Friday, August 2, 2013

About the July 2013 employment report.

There are many stories worth paying attention to, but here are three that get short shrift from the media because, well, they're not interested.  Hopefully you are, though.

To start with, the July employment report showed a gain of 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropped to 7.4% (from 7.6%).  Good news more or less.  So here are the three stories about the employment report you probably won't hear from other outlets:

Job creation under different political powers
Job creation under Obama has been stronger and faster than under Bush.  Don't forget that under Bush, we saw two tax cut bills approved by an all-Republican government, one of which included rebate checks from the IRS.  Meanwhile under Obama we saw one stimulus bill passed by an all-Democrat government.


Which one did better?  Obama, of course.  Yet the media and pundits will often describe with frustration, that the economic recovery has been slow.  While you can see that job creation has been faster and sooner under Obama than under Bush, the reality is that there was a big hole created by the 2008 - 2009 recession.  As it goes: The deeper the hole, the harder it is to get back on top.

And it implies that, had Larry Summers provided President Obama with Christina Romer's original stimulus numbers, we may have gotten out of the hole even faster.

A recovery based on part-time job growth?
In a word, no.  A look under the jobs data shows that, while part-time employment based on economic choices (slack demand / unable to find full-time jobs) continues to remain high, the percentage of part-time jobs to total nonfarm payrolls hasn't gone up.  Actually, it has gone down -- in other words, part-time work is not growing faster than regular jobs -- even if it is doing so, slowly.



Federal employment under different political powers
Everyone just knows that federal jobs have exploded under Obama, right?  Note however, that there are fewer federal employees now, than at the start of the Obama Administration.


Now, some might look at that chart and point to proof of an explosion of jobs, except, that spike was due to the US Census -- the same spike that occurs every decade.  And, if you look back a few more decades, you'll notice that federal employment increased under Reagan, and today, we're nowhere near that level of federal employees!



And there you go.  Three different stories about our employment situation, over the Bureau of Labor Statistic's July 2013 employment report release.

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