5 Thoughts for January 5, 2017

1. The Disappearing Federal Government: Contrary to the popular narrative, the US government's employment had been declining (excluding the one-time bump for the US Census) since the Great Recession of 2008, until it bottomed out in May 2014. Since then, it's been growing very slowly. In comparison to the start of Obama's presidency, federal jobs as a percentage of total non-farm have decreased from 2.1% to 1.94%. Now, with Republicans attempting to revive a rule that would allow Congress to directly set civil service wages at the individual employee level, there will be a mass exodus from federal civil service. One year from now, you will feel this effect, whether from a slow-responding FEMA to lengthy waits for responses from EPA, etc. Even if they don't go forward with their rule enforcement, the threat alone of a political litmus test on lifelong civil servants will cause the mass exodus. You're probably thinking, "but won't conservative people rush to fill those jobs?" I'm sure they will so long as they can pass the civil service exam, but the bigger problem is the loss of expertise up and down the government, which can't be replaced so easily. 
2. The Boy Who Cried Wolf: I often point out that one of the most plausible scenarios to play out in the Emperor Donodus Administration is one where his intemperate personality (and tweeting) bumps into some despotic leader who is himself (or herself) narcissistic and ego-driven; the butting heads escalate until that despotic leader throws the switch and we have a serious war, possibly nuclear. But, there is also the exact opposite problem: Emperor Donodus' threats are ultimately viewed as empty rhetoric and the world -- particularly our adversaries -- ignores him; as a narcissist, this would enrage him, forcing him to act with...intemperate force. Either way, I think the odds are very high that we'll be in at least one very serious war, soon. Sooner or later, even a madman has to use force to show that he's crazy enough to use force.
3. Obamacare: It's almost comical how Republicans don't get Obamacare at all, so much so, that they're threatening mass chaos within the healthcare system but don't realize it. I'll have a lengthier post on this later, but suffice to say, when the ACA was passed it set off a series of dominoes within the healthcare industry that required a lot of money; repealing Obamacare will have extreme consequences, possibly creating a recession. Just the slashing of spending, alone, is worth over $250B and that's not taking into account private investment to accommodate the influx of the newly insured. This will not end well.
4. Chicago Torture Video: I refuse to watch a second of someone being tortured. That anyone could treat a vulnerable person this way is disgusting, but to live-stream the video for their friends to see is so vile, they do not deserve any consideration of leniency, whether from the judicial system or from God. Such bullying has, from when I was a little kid, always pissed me off. 
5. The Emperor's Intelligence Apparatus: At various times in our nation's history, there have been some leaders who've used the nation's intelligence apparatus to gather intel on personal enemies. I fully expect that once The Emperor gains the keys to the office, he's going to make full use of it and spy on his enemies and work to undermine them; The Emperor will directly engage in corporate espionage and hand off inside information to his enemy's enemies. This is why we needed the red tape bureaucracy of the courts to be firmly attached to all those Patriot Act-related laws, and why it's now too late to do anything about it, as the Republicans have barely any regard to such civil rights, with the exception of a couple of senators, Rand Paul and Mike Lee. This is why there's a sudden rush to warn about the threat of The Emperor and to get the word out on privacy best practices. This is where multifactor authentication does you no good; the gov't can get at your data if the host company has the encryption keys to your data. Journalists and political operatives have to ditch the convenience of their Gmail accounts in lieu of end-to-end encryption tools -- I'm sorry, but that's where this nation is headed.