On WP7, Nokia, Palm, iOS, RIM and Android.

In 2008 I said Android was going to be huge, though that was probably more wishful thinking than anything else.  I did put my money where my mouth was however, and bought the first generation G1 Android phone.  Still running, by the way, though on a second battery.

In early 2009 when Palm intro'd WebOS and the Pre at the 2009 CES, I said even before sales began, that it was a mistake for Palm with so little cash, to embrace development of its own OS and hardware.  At the same time, I said it was a brilliant move by Motorola to embrace Android, for exactly the same reasons why I thought Palm was making a mistake.

And by the way, I've never been a fan of RIM.  Anyone who followed tech knew that email was going mobile, so what place does RIM have, in a mobile email world?  RIM service is an early 21st century idea whose time has come and gone, much like how the Danger Sidekick's advantage (texting) has been turned obsolete with the range of smartphones.  Its tablet does seem interesting, though.

Then last November, WP7 came out, and the day I saw the screen, I knew it was a failure, and here's why: it's just another niche product, and one that will be at least partially displaced by the Facebook Android phone.  Heck, people with Androids running Moto Blur are already enjoying the functionality (and then some) of WP7's social networking push notification GUI. 

This is how I describe desperation: a willingness to buy into (Nokia's) market share, without having to prove one's virtues.  Out in countries all around the world, WP7 has lost Microsoft mobile OS market share since its introduction.  Either consumers are unaware of WP7 or they're simply disinterested, but either way, the outlook is not very bright for WP7.  It's almost a rerun of Palm's WebOS Pre...lots of ads, but disappointing growth.

And well, Microsoft's tablet strategy is nothing more than to have manufacturers install Windows7 Starter onto tablets.  It'll be another year or two, before Microsoft has a tablet OS strategy in place for OEMs, and by that time, it'll be too late -- trust me.

Why is Nokia doomed?  Because it abandoned its own open source engineers for a closed system.  Nokia's shortcoming is due to a lack of ability to focus on one OS.  Think about it: Nokia's got Symbian, Maemo and MeeGo, the last two of which are partially based on Linux.  So to focus its energy on one OS, it's decided to abandon all three, and go with WP7.  Mistake.  MeeGo's got Myriad's Alien Dalvik - a JavaVM emulator, that would allow MeeGo products to run Android apps.  Nokia's Elop is so antagonistic against Google (Microsoft's lead competitor) that it appears there is intransigence against anything Android-related.  Elop even said so the other day, when he commented that Nokia's goal is to beat Android (never mind that there's also RIM and iOS).

And when I say that Nokia is doomed, what I really mean is that Elop will be gone in less than two years, though it might occur as early as calendar Q1-2012, and that Nokia might end up selling itself to a Chinese competitor or to Google.  Lord knows, Google has longed for the ability to make its own mobile phones, if only to push other manufacturers to incorporate new technologies at a much faster pace.  But if tossed out early enough, Nokia might be able to salvage MeeGo.

I'm calling it: Ballmer is out as CEO at Microsoft, by 2013, when investors realize that Ballmer and company completely missed out on the tablets and smart phone markets.