5 Thoughts for March 31, 2017

1. Effect of the Tiko 3D Cancellation: When the Tiko 3D team announced on Kickstarter that it was suspending operations leaving some 10,000+ people without printers, it had a notable side effect: The price of Monoprice's cheapest 3D printer spiked, and as soon as supplies ran out, the price shot back down. By using The Tracktor, it's easy to see this effect. It should be obvious that Amazon's using automated demand/supply pricing which is little different than Uber's much complained about demand pricing scheme.
   
   
2. Corporate April Fools: Tomorrow is April Fools Day, but because it's on a Saturday, pranks by corporations are being played out today, not tomorrow, as corporate does not want to come in on the weekend. I enjoy a good prank, but last year I decided that it was all too much of a mainstream thing and no longer fun. The best pranks require a setup but these days most pranks aren't all that elaborate.
3. It's Nunes Your Business: Bad pun, I know, but I feel as though Devin Nunes deserves some extra mockery for saying today that, "those reports are mostly wrong" on who supplied him with intelligence via the White House. The mockery is deserved because, since there were three individuals named and the reports are "mostly" wrong, it means that one of the three identified individuals did supply him with the intelligence. Moreover, he's once again making assertions that escape logic, as the other two may have well been involved in the search of intelligence documents and therefore part of the process of handing him intelligence data. It's as if Nunes would like to have America accept that only the Watergate burglars should have been prosecuted, rather than the planners and the mastermind. You have to understand, Devin's a little 'slow'.
4. Oops: Donald forgot to sign his EO today. I guess he was too tired from staying up all night worrying about what Mike Flynn has to say, eh?
   
   
5. Visual Cues: I offer up this photo of a construction project near me, without commentary, as I think the photo speaks for itself.
   
   
   

Some Notes on Why Repeal of the ACA is Bad

In response to the Freedom Caucus' release of their minimum demands of healthcare legislation, on Twitter Paul Krugman pointed to a December KFF study highlighting the 52M Americans who would see their healthcare costs rise or find themselves dropped from coverage, as a result of a full ACA repeal.

So notice: blue-collar Trump areas have poor health; e.g., WV has much higher rate of preex than US average https://t.co/AdteMQ0P3B

— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) March 31, 2017

That's the first thing worth noting. Those very states who strongly supported Donald happen to also have the nation's highest preexisting conditions rates.

The second point is that those West Virginia miners, who voted for Donald in hopes of coal jobs returning, face the stark problem of not being eligible for coverage -- black lung, anyone? -- once those coal mining companies declare bankruptcy, as they frequently do. If the GOP follow through with their long-held desire to roll back Medicaid, there is nothing left for coal miners to do but to die, painfully and slowly. That's not taking into account the fact that Bob Murray (of Murray Energy, top-5 largest coal companies in the US) admitted that Donald's signature EOs "ending the war on coal" would not actually bring back many jobs. In other words, coal miners voted for a few hundred jobs at the expense of tens of thousands of sick miners.

The third point is to highlight how the millions (roughly 20% of all Americans) of seasonal allergy sufferers who do not have group coverage would see their costs rise.

There are, obviously, a lot more things to cover on this subject, but that's the stuff I wanted to get off my chest for now.

5 Thoughts on Mike Flynn Seeking Immunity

Wow. I wasn't going to comment on this until more information came out, but I do have five quick observations on the revelation that Mike Flynn is seeking immunity.

1. First!: It was only a matter of time that someone would reach out for immunity, but I didn't think Mike Flynn would be first. With all of the growing public evidence against Paul Manafort, I was certain that he would be first. Of all people, Manafort had the most damning public evidence against him and it was all coming out in an avalanche of late. Now, everyone will be watching to see if there's a rush of people looking to get their own immunity deals. Remember, the FBI wants to reach the top of the conspiracy ring and that guy is likely Donald.
2. Hypocrisy: Everyone is seizing on Mike Flynn's hypocrisy for laying out the argument last year that innocent people don't seek out immunity, only to end up seeking immunity. That's the price you pay for gambling in politics, right?
3. Distraction Fingers: Watch over the next 24 hours as Donald's most ardent supporters come out swinging by pointing the distraction finger away from Mike Flynn's admission of seeking immunity. In particular, the world will be paying attention to Donald's Twitter account. Right now the White House has gone completely silent -- are they devising a strategy of distraction? You know that this blockbuster of a story is driving Donald crazy and he's itching to respond.
4. The GOP Camps: I've pored through a handful of conservative outlets to see how they're responding, and there are roughly 4 camps: (1) The angry crowd; (2) The "it's all fake news" denial folks; (3) The people in despair; (4) The Schadenfreude group. It's quite fascinating to see the GOP at war with itself, practically mirroring the Trumpcare infighting.
5. What the FBI Knows: No matter what we publicly know, it should be obvious to most people that the FBI knows a heck of a lot more than has been revealed. If they reject his initial request for immunity, it is likely a signal of confidence that they can catch most everyone else without Flynn divulging any secrets. But if they do accept, it could possibly mean that he's got the info that would secure a conviction of the ring leader -- again, the guy most likely at the top is Donald.

