10 thoughts for February 24, 2014

1. Nokia showed off THREE Android-based phones at MWC.  Amusing, don't you think?  They don't have the exacting operation of Windows Phone, but they nonetheless use the theme of tiles and flat design and sans serif light text of WP.    In fact, they're actually going to hide -- by omission -- the fact that Android is at the center of the OS.
2. That Nokia would show off 3 phones based on Android makes almost no sense.  In scenario A, they're trying to slash dev costs and increase rev by using a free OS, but nonetheless must spend lots of time and money in its adaption of their heavily modified fork of Android Open Source Project (AOSP), while also forcing app devs to adapt their code to this fork -- a zero sum game.  In scenario B, they're trying to undermine Google by attracting low-end buyers to its forked Android which does not include any of Google's standard apps, but that marginalizes the appeal to their forked Android by limiting consumer choice -- a net negative result.  In scenario C, they're dipping their toes into the waters of a forked Android ecosystem to see if they can move the entire Windows Phone platform to it; all the benefits and negatives of the previous scenarios, plus one huge net negative when considering that Microsoft would be essentially trusting Google to maintain AOSP as opposed to closing it down at some point in the future -- a neg negative outcome.
3. I previously argued -- years ago -- that Nokia made an error by not adopting Android and heavily skinning it just as Amazon did.  Between then and now, Nokia hasn't regained its former market share (and in fact lost a substantial amount for years) and it has been bought out (the devices division) by Microsoft.  In other words, they missed their opportunity window.  They continue to think just one step ahead.  If they really wanted to get out of the Windows Phone ecosystem, they first need to go straight to an unskinned Android to gain the experience and expertise while building fans in the company's name (Nokia phones).  The second step -- to move to its own heavily skinned Android -- can then follow, once they have rebuilt the base of Nokia hardware fans.
4. I don't understand the smart watch / fitness tracker thing.  You mean to say, you can't tell if you haven't walked enough steps?  Are you telling me that you can't tell the time fast enough by pulling your smart phone or tablet out?  Is it really the case that you can't tell what your heart rate is?  Or maybe I should say that it is disconcerting if people can't generally guess how much exercise they've done in a week, discern the difference in their heart rates at resting and elevated rates, or that they're having to look at their arms every minute to find out what time it is.  So that's why I can't figure out what Samsung is trying to do with its three new smart watches and its new fitness tracker.
5. Speaking of Samsung...here comes the Galaxy S5.  It slices and dices, blends, crushes and even includes something called a smart phone.  I'm almost sure that it'll cost about as much as the most expensive phone on the market, aka the iPhone.
6. About that terribly written SB1062 from Arizona's Republican-controlled government: We now have some leading Republicans within Arizona calling for their Republican governor to veto, even though they voted for the bill.  According to them, the bill has built up false notoriety for the state.  Never mind that the bill was poorly written and is a lot worse than most of its opponents have described.  Weird.
7. Politically speaking, watch as the public discussion on the ACA turns from a net-negative to a net-positive.  Today, insurers surged with increased enrollment.  And, as we get closer to the March 31st deadline to meet the ACA's critical deadline for consumers to avoid paying a very modest penalty for 2014, the numbers are growing so fast that some have suggested that late March the exchanges will collapse from peak usage, at some point in late-March.
8. Today there was an X4.9 solar flare, which is quite large and bad news if it were directed towards Earth.  It was not directed towards Earth, so, good news, as the auroras should be decent in a couple of days.
9. Mt. Gox, the biggest Bitcoin market, has been shut down.  Apparently what really pushed them over the edge was a flaw in the system -- it's being debated if it was isolated or widespread -- with the acknowledgement that they had lost nearly 750K Bitcoins over the years.  Tally that up to the last traded value (before they were shut down) and you get over $100M lost.  If you go back a few weeks, it's closer to $0.5B lost.  The entire Bitcoin market, as a result, is dropping quickly.
10. I guess this means that I was wrong: Bitcoin is failing, not because pricing issues over a finite commodity, but because of a lack of confidence in the system itself.  The rush to pull out of the market, shows that Bitcoin is rather useless as a currency, yet again.  (Surprise?!?!)