Monday, May 21, 2012

Greek nightmare or Greek rebalancing?

I've been reading a few horror stories of what might happen if Greece chooses to leave the Euro currency.  In particular I'm amused (and confused) as to this Reuters article.  It prefaces a Greek exit by describing the current woeful state of affairs for Greeks, then goes on to say that if Greece were to exit the Euro currency, things would get worse for the indigent.

I'm curious how the current state of affairs is supposed to get better, when the EU is demanding Greece cut deeper, before it will provide more loans.  It's as if Angela Merkel, walking around in a $1000 suit looks down on a homeless Greek family and tells them, "I know you're suffering, but you need to suffer more, and you will be better for it!"

Or maybe what they're saying is, that next month miracles will occur and the indigent shall suddenly find money in their pockets from the confidence fairy?

Yes, there is great uncertainty in what would occur and there will be some chaos, but to prophesize that more suffering would necessarily ensue, is more a scare tactic than reality.  Or to put it in another way: Greece will never recover until its balance of payments are adjusted properly, but staying with the Euro will ensure that it will be a very long and painful process.  At least if Greece leaves the Euro, they have a fighting chance to avoid a decade-long Depression.

The problem as I see it, really comes down to rebalancing Greece's balance of payments.  Take for instance the chart below, juxtaposing a handful of EU nations with their balance of payments.


It is glaringly obvious that Germany's BoP stands in stark contrast to several other Euro countries.  Germany heavily benefited from the transition to the Euro, starting in 2000.


When you look closer at Germany's BoP, you can see just how dramatically positive the move to the Euro has been for Germany, moving from a mild deficit to a massive net positive.

Meanwhile, the opposite is true for Greece.


It is true that for some time before its move to the Euro, Greece had been sliding downward with a net outflow of payments.  But the move to the Euro exacerbated its condition.

Now look at how international trade as a percentage of GDP compares among those same nations.


Some things to note:

  1. For the most part, European countries more or less tracked along with each other until the Euro was introduced, at which point Germany's economy diverged from most everyone else's.
  2. With nearly 45% of its GDP reliant on international trade, you can understand why Germany might be concerned with a successful Greek exit that would pave the way for other periphery nations to leave the Euro currency.  If Greece and other current Eurozone nations were able to float their own currencies against the Euro, their cost of debt and their cost of labor would decrease, and Germany would lose out.
  3. A basic tenet of capitalism, is that there are winners (Germany) and losers (Greece and others).  So far the EU has only kicked the issue further down the road.
For Greece to stay in the Euro, it has to become price competitive.  Sounds simple in abstract terms, but in practice...well you already know the state of Greece.

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