5 Thoughts for March 30, 2017

1. Life Isn't Fair: George Clooney is showing that the world can be repopulated by a bunch of old men, even if it requires younger -- re non-menopausal -- women. I'm sorry to say, life isn't fair. While I am empathetic to women everywhere who want children but are too old, on the inside, there were three little cheers for Clooney and the continued support for the self-centered fantasy of being the last man on Earth.
2. Thoughts -- Streams of Consciousness: It probably goes without saying, the thoughts I post are effectively streams of consciousness. If something becomes more than a stream of consciousness then I'll break it out into a post on a single topic to dig deeper, at which point it's an examination of a thought. In the greater scheme of things, this entire effort of blogging is intended to serve as the annotated source of a future book -- it's a lot easier to track thoughts when you've written them down somewhere.
3. That's So Bush: According to the New York Magazine, at end of Donald's inauguration George W. Bush remarked, "That was some weird shit." It's so true to his character that you can practically hear him saying it. When GWB is calling your shit weird, what he's really saying is that your shit is fucked up, but that GWB's southern influence prevents him from calling it fucked up.
4. Cable News: After watching a couple of days of cable news -- CNN and MSNBC -- it feels as though they're completely dropping the ball. There are multiple shows but they cover the same topic -- Trump-Russia -- frequently reusing the same guests, and it's all "BREAKING NEWS". But when they talk about Trump-Russia, they're mostly failing to set up why the topic is being covered, what the jeopardy is for those involved, and how does this affect us? For instance, today's news centers around how Devin Nunes' sources were revealed, Nunes felt that they were whistleblowers, but by his own words, nothing they revealed has reflected illegal acts. So, the real story should be: Nunes violated the US Constitution's Separation of Powers -- the firewall between Congress and the Executive -- then misdirected his own intelligence leaks as the consequence of the actions of whistleblowers when in fact their actions are not protected by whistleblower laws -- two criminal violations and one constitutional crisis wrapped into one act that is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, highlighting that our government is arbitrarily ignoring laws, for political gain, reducing trust (and process participation) in the federal government. That's just one example. This is why Washington Week is critically important. Unlike cable news, WW digs down.
5. Republicans are Panicking: In a special election to replace Tom Price's House seat in a red seat in Georgia, Democrats have taken advantage of the anger directed at Donald, to boost the chances of a Democrat, Jon Ossoff, even as Republicans have split between candidates and appear to be turned off by Donald. This has put Republicans into a panic, pouring in millions to keep the seat red. In essence, it's the mirroring of the GOP infighting over Trumpcare -- a battle between the grassroots "populism" of culturally conservative communities and the establishment conservatives.

6 Thoughts for March 28, 2017

1. Nexus 5: I replaced the battery in my Nexus 5 once again. It was just $11 via Amazon, and it took just 10 minutes to do even though it's considered a non-replaceable battery. Note to my sister: Just because it says non-replaceable does not mean that it is not replaceable. The problem is, my phone no longer gets security updates -- sad but true -- yet I persist with my phone because it's such a trooper! It is now 3 1/2 years old and on its third battery but I just can't find a midrange that I'm sold on. The closest thing worth getting is the Axon 7, but I figure I can wait until the end of the year before finally moving on, at which point I'm sure the next breed of phones sporting Android "O" will be out.
2. Nokia: It's starting to look like Nokia -- the brand -- is coming back. I said it at the time, Stephen Elop's decision to embrace Windows Phone over Android was a catastrophic mistake. While the sale of Nokia's mobile assets to Microsoft was a boon for Nokia's cash position, it meant that they could not move into mobile for at least two years. It's 2017 and they've got a bunch of phones making their way into the markets with other devices planned. Their stock price reflects all of these points.
   
   
3. Jeff Sessions' Sanctuary Sanctions: Sessions said that the DoJ would block grants to sanctuary cities. That is illegal under the Equal Protection theory of the US Constitution covered by the 5th Amendment, as affirmed under Bolling v Sharpe:
   

   "The concepts of equal protection and due process, both stemming from our American ideal of fairness, are not mutually exclusive. The "equal protection of the laws" is a more explicit safeguard of prohibited unfairness than "due process of law," and therefore we do not imply that the two are always interchangeable phrases. But, as this Court has recognized, discrimination may be so unjustifiable as to be violative of due process."

   Sessions, as the nation's highest lawyer, has the ability to take any sanctuary city to court if he feels that they are violating federal law, but he knows that he can't because prior rulings have shown that the 10th Amendment prevents the federal government from compelling states to enforce federal laws. Either he thinks verbal threats are good enough, or he expects SCOTUS to go against its conservative leanings to embrace federalism. Ha. I think this will end up becoming yet another defeat for Donald.
4. Democrats Willing to Work With Donald?: Donald says that he's ready to work with democrats, but why would democrats want to work with him?
1. He's actively attempting to repeal every progressive policy in government through a series of executive orders;
2. His personal history, whether in the White House or as a businessman, has shown that you'll have to humiliate yourself including being used and discarded when you're no longer useful;
3. His position is from the opposite end of a binary choice -- he presents everything as binary choices -- and your participation is nothing more than propaganda to support his image of a strong leader.
5. Spring in Portland: This is one of the few spring seasons I've witnessed where just about every flower is blooming at the same time. The daffodils, tulips, cherry, pear, and everything else is blooming right now. If only it wasn't such a terribly rainy season. One can count the number of dry days this year on one hand, I suspect.  In just a few days we may reach two straight months of breaking the precipitation record. There are sections along the Willamette that are blocked from access because the water's so high. The folks at the McCormick Pier condos are undoubtedly concerned with a chunk of the concrete walkway submerged. The last time it was this bad was the infamous 1996 floods, except back then, the ground level of many of the apartment units were flooded and the roadway in front was inaccessible except by canoe.
6. Archer Season 7: Archer's Season 7 is now available on Netflix...I'm sorry, but the person you're trying to reach is not available at this time.

EIA Shows Climate Change Effects

Below are two of EIA's charts showing heating degree days and cooling degree days. When the average temperature of a day is higher than 65°F it is a cooling day, if it is lower than 65°F it is a warming day. Over the past 60 years that EIA has been compiling data, winters are becoming warmer and summers are becoming hotter.

I was poring through EIA's data trying to find data of cost-per-BTU by energy source and share of electricity production by energy source when I came across the degree days data. It's quite unmistakable what's going on, and it bypasses any ridiculous notion that climate scientists are manipulating data -- after all, anyone can grab the NOAA daily weather records then calculate total HDD and CDD for any given city and see the same thing.

