Friday, February 10, 2017

In One Month: Debt Ceiling

On March 15, 2017, the federal debt ceiling suspension will formally end, at which point the debt ceiling will be adjusted to the current total debt level. Normally, the media and Congress would be keenly focused on this. This is not a normal year and this is not a normal country we live in.

What do you suppose will happen -- will the Republican Congress and White House change their minds about their dogmatic desire to balance the budget, or will they ignore it and try to quietly resume the debt ceiling suspension? I expect the latter and I think they'll suspend the debt ceiling for exactly two years, pushing the onus of the debt ceiling onto the next Congress.

Or, the crazies in Congress could always demand a Balanced Budget Amendment (as they once used to do at the start of every session) and shut down the government. The thing is, Republicans control the entire government so they own everything that happens under their watch, but there are many Republicans who actually believe in a balanced budget and will not budge this time around.

Speaking of debt, in the most recent Treasury report (Jan 18, 2017), China (official and unofficial) held 5.3% of all federal debt, having sold off $215B of their holdings over the past year (Nov 2015 to Nov 2016) which is roughly equal to 17% of their holdings. No one noticed and no one panicked.


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