Thursday, February 28, 2013

Q4-2012 US GDP revised to a net positive.

Last month, I wrote in a blog entry (over Marco Rubio's response to the SOTU address):
"He [Rubio] said that GDP shrank the last 3 months; not true at all.  As the BEA report showed, in the last quarter GDP grew, just not as fast as inflation.  And other economic indicators point to an upward adjustment to a positive GDP number."

Well, we got that upward adjustment, just as I thought we would.

In its revised estimate, the BEA pushed the initial -0.1%, GDP adjusted for inflation, up to +0.1%, but critically, the nominal GDP number increased from +0.5% to +1.0%.   I think it will go higher.  Q3-2012 GDP was revised upward in each of two estimates following the headline report, and, while I didn't report on this at the time, Macroeconomic Advisers' report on December GDP implied much stronger growth than the +0.1% reflects.

And to reiterate the point about GDP and the Republican quest to cut federal spending: the largest driver of a low GDP in the fourth quarter, was reduced government spending.

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