5 (Political) Thoughts for March 26, 2017

1. Trumpcare Failure -- Freedom Caucus: I'm not saying that the Freedom Caucus folks were right to push for a straight repeal but no replacement, but that would have left fewer uninsured than what Trumpcare would have done. On this point, the far-right had something to stand on, rather than the stupidity that was Trumpcare. Only someone like Donald could make promises of healthcare for everyone without caring about the details that would have cut healthcare for more Americans.
2. Trumpcare Failure -- Tax Cuts: Matt O'Brien wrote the other day that the reason why Republican leadership tried to rush Trumpcare to a vote was because the longer it stuck around, the more the news would have gotten out that the so-called healthcare reform bill was actually just a $1B tax cut for rich people in which Medicaid and subsidies were used to pay for the tax cut. Both Paul Ryan and Donald hinted at this when Ryan suggested that it would make a tax overhaul more difficult and Donald mentioned that he'd learned about parliamentary rules along the way. Both were seemingly pointing to the fact that they would otherwise need 60 senate votes to pass any tax legislation that had an impact over a 10-year period -- reconciliation + Byrd Rule.
3. Trumpcare Failure -- Democrats: When Trumpcare was pulled on Friday, Donald bitterly complained that not a single Democrat supported it. I doubt a single Democrat felt necessary to defend their choice given that Donald hadn't invited or sought advice or votes from them in the first place. Now, according to Reince Priebus, Donald may seek to court Democrats and moderate Republicans to overturn the ACA. Smart but stupid at the same time. It's smart because this has always been the formula to success in almost any bill in Congress. It's also stupid because the only meaningful legislation that will pull in enough Democrats to support is a Medicare for All plan, or something similar -- just look at the popularity of different programs and you'll see why Bernie Sanders announced that he will introduce such a plan. I would prefer a Medicare public option, of course, but I'm not complaining.
4. Crass Donald: The Independent has reported that Donald had a fake invoice made up to present to Germany's Angela Merkel, indicating that Germany owed NATO $375B. That's the sort of stunt a crass person with no class would do, not just because the logic behind it was wrong but that Donald himself has gone through multiple bankruptcies and therefore has failed on multiple times to pay his own bills. He's such a fool, not realizing that Germany can -- and will -- embarrass him personally in front of the world. He does it to himself and he doesn't even realize it.
5. Nancy Pelosi, 💪👩: Many people see Steve Bannon as the big winner in this, as he was able to knock down Paul Ryan -- a guy he did not like and saw as a member of "the swamp". But you know who the real winner is? Nancy Pelosi. She got done what Paul Ryan could not do -- she's The Real Iron Lady. In fact, look at how tight the Democrats are these days, in comparison to what they were like in the 90s and earlier. She doesn't always demand votes but when she does, they listen and hold to unity. My goodness, look at all of the things she'd accomplished in two years! Not a single Speaker of the House in the last 50+ years has done better. In the future, her name will be on buildings and she will be remembered for being one of the strongest women in American politics.

No Donald, That is NOT Irony.

“The irony is that the Freedom Caucus, which is very pro-life and against Planned Parenthood, allows P.P. to continue if they stop this plan!”

This is the realm of tortured logic, not irony. At best, he could argue that it was hypocritical. The intent of AHCA was not to shut down PP, but to repeal the ACA; the PP shutdown is a sweetener placed in there to gain the support of the FC.

This is the sort of stuff you get from having a half-wit in the Oval Office.

However, Steve Bannon's speech to the FC was predictably ironic:

"Guys, look. This is not a discussion. This is not a debate. You have no choice but to vote for this bill."

Bannon's intent was to get members of the FC to vote for the AHCA; instead, he completely turned off the fence-sitters who then proceeded to announce that they would vote against the AHCA.

Also, it shows just how weak Donald and Paul Ryan are, that they can't corral various factions within GOP, unlike Obama and Pelosi back in 2009 and 2010.

Today's Vote Never Happened, But...

Then this happened.

Today's Vote Would Be Meaningless But...

They postponed it yet again.

Donald issued an ultimatum yesterday, and today he blinked. Right after the debate period ended and a vote was scheduled to be taken, the bill was pulled from consideration.

So this is what we know so far: Donald's negotiating skills and tactics suck balls.

Today's Vote is Meaningless, But...

Here's a reminder of what Donald said back in January, just days before he was sworn into office:

Elephant Fail

"lower numbers, much lower deductibles"  

"It’s very much formulated down to the final strokes. We haven’t put it in quite yet but we’re going to be doing it soon."  

"We’re going to have insurance for everybody." 

"There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can’t pay for it, you don’t get it. That’s not going to happen with us." 

"It will be in a much simplified form. Much less expensive and much better."

Trumpcare does none of these things. As a matter of fact, it does exactly the opposite.

5 (Political) Thoughts for March 22, 2017

Wow, what a day. If you only pay attention to broadcast or print news, the only headline today was that Paul Manafort was caught with direct evidence of working for Russia. People, the White House is on fire and that fire has just crawled out of the basement.

1. Devin Nunes Becomes The Story: Shilling for your president is one thing, but then to use his chair at the Intelligence Committee to collect privileged intelligence info involving possible criminal probes or foreign espionage investigations to inform Donald and the public behind the backs of others in Congress, is something else. He could very well be putting the noose around his own neck if he leaked classified information to the press, or impeded a criminal investigation. He's no longer just putting his seat in Congress at risk.
   

