6 Thoughts for February 11, 2017

1. Avoiding Sunshine Laws: It appears that The Emperor's team won't have any records to make available for Archives, as they've taken to using a messaging app that doesn't leave a trail or history. That's technically illegal -- intentionally avoiding a trail -- but I'm guessing that at this point in time, many, many politicians have figured this out and their younger staff have already moved over to these types of apps. Some people will say that this is no different than Hillary's intentions, but that's categorically false: Her intention was never to stop a trail but to limit immediate access to it, in which case, so long as she handed over her emails/work product she was fine, even if she missed some by accident. Intent matters, and in the case of The Emperor's team, their intent is to avoid anyone knowing what they're doing, wiping the history record of their actions.
2. Defamation: The Emperor (and his staff) should know better than anyone else, that whenever he calls someone a liar, especially a journalist, he can be sued for defamation. It's a three-part test: (1) provably false statement offered; (2) statement caused harm; (3) was done with malice. It's fairly easy to show malice by simply using The Emperor's own tweets and public statements, but imagine the stuff you'd find during discovery. As the cost of a lawsuit is the greatest obstacle, we need to establish a trust fund to pay for such lawsuits -- against any politician -- who would knowingly disparage journalism for self-gain.
3. Mike Flynn + Trump + Putin: The truth is out. We now know for certain that Flynn had talked to Russia ahead of the inauguration about the hacking sanctions. Back on January 13, reports of the phone calls came out in the press. For reasons related to cognitive bias, the Bernie or Bust supporters refuse to believe that Russia and The Emperor's campaign coordinated to hijack the US election. We also know, for certain, that he'd talked to Russia before the election, and that UNINT has corroborated phone calls highlighted in "the dossier". I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
4. The Truth About Intel's $7B Investment: The valuation is mostly an illusion meant to get people excited about big numbers. The fab building was already constructed, but even if they were starting from scratch, the cost of the land, building, permits, drawings, and engineering are a tiny fraction (in the neighborhood of 1~5%). The largest chunk of the cost to being a fab online is the equipment. If Intel were forced to restate their job creation in terms of Full-Time Equivalent Years, it would be exceedingly tiny in scale to that $7B investment, and not the 3,000 jobs cited. Furthermore, the number they present is offset by large tax credits given by states to tech manufacturing companies, making that $7B a lot less valuable to a state. Finally, if you don't believe me: last April Intel announced layoffs in Chandler that would bring its workforce down to under 11,000, but in this current announcement, they said that Fab 42 would result in more than 10,000 long-term jobs in Arizona. Head fake, bruh.
   
5. The Emperor Claims Media Abused Ivanka: Pretty rich, don't you think, that the guy who bragged about grabbing pussy and kissing women at without their permission, claims that the media has abused Ivanka. The irony -- that The Emperor's actions have harmed his daughter -- clearly flew over The Emperor's sparse head.
6. Paper Tiger: I previously noted that the markets have taken to mocking The Emperor's attacks by boosting the companies he criticizes, and it has clearly annoyed The Emperor (as noted by his claims of abuse of Ivanka). But the other day he conceded the primacy of the One China policy -- something he'd previously challenged publicly. That followed a concession earlier this week that Israel's expanded settlements were working against peace between the Palestinians and Israelis -- something he'd previously ignored. Today, despite assurances that North Korea wouldn't test-fire a ballistic missile, NK test-fired a ballistic missile. I previously outlined how this is the second stage of a major military confrontation (the first was The Emperor's belligerent threats) and now The Emperor is at a crossroads between sanity (being a paper tiger) and insanity (escalating to bolster his ego) -- the good news (sort of) is that he is increasingly looking like the bad negotiator we thought he was and not the lunatic who would literally go ballistic.