Saturday, April 6, 2013

March 2013 BLS jobs report: Four things you probably didn't know.

The March 2013 BLS employment report is out, and the shocking disappointment is that there were just 88,000 new jobs in March.  And just as I said that Q4-2012 GDP would be revised upward from a negative to a positive number (which it was), so too, I believe that this number will be revised upward.

I'm here to frame this report into the larger picture, in four points:
  1. Since January 2010, there have been 8 months with worse employment creation data.
  2. The number is about half that of ADP's March 2013 Employment Report of private employment: 158,000.  This gives most people the sense that the BLS number will be revised upward.
  3. We might or might not be seeing the effects of sequestration, but the fact remains, we've been on a long downward trend of federal employment -- seasonally adjusted -- for the last several years, excluding the one-time bump of temporary Census workers.  Its percentage of total non-farm employment has also shrunk, faster than at any time in the last 13 years.
  4. The total non-farm job growth rate is remarkably similar to that of the mid-2000s.




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