   Sen Wyden (On Intel Cmte): "Nunes' statements would appear to reveal classified information, which is a serious concern." pic.twitter.com/552zWuCvPN

   — Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) March 22, 2017

2. Adam Schiff Counters: Without explaining specifics, Schiff countered Nunes' public announcement by stating that "there is more than circumstantial evidence now" of evidence of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. He could very well be reaching, but hours later CNN offered up an explosive story (see next item).
3. CNN Reports US Officials Have Evidence of Collusion: CNN is reporting that US investigators are poring over evidence of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Specifically, one US official has stated, "people connected to the campaign were in contact and it appeared they were giving the thumbs up to release information when it was ready." While the qualifier -- appeared -- should be understood to mean that they do not have recordings of Trump campaign officials giving clear signals, it does suggest that they have established a clear pattern and that they're digging even deeper as a result.
4. Thursday's "The Big Day": On Thursday, the House will vote on the revised Trumpcare bill. As it stands right now, it's headed for failure. It has been pointed out that according to the CBO, Trumpcare would make things worse than if Congress simply repealed the ACA. This has apparently emboldened the Kochs to create a fund to support Republicans who vote against Trumpcare. The vote itself appears to represent little more than symbolism as Republican senators have already stated that the bill is DOA in the Senate, but that symbolism was vastly elevated to a proxy vote on Donald by Donald himself. The best part about it all, however, is that Republicans have set themselves up to a Catch-22 situation: If they vote in favor of Trumpcare, they risk rising anger from the poor and elderly who'll run them out of office in the midterms; if they vote against Trumpcare, they risk losing enthusiasm of party-loyal voters -- this is what makes Thursday "The Big Day". Donald loses, regardless of how the vote goes and he can't see this basic truth.
5. SCOTUS Rebuked Gorsuch: "Rebuked" might be too strong of a word, but effectively, SCOTUS's unanimous 8-0 ruling against a previous Gorsuch decision is surely the closest thing to a rebuke that SCOTUS can offer. In itself, this will not stop Gorsuch from receiving a vote and confirmation, but make no mistake, a majority of Democrats are extremely angry that Republicans have taken to turning a blind eye to the criminal activity used to eventually nominate a conservative to SCOTUS, aka "putting party ahead of country" and "the ends justifying the means". 

AP: Manafort Offered to Help Putin Gov't in 2005

This is going to shake things up quite a bit, making Trump's very bad week even worse. The AP has uncovered a $10M/year contract dating back to 2005, between a close Putin ally and Paul Manafort. Manafort offered up a proposal to influence the US government in order to create favorable conditions for Russia:

"We are now of the belief that this model can greatly benefit the Putin Government if employed at the correct levels with the appropriate commitment to success."

Manafort is in a lot of trouble as he never registered as a foreign agent, and that's a felony. But what if he hid that money from the IRS? That would provide the FBI with a lot of leverage to get Manafort to spill the beans on all sorts of activities further up the chain.

Trump The Puppet, is The Joker

I came across this tonight. Had a good laugh, especially at this one. That's Mark Hamill's voice if you didn't know.

Those Floaty Things in Your Eyes

Most of the time I ignore TED videos, but this one's an exception.



I thought these things were dust particles on the surface of my eyes. The video covers two different phenomena, and I've seen both.

My only issue is the name, Floaters. We all know what floaters really are.

Gallup Polling: Donald is Super....Unpopular

On Sunday, the most recent Gallup daily presidential tracking poll grabbed a lot of eyeballs when it showed Donald's disapproval suddenly shooting up.

That number will fluctuate quite a bit, but the main takeaway is that this guy is simply unpopular out of the gate, which is unprecedented. Reviewing Gallup's 72-year history of presidential approval / disapproval numbers, Donald blows past everyone else at his point in the Oval Office (give or take two weeks).

The question everyone seems to be asking online: How long before he is removed from office? Months ago, I really thought he'd implode by the time the Ides of March came around, but I failed to take into account the intransigence of party loyalty and just how many Americans are willing to wait for Godot. I remain convinced that once his disapproval number reaches 60% and is established as the floor of his disapproval rate, party loyalty will go by the wayside and his administration will collapse.

Take note that his doubling-down on the lie about Obama ordering wiretaps against him can only end in two ways: (1) Being called a liar by members of his own party or (2) Forced to admit to a mistake. Since we know (2) is unlikely, thus, his own party will be forced to call him out as a liar. This should push him into the 60% range of disapproval, not simply because Republicans call him out for lying, but for his reflex-like response of attacking them back.

The Dog With His Own Goals

This Golden Retriever is supposed to run straight through this course, but he has his own goals. At the very end, he looked back and realized that he hadn't quite completed his goals.

5 Thoughts for March 18, 2017

1. The "Doctor" Sebastian Gorka: A couple of weeks ago I'd written up a thought about people who insist on using titles to make themselves appear important -- specifically Gorka's explicit use in his Twitter name -- but I deleted it. I wish I hadn't. [Here's the quick synopsis: As a newly naturalized American, Gorka chose to go back to his native Hungary to attend an unranked (world rankings) university to earn his doctoral degree. Why would you go back to Hungary with a thesis proposal arguing that the construct of western governments is inadequate to deal with the threats of, specifically, Islamic-based terrorism? Well, I can think of a few reasons, but the obvious one is intellectual disingenuity.] Today, I came across Daniel Nexon's write-up in Foreign Policy about how terrible Gorka's dissertation was. 🤦 D'oh!
2. USC's March Madness: I learned my lesson earlier this week when I walked away (to go to the store) from the USC-Providence game after USC fell into a double-digit hole at halftime. This time, I stayed for the entire USC-SMU game after USC fell into a double-digit hole. However, I must say that USC's win was improbable as they made all the classic errors at the end of the game and still managed to win. Truly, the embodiment of Madness of March Madness.
3. Jury Duty: Last week I was on jury duty and was selected for a criminal (misdemeanor charges) trial that lasted for a total of 6 hours including deliberations. I didn't volunteer for it, but I was nonetheless selected to be the jury foreperson. Self-aware that I have a silver tongue, while going over each of the four charges, I deliberately explained multiple times to the other jurors that I did not want them to feel badgered in any way and that it was completely their right to reject my explanations. Nonetheless, in one charge where the vote was 4 1/2 to 1 1/2 (the half was attributed to one juror who felt half-way between guilty and not-guilty) I was able to turn the 4 1/2 votes over to my side and it only took about 15 minutes to do so. This freaks me out quite a lot. From all the way back in high school I've known that I can easily influence people, which is why I've spent my whole life trying to avoid being at the front, for fear of pushing people in the wrong decision. On a one-to-one basis it's sometimes fun to manipulate people, but on a wider scale with huge implications, it's downright scary.
4. Windows Auto Restart: I am soooooooo done with Windows Auto Restart. Gdamn thing keeps rebooting itself even though I have programs open and working on them, I turned it off via group policy mod:
   
