Tuesday, February 4, 2014

No, 2.5M jobs aren't going away because of the ACA. (updated)

Wow, I am disappointed yet again, that the news media and frankly too many journalists on the internet can't wrap their minds around what the CBO report actually said.  Here's an excerpt explaining what they're actually projecting:
CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor—given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive." 
"The reduction in CBO’s projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024."
So, the CBO is not saying that 2.5M workers will be displaced; they are saying that the equivalent hours of 2.5M full-time workers -- or 100M hours a week -- will be collectively reduced, voluntarily, by Americans who understand that working less hours gives them a better return on their labor.

So, if you know that working 30 hours a week rather than 35 hours a week will reduce your federal subsidies, you will presumably figure it out and request to work just the 30 hours a week.  If you have 8 people choosing to work 30 hours instead of 35, then you have one full-time-equivalent worker's hours reduced.  That does result in one less worker, now does it?  Of course not!

These sorts of distortions happen all the time.  Are you really going to complain about Social Security because it encourages people to stop supplying labor once they reach retirement age?  Are you really going to complain about pension rules that encourage people to quit once they've become fully vested?

It is unbelievable how pathetic the news media is.

Update: The news media finally caught up.  From the LA Times:
Even House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) felt the need to get things straight at his hearing Wednesday on the CBO report. "Just to understand," he queried CBO Director Doug Elmendorf, "it's not that employers are laying people off?"
"That's right," Elmendorf replied.
So there you go, even Paul Ryan is trying to make clear that the CBO's report did not tacitly or otherwise imply that the ACA would lead to job losses.  Why the sudden rush to clarity for some Republicans?  Because they are trying to push their own plan, which, when implemented would result in similar economic distortions.  What's the public to think of Republicans, when presenting their own plan, are confronted with the truth that their bill will contribute to a reduction in FTE loss in hours?  Well, if you haven't figure out the GOP deal, you might never find the real truth.

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