Everyone Opposes Trumpcare.

It's official: AARP (elderly), AMA (doctors), AHA (hospitals), and AHIP (insurers) all oppose Trumpcare;. The problem facing Republicans isn't something that can be solved in mark-up, either. There are three sides: (1) A group of moderate Republicans want to fix the ACA while (2) the Establishment Conservatives want to repeal and replace while (3) Freedom Caucus Republicans want to simply repeal and leave it at that.

Even the Establishment Conservatives pushing Trumpcare know that it's a terrible plan and that is why they're desperately trying to get it through committee and passed before the CBO can score it -- and that's even after the GOP House passed a rule in 2015 requiring CBO to use dynamic scoring! -- or at least preemptively attack the CBO in case their scoring does come back before the bill is voted on.

What is dynamic scoring? In short, macroeconomic feedback. More accurately, voodoo economics. They think that by giving rich people money it will trickle down to us poor folk, aka the lower 98%.

Without the CBO's portion of scoring, Congress' Joint Committee on Taxation has already stated that the repeal and replace plan would add $265B to the federal debt over the next 10 years. That is to say, that by cutting back the taxes imposed under the ACA, Trumpcare will end up adding to Trump's budget woes. When CBO's numbers come in, it's all but assured that Trumpcare will drop an extremely deep hole in the federal debt.

But it gets a lot worse.

Many, as do I, believe that there will be a pas de deux between people dropping out of rising prices and prices rising faster, culminating in the collapse of the individual market.

Trump and some Republicans foolishly think that the alternative to their crappy plan is to wait it out and let the ACA collapse on its own. That's not what's going to happen, and I can confidently say this because most of the insurers have pegged 2017 as the year they stabilize and earn a profit. That means that, having raised prices to compensate for the loss of money owed them under the law -- which Republicans refused to fund and constricted how HHS could move money around -- health insurers have reached a stable point where they no longer have to raise prices to meet their loss ratios.

Now, that doesn't mean that everything will go smoothly -- after all Trump is a total asshole who will do anything to fuck up something or someone he hates, even if it requires breaking the law -- but that Trump doesn't know WTF he's talking about. Cmon, this is a guy who only has the patience to read from bullet points.

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Update: This chart illustrates the irony of Trumpcare. Notice how the worst-off are red states -- ones that voted for Trump.

CBPP: https://goo.gl/1AngLD