   1. Press Win+R
   2. Type gpedit.msc
   3. Go to Computer Configuration/Administrative Templates/Windows Components/Windows Update
   4. Double-click on No auto restart with logged on users for scheduled automatic updates installations
   5. Select Enabled and click OK
5. Local Weather: Last weekend I turned off my central air -- something I do in spring and fall -- and the inside temperature has been sitting comfortably between 69°F and 72°F / 20.5°C - 22.2°C with very little variation. Even though the rainy pattern hasn't stopped, someone pulled the big switch and walking outside in shorts became extremely comfortable while wearing jackets became uncomfortable.

5 (Political) Thoughts for March 16, 2017

1. Budget Item, NASA: Donald's budget cuts $200M from NASA's $19.1B budget, which is just 1% cut but it stands in contrast to the lies Donald has been offering up for several years. Here's just one:
   

   It is very sad to see what @BarackObama has done with NASA. He has gutted the program and made us dependent on the Russians.

   — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 27, 2012

   And just last year he said, "Over the last 8 years, the Obama-Clinton administration has undermined our space program tremendously. That will change. So many good things come out of it, including great jobs. That will change very quickly under a Trump administration and it'll change before it’s too late." After inserting that into the Trump Sentence Descrambling Machine, Donald asserted that he was going to create great jobs, but his budget will end up effectively cutting employment at NASA. Did I mention that his budget proposes to eliminate NASA's education program?
   
2. Budget Item, Meals on Wheels: When the OMB Director tells the nation that, "We can't spend it on programs that did not show results" you know that Republicans just don't get it. Meals on Wheels isn't a program to push elderly people out of poverty, after all. In the least cynical reading of the Trump Administration's budget priorities, it's "Every man for himself, except the rich who earned the government's help."
3. Budget Item, NEA, NEH: Donald's budget also eliminates the National Endowment for the Arts and the National Endowment for the Humanities. He seems to think that this hits liberals but it really doesn't; it hits the rural and the poor. Big cities -- typically dominated by liberals -- have the ability to make up funding through corporations, sponsors, local government, and of course nonprofits. Rural and small cities will have little choice but to close libraries and eliminate arts and music programs. Add into the fact that Ajit Pai -- a Republican -- is now head of the FCC and supports a state's right to block municipal fiber, rural communities will be decimated in an ever-growing divide between the haves and have-nots. Practically, Republicans are looking to entrench economic classes. Regardless, I point out the obvious: It'll never come to fruition as any funding bill is blocked without 60 votes in the Senate and House Republicans will be under fire from local government officials cognizant of the impact these cuts will create.
4. GOP Economics Made Real: You might think that Donald Trump is to blame for his ridiculously terrible budget proposal, and you would be wrong. In fact, it directly reflects the talking points of the GOP for decades. This time, however, the difference is that they have a lunatic in the White House who is willing to make concrete the very proposals the GOP have dangled as red meat to their constituents. Boost defense spending? Check. Eliminate / cut EPA, HUD, Arts, and Education? Check. Suddenly, Republicans are forced to govern responsibly but are instead finding out just how irresponsible their dogma is. Funny but also scary.
5. Muslim Ban: As predicted, The Emperor's Muslim Ban was blocked. This is literally what The Emperor is saying to the courts: I want a law that will violate the 1st Amendment, but crafted so that violating the 1st Amendment is legal. The question now is, does SCOTUS want to give POTUS the ability to "legally violate the US Constitution"? Remember, this is more than just about the "Muslim Ban" because allowing POTUS to work around the US Constitution means that he can also bring back segregation, gender and race discrimination, etc.

The CBO Report is an Elephant. (Updated)

Do you remember that old parable about the elephant and the blind men? That's what we have right now with the CBO report on the GOP Deathcare / Trumpcare.

We have Rep. Paul Ryan telling us that the CBO report "validates" his plan.

We also have HHS Tom Price saying that the CBO report is "not believable".

Of course, we have Sen. Bill Cassidy, after seeing the CBO report, saying, "Can’t sugarcoat it. Doesn’t look good".

So there you go. Three blind men with a big (red) elephant in the room.*







*- Pardon the mixed metaphors.

---

Update:

I guess we shouldn't find this shocking, but it turns out that the White House's internal review expected a higher number of uninsured (26M vs. CBO's 24M) by 2026. To recap, Donald expected worse numbers, then continued to attack the CBO despite the CBO's numbers being more conservative (re friendlier) than their own internals.

"WTF" should be your response.

Alternatively, "OMFG WTF" is also acceptable.

24,000,000

That's the increase in the number of Americans without insurance by 2026, as a result of the current GOP Deathcare plan, aka Trumpcare, according to the CBO.

Put aside your incredulity for a moment and understand that, (1) This is the CBO with a Republican House appointee -- Keith Hill -- at the helm, not some liberal Democratic appointee; (2) the final report is a reflection of a GOP-led Joint Committee on Taxation. In other words, people, Republicans are telling you that the GOP Deathcare / Trumpcare is going to expand the number of uninsured Americans beyond the number who'd signed up for coverage under the ACA.

