That Wave is Coming

Tonight, Karen Handel defeated Jon Ossoff in the Georgia 6th District special election. People are deflated on the left while the right is ecstatic. But everyone is missing the real nature of what's going on.

Sure, a win would have been spectacular, but you shouldn't pay attention to wins because these are solid red seats in solid red states, or at least they were supposed to be. Remember, Republicans control these state legislatures so they control redistricting, ensuring that these seats are solidly red by splitting apart concentrations of blue voters. The numbers show a completely different story than the one the news media and politicians are saying.

Let me explain it in a graph and a table, the trend that people are not understanding.

It's always going to be difficult to flip Republicans who remain loyal to the party over the direction of the country, which means that the reddest seats in the reddest states are not so easy to flip. If we multiply Donald's GOP support rate by the 2016 vote numbers in the 2017 special elections, the outcomes are very closely matching the expectations.

	2016 Vote	2017 Vote	DT's GOP Approval #	Predicted	Expected v Actual
Kansas 4th - Mike Pompeo	60.70%	52.50%	90%	54.63%	-2.13%
Montana At-large - Ryan Zinke	56.20%	50.20%	88%	49.46%	0.74%
Georgia 6th - Tom Price	61.70%	51.90%	88%	54.30%	-2.40%
South Carolina 5th - Mick Mulvaney	59.20%	51.10%	88%	52.10%	-1.00%

See the expected(projected) versus actual number? The one race where the Democrat technically underperformed was in Montana's at-large race. Democrats have actually outperformed expectations.

Democrats poured money into Georgia's 6th but mostly ignored South Carolina's 5th but that one was even narrower! But here's the real kick in the pants chart.

While everyone's focused on these red seats in red states, apparently everyone's forgotten about the dozens of purple seats in purple and blue states.

For instance, if midterms were actually held today with Donald's GOP support at 88%, every House GOP who had won their 2016 election by 56.7% (= 49.9% / 88%) or lower is truly vulnerable. That means Darrell Issa (50.3%) is going to lose. Were I willing to spend hours tabulating the numbers, I could provide a definitive number of truly vulnerable seats. I don't have that much time to spend.

Imagine what happens when multiple people surrounding Donald are indicted, or worse, the independent counsel's report recommends that Donald be prosecuted for Obstruction? His GOP support will drop. Each small drop means the wave election gets bigger.

So you see, there is a wave election coming and it's going to be massive -- you just need to be patient and diligent.