Predicting the election 96 days ahead.

96 days to go, and I figure why wait to make a prediction:

• Obama 328 Romney 210 -- electoral college
• Obama 51.5% Romney 46.5% -- national popular vote

RCP allows you to build your own electoral college map.

HuffPo's adjusted their electoral map now, and shows Obama winning, even without winning Florida, North Carolina or West Virginia, but Obama's trending up in polling aggregate, in Florida, and continues to lead in West Virginia.

HuffPo shows Obama already ahead, with just 3 toss-up states left.

There is no such thing as a sure bet, but as Obama had shown four years ago in his debates with John McCain, he's very strong, one-on-one.  Also, Mitt's given Obama a wide range of weak rhetoric that, face-to-face, is easily rebutted.  Then there's the long list of topics that Mitt insists no one needs to know, whether it is his tax filings or his offshore accounts.  And finally, there's a vast range of confused messages from Mitt where he's played both sides to whomever he's speaking to.

It's not impossible for Mitt to win, but Mitt's done nothing to break out of his ceiling; in fact, he's done a lot to ensure that ceiling remains, by falling flat on his face in his gaffes-a-minute European Vacation.