Republicans -- being partisan -- will tout the estimated savings, roughly $337B over a decade, without telling you that what they're doing is killing Medicaid by slashing spending roughly 25% over the decade. By 2026, CBO estimates that the number of people covered by Medicaid will have decreased by 14M, but that does not mean that this number stops growing. As a matter of fact, because Republicans are using block grants and tying that to a formula of CPI + 1%, they've ensured that Medicaid funding will continue to shrink over time, forcing states to choose to spend more of their own money or slashing the number of people covered. In literal terms, they're saving Medicaid by destroying it.

You can also expect them to tout how Deathcare / Trumpcare is projected to lower average premiums by 2026 by 10% over current law, but they won't explain to you why over the next two years premiums will increase by 15~20% over current law. And if they're especially weasely, they'll lie and tell you that all of this means that you'll be paying 10% less in premiums by 2026 -- note that I've italicized "over current law" for a reason. But if they're plain devils, they won't even address the fact that people in their 50s and early 60s will be hit the hardest with upwards of 20% increases over current law.

"CBO and JCT expect that, over time, fewer employers would offer health insurance to their workers."

I call it Deathcare for a reason: The GOP's plan was always going to place "choice" over "personal expenditures"; anyone who thought otherwise was a fool who bought into superficial lies. The ACA was about expanding coverage and slowing price increases -- you can't accomplish both without a strong mandate requiring everyone to purchase insurance. The Tea Party movement was never about lowering prices for Americans. Without the mandate, some 7M fewer people will be insured through their workplace. Calling it Deathcare is spot on.

Finally, here's the big kicker: The CBO / JCT report is disinclined to believe that the GOP Deathcare / Trumpcare will result in the collapse of the individual market, but if they're wrong, then all bets are off as the number of uninsured will be vastly more than 24M and premiums for everyone will have to skyrocket.

Alien: Convenant -- The New Walter

I appreciate the build-up with all these videos dancing around the edges of the upcoming movie. You know who and what he is, after all, so there is no surprise in the narrative, but this video is really great. In the 38 years since the original Alien, technology has come a long way, hasn't it?

My Spotify "The Mostly 80s Ballads Mix"

Because 14+ hours of ballads and slow songs is what you need. Custom artwork, too. Link to playlist, here.

5 Thoughts for March 9, 2017

1. And Now, for Something Completely Different, Light Gauge Steel Construction: This one post will have zero mentions of a certain orange guy as I feel confident that there remains a very big shoe dropping soon. Rather than become overly obsessed with politics, I've actually been researching and reading on residential light-gauge steel construction. It is somewhat surprising that there are no libraries of details publicly available, and there is very limited free information of prescriptive methods (aside from the IRC which takes all their cues from the Low-Rise Residential Details manual from 2000). Fortunately, I've found the AISI's links to free versions of very expensive publications. Pay close attention to AISI S230-15 (Prescriptive Method for One and Two Family Dwellings) as it's a vast improvement over the old Low-Rise Residential Details manual. You're welcome.
2. Eddie Bauer: For some reason, they've decided that they're only giving members of their Adventure Club the extra discounts on their outlet deals. Apparently it wasn't enough that I was subscribing to their email list and received their catalogs in the mail, so, I dropped them. They don't get it. In 2011 their email vendor was hacked and EB's customer emails were stolen, then just last year they were hit by a POS skimmer breach. I don't trust you if you keep getting hacked, because it means you don't have strict protocols in place. Thus ends my relationship with Eddie Bauer. 
3. NFL Combine: Most people just pay attention to the results tracker, but when you watch the drills you can get a better sense of the quality of the athlete. For instance, Ardarius Stewart, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Ryan Switzer all looked like they were putting maximum effort into going after the ball and following through. By contrast, there were some other players (who shall go unnamed) who dropped balls and others who tried to walk through them. Davis Webb clearly has one of the strongest arms at the combine, but his accuracy is off the deeper he throws. Deshaun Watson made all of his throws. Adoree Jackson didn't put up blazing (re: John Ross 4.22) numbers in the 40-yard dash, but he ran through the gauntlet faster than anyone else and on cone drills never once looked down to the cones to check if he was in the right spot.
4. Nature Early yesterday morning my dog was using the toilet while two squirrels ran up the tree and peered down at us, while they did their business. Yes, I saw two squirrels have sex. Lasted all of about 15 seconds, but afterward, they were affectionately playing around with each other. Spring is in the air and the squirrels are excited to start a family. My dog is excited, too -- more squirrels to bark and chase after.
5. The Worst Driver: So, I parked my vehicle at the NW Glisan Trader Joe's today and while doing so there was this woman who was using her phone to take photos of her vehicle's bumper. I don't know if she thought that someone had hit her, but she was taking her sweet ol time even though the lot was, as one would expect, full. 15 minutes later I return to my vehicle and she's just now starting to pull out, but she's being extremely slow about it.  I didn't think she'd have trouble backing out in her white Audi A3 Sportback (lic plate "O WOOF"); I was wrong. Instead of turning her wheels while backing out, she backed out completely straight...right into a stingray metallic Scion xB. She didn't stop, instead, having to go back and forth twice to get her vehicle turned around to pull out of the lot. Damn. Tomorrow, she's probably going to get upset that someone left a stingray metallic imprint on her rear bumper, and look around to see if she can spot the offending vehicle.

That Sure Looks Like a Classic Correction

Everyone Opposes Trumpcare.

It's official: AARP (elderly), AMA (doctors), AHA (hospitals), and AHIP (insurers) all oppose Trumpcare;. The problem facing Republicans isn't something that can be solved in mark-up, either. There are three sides: (1) A group of moderate Republicans want to fix the ACA while (2) the Establishment Conservatives want to repeal and replace while (3) Freedom Caucus Republicans want to simply repeal and leave it at that.

