That Wave Really is Coming

So it actually didn't take up a lot of time to compile the list of Republicans in the House (because I found a Google spreadsheet that Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report had created and provided public access to) who are vulnerable, based on the current magic number, 56.7%. That number is the 2016 win% of a given GOP representative that, given Donald's current popularity% with GOP, would make those Republicans vulnerable.

Okay, maybe you think I'm crazy. Well, the average and median change in vote gap between 2016 and 2017 elections is 17.7pp and 18.5pp respectively. Every one of the people in the list below had a lower win% gap.

There are 38 Republicans who fit the description. From most vulnerable to least, here they are:

1. New York-22 Claudia Tenney
2. Minnesota-2 Jason Lewis
3. Texas-23 Will Hurd
4. Alabama-2 Martha Roby
5. Nebraska-2 Don Bacon
6. California-49 Darrell Issa
7. Alaska-AL Don Young
8. Colorado-6 Mike Coffman
9. Kansas-3 Kevin Yoder
10. California-10 Jeff Denham
11. Virginia-10 Barbara Comstock
12. Michigan-11 Dave Trott
13. Florida-26 Carlos Curbelo
14. California-25 Steve Knight
15. Iowa-3 David Young 
16. Florida-18 Brian Mast
17. Iowa-1 Rod Blum
18. Pennsylvania-16 Lloyd Smucker
19. Utah-4 Mia Love
20. New York-19 John Faso
21. New Jersey-7 Leonard Lance
22. Indiana-9 Trey Hollingsworth
23. Illinois-12 Mike Bost
24. Pennsylvania-8 Brian Fitzpatrick
25. Colorado-3 Scott Tipton
26. Maine-2 Bruce Poliquin
27. Florida-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
28. Michigan-1 Jack Bergman
29. Michigan-7 Tim Walberg
30. Michigan-8 Mike Bishop
31. North Carolina-13 Ted Budd
32. Texas-7 John Culberson
33. Texas-24 Kenny Marchant
34. Montana-AL Ryan Zinke *
35. Florida-3 Ted Yoho
36. Minnesota-3 Erik Paulsen
37. North Carolina-2 George Holding
38. California-21 David Valadao

Now go out and target these folks with solid Democratic candidates for the midterms.

* -- I kept Ryan Zinke in there as a gauge. I think Greg Gianforte overperformed, so I think the true target list doesn't end at Zinke. Having said that, even if this is a poor assumption and Zinke is the cutoff, there are more than enough Republican seats above him to take back the House.