Seattle 27 - Denver 24

I did a couple of calculations on a few seasons and it seemed to prove that Seattle was a clear favorite, so I decided to check the numbers for 2003 - 2013 to see if this was a true interpretation.  I pitted offensive scoring against defensive scoring during the respective regular season.

• Having a better scoring offense doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be.  In fact, based simply on offensive scoring gap (the difference between each team's ppg), the numbers are evenly split (5-5-1).  No SB winner since 2003 has won with a scoring offense gap greater than 5.9.  To the contrary, three games since 2003 have resulted with the loser having a scoring offense gap larger than 5.9, including 2008 where the loser had a 13.5 ppg higher scoring offense than the winner.  Were Denver to win, the scoring offensive gap would be an unprecedented 11.5; as 2008 has shown, were Seattle to win, it would not set a precedence. Advantage: Seattle
• Having a better scoring defense doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be.  The better scoring defense is 4-6-1 (tied because both SB participants had the same ppg scoring defense average).  However it's important to note that when the better defense won, its ppg gap during the regular season was higher than when they lost, which implies that the bigger the gap, the more likely the better defense wins.  For the record, Seattle holds a 10.5 ppg advantage over Denver (2009 Pittsburgh had a higher gap (+12.7), which is to say that Denver's defense is bad, and they would set a remarkable precedence if Denver pulls out a win, but if Seattle wins, they would not set a precedence.  Advantage: Seattle
• Pitting regular season offense scoring against defense scoring, the defense holds a slight advantage, 6-5 since 2003.  But if you average the scoring differential between the two teams, there's a clear tendency for winners to have a significant lean towards having a better defense.  Advantage: Seattle

If I were betting, I'd take Seattle with the +2.5 point spread, definitely.  However, if Denver wins, they will have set a few precedence; that's entirely possible, but I'm about normative trends and a Denver win feels like an outlier beyond what is possible.  If they had a stronger defense (Denver's defense was ranked 22nd in the regular season), they would not be outliers in the numbers.

Bet on the trend, not the bias?  Hard to say, because I'm biased towards Seattle.  Still, one would think that the more likely outcome is a Seattle win.  And hey, I have a 50-50 chance of getting the outcome right.  ;)

Go Hawks. :D