About Donald's Approval Rating

Over the weekend Donald tweeted Rasmussen's daily presidential job approval rating tracking number because it hit 50%. Sadly for him, today it dropped back down below 50%. But this episode prompted a thought about what level his approval number needed to reach before Republicans acted against him, whether through impeachment or disassociation.

What if Donald's support from Republicans dropped to 50%? 50% is not an arbitrary number; it marks the point where the reddest of districts of the reddest of states are split evenly.

Using SurveyMonkey's most recent polling data, 88% of Republicans currently approve of Donald. At a Republican approval rate of 50% -- assuming all other groups (Democrats, Independents, unaffiliated) remained at the current levels -- the overall approval rating would drop to 32%.

At a Republican approval rate of 50% -- assuming all other groups dropped support at the same rate as Republicans -- the overall approval rating would drop to 25%.

If it matters to anyone, here are the basic algebraic equations for both numbers (FTR, I never cared much about math in high school):

Basic equation: (R*RCA)+(D*DCA)+(I*ICA)+(X*XCA)=100*AA 

AA -- All adults approval rate (43%)
R -- percent of Republicans in poll (28%)
D -- percent of Democrats in poll (31%)
I -- percent of Independents in poll (36%)
X -- percent of unaffiliated (5%) 

RCA -- Republican current approval rate (88%)
DCA -- Democratic current approval rate (10%)
ICA -- Independent current approval rate (39%)
XCA -- Unaffiliated extrapolated current approval rate (solve for XCA in the formula above) 

RUA -- Republican updated approval rate (50%)
TDR -- Total Decline Rate = (RUA/RCA)  

Equation for first #: (R*RUA)+(D*DCA)+(I*ICA)+(X*XCA)=100*AA

Equation for second #: (R*RUA)+(D*TDR*DCA)+(I*TDR*ICA)+(X*TDR*XCA)=100*AA

In the worst-case scenario, we'd have to wait until his approval rating dropped to 25% before Republicans acted on Donald's presidency with a sense of urgency.

But in reality, that's not the real target, Long before we hit that 50% GOP approval number, a whole lot of Republicans in purplish districts and states will have been overwhelmed by Donald's disapproval numbers.

Having said all that, I tend to think the opposite way; I think the disapproval number matters more. Lower approval numbers signal disinterest whereas higher disapproval numbers signal anger. Remember, they track three points: approval, disapproval, no opinion/no response/unsure.

If 2/3rds of the country disapproves of Donald, regardless of party, that points to a massive wave election is coming.