Now I know that people are going to say that Colin Kaepernick is a dynamic quarterback who runs the read-option, and that it is difficult to defend (and it's true) -- see the success of Washington with RG-III and Seattle with Russell Wilson.
Up until I looked at the numbers and had the CBS morning coverage of the game playing, I thought that SF would literally run away in the Super Bowl, against Baltimore. Now, I don't think so.
First, Baltimore used Dennis Dixon on the practice squad to mimic Kaepernick (as reported on CBS' coverage). You couldn't ask for a better guy to get the defense ready for the read-option than Dennis Dixon, the guy who, under Chip Kelly's offense, was very good.
Second, they say defenses win games, and if this were the regular season, I'd suspect that SF would be the favorite. But postseason, it is said that the veterans come out to play hard, and when it comes to scoring defense, Baltimore seems to have shown up big time. Despite allowing far more yards than the regular season, in three games they've done a better job at stopping opponents from scoring. Baltimore is a very veteran team, especially when it comes to playoff appearances.
Regular season:
- SF ppg allowed = 17.1
- SF ypg allowed = 294.4
- Baltimore ppg allowed = 21.5
- Baltimore ypg allowed = 350.9
Postseason:
- SF ppg allowed = 27.5
- SF ypg allowed = 414.5
- Baltimore ppg allowed = 19
- Baltimore ypg allowed = 415
Yes, I know that Nate Silver, also referencing that very good defenses win, picked SF based on data from the regular season.
But like I said, postseason is where the veterans turn it up a notch and leave nothing on the field; you cannot underestimate how much harder Ray Lewis will be playing, in his final game of his career. And again, SF and Baltimore have clearly diverged in their postseason defensive stats.
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