Even the Establishment Conservatives pushing Trumpcare know that it's a terrible plan and that is why they're desperately trying to get it through committee and passed before the CBO can score it -- and that's even after the GOP House passed a rule in 2015 requiring CBO to use dynamic scoring! -- or at least preemptively attack the CBO in case their scoring does come back before the bill is voted on.

What is dynamic scoring? In short, macroeconomic feedback. More accurately, voodoo economics. They think that by giving rich people money it will trickle down to us poor folk, aka the lower 98%.

Without the CBO's portion of scoring, Congress' Joint Committee on Taxation has already stated that the repeal and replace plan would add $265B to the federal debt over the next 10 years. That is to say, that by cutting back the taxes imposed under the ACA, Trumpcare will end up adding to Trump's budget woes. When CBO's numbers come in, it's all but assured that Trumpcare will drop an extremely deep hole in the federal debt.

But it gets a lot worse.

Many, as do I, believe that there will be a pas de deux between people dropping out of rising prices and prices rising faster, culminating in the collapse of the individual market.

Trump and some Republicans foolishly think that the alternative to their crappy plan is to wait it out and let the ACA collapse on its own. That's not what's going to happen, and I can confidently say this because most of the insurers have pegged 2017 as the year they stabilize and earn a profit. That means that, having raised prices to compensate for the loss of money owed them under the law -- which Republicans refused to fund and constricted how HHS could move money around -- health insurers have reached a stable point where they no longer have to raise prices to meet their loss ratios.

Now, that doesn't mean that everything will go smoothly -- after all Trump is a total asshole who will do anything to fuck up something or someone he hates, even if it requires breaking the law -- but that Trump doesn't know WTF he's talking about. Cmon, this is a guy who only has the patience to read from bullet points.

---

Update: This chart illustrates the irony of Trumpcare. Notice how the worst-off are red states -- ones that voted for Trump.

CBPP: https://goo.gl/1AngLD

Two Things You Might Not Learn (Unitl it's Too Late) About the GOP Deathcare Plan (Updated)

There is more than sufficient ink being spilled in reviewing the larger changes that the GOP Deathcare plan creates. Yes, your costs will go up, significantly more than if Congress did nothing -- there are just no two ways about it, and Medicaid will be massively slashed. I'm not here to rehash that ink; I'm here to highlight two very important points that are buried in insanely complex legalese and might be ignored by the news media and others.

Point 1: Republicans intend to punish Medicaid expansion states

"Exemption from exemption for non-expansion states" -- that's the ridiculously complex title of a section that the GOP bill introduces into the SSA laws. Its purpose, obfuscated: Republicans want to stick it to those states who expanded Medicaid under the ACA by allowing what are called Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) cuts to proceed while eliminating them from states that did not expand Medicaid.

DSH payments are federal dollars distributed to hospitals that treat a disproportionate number of uninsured / poor, offsetting underpayments from these two groups. The theory was, that because the ACA increased the insured by expanding Medicaid coverage, those states with expanded Medicaid wouldn't need as much DSH payments. This wasn't exactly how it worked out, as Medicaid does not pay out 100% (closer to 92%) which meant that some states had a shortfall. These cuts were put off, each year, until 2018, and they were supposed to last through 2025. Under the GOP plan, Medicaid expansion states would see those cuts through 2025 while the non-expansion states would see those cuts end in 2019.

I'm fairly certain that this will end up in a federal lawsuit if the bill ever became law, owing to the Equal Protection Clause that would normally prevent separate treatment of states based on their class status, without any ability to opt out. Consider it the parallel to the successful lawsuit of non-expansion states to avoid penalties for not expanding Medicaid under the ACA.

Point 2: Republicans are effectively keeping the Mandate

The intent of the ACA's individual mandate was to force people to obtain coverage if they could afford it. The GOP Deathcare Plan ends up penalizing anyone who drops their coverage only to gain access once again, and the penalties are at least twice as much as the ACA's.

Essentially, the GOP will force insurers to charge you a 30% penalty for those months in the current plan year that you didn't have coverage. The current law allows for a maximum of $695 for an individual, based on a full year of non-coverage, but with exceptions for poor people.

For example, take the case of Larry who signs up for coverage but missed one month during the plan year, and his plan costs $350 a month:

• Under the GOP Deathcare proposal, Larry would pay a penalty of $350 * 1 month * 30% = $105.
• Under the current rules, Larry would pay a penalty of 1 month / 12 months * $695 = $57.92. Note, however, that under the current rules you don't pay any penalty so long as you held insurance for 10 out of the 12 months in a year, thus, your penalty is $0.

Now, let's say that Larry missed 11 months and signed up for coverage on the last month during the plan year:

• Under the GOP Deathcare proposal, Larry would pay a penalty of $350 * 11 months * 30% = $1155.
• Under the current rules, Larry would pay a penalty of 11 months / 12 months * $695 = $637.09.

Let's just say that the GOP Deathcare Plan is bad. It's so bad, one preliminary cost review suggests that it will add $600B to the federal debt over the decade. So yeah, it'll kill Americans physically and financially and the GOP aren't all that concerned about this reality.

