Monday, March 13, 2017

24,000,000

That's the increase in the number of Americans without insurance by 2026, as a result of the current GOP Deathcare plan, aka Trumpcare, according to the CBO.

Put aside your incredulity for a moment and understand that, (1) This is the CBO with a Republican House appointee -- Keith Hill -- at the helm, not some liberal Democratic appointee; (2) the final report is a reflection of a GOP-led Joint Committee on Taxation. In other words, people, Republicans are telling you that the GOP Deathcare / Trumpcare is going to expand the number of uninsured Americans beyond the number who'd signed up for coverage under the ACA.

Republicans -- being partisan -- will tout the estimated savings, roughly $337B over a decade, without telling you that what they're doing is killing Medicaid by slashing spending roughly 25% over the decade. By 2026, CBO estimates that the number of people covered by Medicaid will have decreased by 14M, but that does not mean that this number stops growing. As a matter of fact, because Republicans are using block grants and tying that to a formula of CPI + 1%, they've ensured that Medicaid funding will continue to shrink over time, forcing states to choose to spend more of their own money or slashing the number of people covered. In literal terms, they're saving Medicaid by destroying it.

You can also expect them to tout how Deathcare / Trumpcare is projected to lower average premiums by 2026 by 10% over current law, but they won't explain to you why over the next two years premiums will increase by 15~20% over current law. And if they're especially weasely, they'll lie and tell you that all of this means that you'll be paying 10% less in premiums by 2026 -- note that I've italicized "over current law" for a reason. But if they're plain devils, they won't even address the fact that people in their 50s and early 60s will be hit the hardest with upwards of 20% increases over current law.

"CBO and JCT expect that, over time, fewer employers would offer health insurance to their workers."

I call it Deathcare for a reason: The GOP's plan was always going to place "choice" over "personal expenditures"; anyone who thought otherwise was a fool who bought into superficial lies. The ACA was about expanding coverage and slowing price increases -- you can't accomplish both without a strong mandate requiring everyone to purchase insurance. The Tea Party movement was never about lowering prices for Americans. Without the mandate, some 7M fewer people will be insured through their workplace. Calling it Deathcare is spot on.

Finally, here's the big kicker: The CBO / JCT report is disinclined to believe that the GOP Deathcare / Trumpcare will result in the collapse of the individual market, but if they're wrong, then all bets are off as the number of uninsured will be vastly more than 24M and premiums for everyone will have to skyrocket.

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