly.  Without agreement, the US will therefore have a green light to unilaterally take out those chemical weapons."
Now, this is not the end game.  The devil is in the details, after all.

Firstly, the US will need to keep up the pressure and pass a resolution to allow for a military strike, or at least wait long enough to have the UN pass a resolution.  Without it, Syria has the room to wiggle and ignore the proposal.

Secondly, following the post-1990 Gulf War experience, the US must be careful to write in specific punitive relief if Syria plays the same games as Saddam Hussein's regime did.  Delays and other tactics should result in punitive measures such as the set up of UN-protected  FSA-controlled regions within Syria, with 100 mile DMZs.  Each delay results in newly established protected zones that encroach on government-controlled sections.

Thirdly, the UN must provide allowances to line Syria's borders adjacent to Lebanon, with peacekeepers to block the outflow of chemical weapons to Hezbollah.

And that is how you intervene to remove chemical weapons, with the best outcome.  You see, unlike the majority of people, I do think it is an important US goal to remove chemical weapons from Syria.

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