---

Update: It appears that Point 2 has gained the attention of others, but the interpretation is that the penalty extends forward for 12 months. If this is the case -- the language does not indicate how this mandate will work, given that at the end of the regular enrollment year one can simply switch insurers or cut and run -- then it's a lot worse of a penalty than the ACA's mandate and will inundate insurers with much more paperwork and time. This may be the intention, but here's my reading (underlined sections) of the pertinent portion:

"(1) IN GENERAL.—Notwithstanding section 2701, subject to the succeeding provisions of this section, a health insurance issuer offering health insurance coverage in the individual or small group market shall, in the case of an individual who is an applicable policyholder of such coverage with respect to an enforcement period applicable to enrollments for a plan year beginning with plan year 2019 (or, in the case of enrollments during a special enrollment period, beginning with plan year 2018), increase the monthly premium rate otherwise applicable to such individual for such coverage during each month of such period, by an amount determined under paragraph (2).‘‘(2) AMOUNT OF PENALTY.—The amount determined under this paragraph for an applicable policyholder enrolling in health insurance coverage described in paragraph (1) for a plan year, with respect to each month during the enforcement period applicable to enrollments for such plan year, is the amount that is equal to 30 percent of the monthly premium rate otherwise applicable to such applicable policyholder for such coverage during such month."

Now, like I said, since plans are 12-months long, and since the bill mandates that the insurer implements the penalty, the popular interpretation makes much less sense because one could then cut and run at the end of every plan year, thus avoiding the full year of penalties to avoid the new year of penalties. Whichever interpretation is correct, the plan is still terrible and still highlights that the GOP are maintaining a costly mandate.

Dear Jeff Sessions

STOP LYING

Your refutation this afternoon was purely categorical and narrowly crafted to misdirect; it is a white lie when you answer a question that was not asked. You cannot change the facts of the matter. This is exactly what happened:

Sen. Franken: "If there is any evidence that anyone affiliated with the Trump campaign communicated with the Russian government in the course of this campaign, what will you do?" 

You: "I’m not aware of any of those activities. I have been called a surrogate at a time or two in that campaign and I did not have communications with the Russians."

Your post-rationalized excuse shows that you adjudicated which facts you wanted to show Congress. You lied by omission, and that is perjury.

RESIGN

Jeff Sessions Lied to Congress

Tonight, WaPo revealed that during his confirmation hearings, Jeff Sessions lied.

"Then-Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) spoke twice last year with Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Justice Department officials said, encounters he did not disclose when asked about possible contacts between members of President Trump’s campaign and representatives of Moscow during Sessions’s confirmation hearing to become attorney general."

Back during the Judiciary Committee's hearings on Jeff Sessions' appointment, Senator Al Franken asked him, "If there is any evidence that anyone affiliated with the Trump campaign communicated with the Russian government in the course of this campaign, what will you do?"

Jeff Sessions, in an attempt to evade the question, walked around it, saying, "I’m not aware of any of those activities. I have been called a surrogate at a time or two in that campaign and I did not have communications with the Russians."

Jump to 3:18 in the video below.

That's clearly a lie by omission. He volunteered information that was uncategorical -- I did not have communications with the Russians -- only to have to later qualify that statement by stating those conversations were unrelated to the campaign. By later qualifying his omission, Sessions makes clear that he adjudicated the value of his omission, rather than defer that process to Congress.

And this isn't the first time he's done this during the confirmation process. OGE revealed that he omitted his ownership rights to oil on 600+ acres of land in Alabama -- something that was required by federal law.

The highest prosecutor in the US lied, twice, in just one month. By definition, he is unfit to serve in the Department of Justice, as we cannot trust him to reveal all the facts for any given case. His selective facts present a problem for the courts and for the American people, particularly for defendants.

He either needs to resign or he needs to be impeached. Unfortunately for Americans, most Republicans in Congress do not take their role seriously, instead, placing politics ahead of the country.

And note, while Bush's own ethics lawyer suggests that Sessions may have paved his own road to jail, this isn't about punishment; it's about removing someone who cannot be trusted. It's why Congress did not confirm him as a federal judge back in 1986.

5 Thoughts for March 1, 2017

1. Big: I'm of average-ish height, but my chest (42"), feet (11"), hands (9 1/4"), and calves say otherwise. I bring this up because I injured my calf -- I think it's a grade-2 tear/stretch -- and had to measure it in order to find an appropriately sized calf compression sleeve on Amazon. 16 1/2" -- that's pretty big, considering that I'm not 6' tall. So why did I tear my calf? Because I was trying out the 5BX -- I was flying through chart 1 at double the A+ level, right up until the running-in-place. But hey, if you're over 6' tall and have smaller calves, hands, chest, and feet, do not fret as most people are probably in the same boat as you, Donald.
2. Donald's SOTU: Ratings are in, and apparently there were quite a few people who agreed with my choice as fewer people (43.3M) watched his SOTU compared to Obama's 2009 (52.4M). But put into perspective, and Donald's SOTU is actually even smaller. In February 2009, the US population was 305.7M and now it's 324.6M. That means 17.1% of all Americans watched Obama's first SOTU while just 13.3% watched Donald's. Always second-best.
3. GOP's Alternative to Obamacare: The GOP's alternative to Obamacare royally screws the poor and older middle-income Americans. Because the GOP plan isn't tied to real prices, over time, all middle-income Americans will fall behind. Thus, it seems to me that the GOP tactic going forward will likely rely on starving the ACA of funds (just as they did with the risk corridor program, resulting in dozens of insurers forced out of the marketplaces) to make their proposal appear as the better (if false) choice.
4. Bluebeam: Forgive me if I do not hold back, but it's shit. I understand why people want to use Revu for markups, and certainly what that highlights is the fact that Adobe's Acrobat is not up to snuff with what it should be capable of doing. Vu is nothing more than their version of Adobe Digital Editions and Studio is nothing more than cloud storage. If I were running a studio, I would not be using Bluebeam.
5. PBS NewsHour: WATCH tonight's episode for one reason, the Gorka interview. Holy shit, not only is he creepy but he's highly confrontational, talks down, and thinks that he's alpha*. Judy Woodruff continues to show that she can't handle someone like Gorka. * -- You can always discern a 'pretend alpha' by his chest sticking out, among some other physical cues.