November 2012 comScore US Mobile OS: The iPhone5 bounce / buh bye to WP?

It doesn't show in comScore's November report, but Apple's increase was all in November, as September and October remained at 34.3% -- something worth noting in regards to the iPhone 5 introduction, as it is now quite clear that a lot of people had been holding off for several months for the iPhone 5.

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Nov. 2012 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2012 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
	Aug-12	Nov-12
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%
Google	52.6%	53.7%
Apple	34.3%	35.0%
RIM	8.3%	7.3%
Microsoft	3.6%	3.0%

I want to explain something here about the November comScore US mobile OS numbers: After extrapolation of comScore's total mobile subscriber estimates, both RIM and Microsoft have dropped in customer numbers, not just percentage points; this despite a growing mobile market.

Since September 2010, the month before the launch of Microsoft's Windows Phone OS, Microsoft's total mobile customers has dropped from 5,811,300 to 3,699,000 -- that's a 2.1M  / 36.3% drop.

Why single out Microsoft?  Because they've spent probably several hundred million dollars or so in product placement and broadcast / online advertisements over the last two years, yet for all the money that they've spent, they've only marginally outperformed RIM (and RIM's been really bad).  Now remember, RIM's been stuck on BB7 for this entire time and has gone through the turmoil of the ouster of co-CEOs, and repeated delays of BB10, and has barely spent money advertising.

I cannot help but see this as a dire situation for Microsoft's mobile OS, because for one, BB10 will allow RIM's customers to run Android apps, but secondly, RIM once dominated the enterprise, which is the same area that Microsoft targeted, with its decision to tie-in Windows 8's UI with WP's live tiles.  We know that Windows 8 sales are languishing behind Vista, in terms of market buy-in after initial release, so there is no logical reason to expect either Windows 8 nor WP to suddenly witness an uptake in adoption.

I give slightly better odds that RIM will outperform Microsoft, once BB10 comes out; possibly even taking back some market share from Android, if they are able to license BB10 to other mobile players.