Happy Holidays

What the Flynn Plea Deal Really Tells Us (Updated)

I don't have the time to go into it right now, so here's the quick and dirty:

Today's plea deal between Robert Mueller's prosecutors and Mike Flynn points to the fact that, at the time Sally Yates had warned Donald and his campaign transition team about Flynn lying about his contacts with Russian officials, Donald's team already knew about it because they authorized it.

That means that Mike Pence, Donald, Steve Bannon, Jared Kushner, and many other folks in the transition team lied to the public on multiple occasions.

When they impeach, they damn well better impeach Mike Pence, too.

---

Update: 

If you watched The Rachel Maddow Show on Friday night, this is roughly the central story she pursued.

On a slightly different track, for whatever reason, the media has seemingly forgotten that Steve Bannon was a central character in the final stage of the campaign, its transition, and for most of the administration's time in office. He doesn't appear to have been asked to speak to the FBI. This is something we should be keeping an eye out for.

The GOP Process, Explained in 7 Steps

1. Write bill behind closed doors.
2. Limit changes.
3. Cut off debate.
4. Eliminate hearings.
5. Attempt to pass on party-line vote via reconciliation.
6. Fail.
7. Blame Democrats.

5 Thoughts on USC Beating UCLA

1. Slop: Two teams combined to commit 23 penalties for 215 yards, 3 turnovers, and just looked bad at times. Josh Rosen had receivers dropping balls left and right while the Trojans frequently got caught out of position and not knowing what the call was on defense. The highlight of the defensive woes came when Rosen floated a pass to a receiver who slipped past three Trojans defenders in the end zone; they just stood there in a reenactment of the Three Stooges. On several 3rd-and-long plays, the Trojans completely lost receivers and the Bruins converted easily. Then there was Darnold with time running out at the half, scrambling on a run, choosing to go for the first down instead of running out of bounds to stop the clock, only to get tackled one yard shy and time expiring. We know the Bruins were bad but we didn't know just how mentally out of the game the Trojans would be.
2. Regular Season End: It's somewhat fitting that USC would win in sloppy fashion to close out the regular season. When they set their minds to it they're too good for most teams to keep up with. When they're bored or distracted, they look exceedingly terrible. On a weekend when the top-10 was taking other teams to the woodshed, USC woke up late, took an early lunch, then nearly forgot to finish the job before the end of the day. If you bet against the spread with the Trojans, you'd be rich after this season -- Saturday night was no different. I don't particularly buy the excuse of not having a bye week, but now that they have a bye week, they should be playing lights out at the PAC-12 Championship, right? Also, it was Jim Mora's regular season-ending game, too, as he was fired as UCLA's head coach.
3. Nonetheless, 10-2: Despite all of the complaints, they finished the regular season at 10-2 and that counts for something. In two seasons, the Trojans under Helton are 20-5 and no previous coach has done this since Pete Carroll's last two combined seasons, 2008-2009. So let's say that these coaches are learning on the job -- something most of us believe to be true -- then, doesn't this mean that Helton's got a very bright future ahead of him and the Trojans? I think so. In other words, as the coaches figure things out, the team seems likely to take the next step up into the echelons of powerhouse programs. I can state, without a doubt, that USC's got the best running backs coach in the nation and their backs have made huge strides over last year.
4. Signs of a Bright Future: You can already see just how bright USC's future is. What took years for Porter Gustin to figure out -- maintaining discipline on the edge -- has taken Jordan Iosefa just a handful of games. He played lights out against UCLA, stopping the reverse and backside cut. Tyler Vaughns catches everything thrown his way while Michael Pittman is too strong for most defensive backs to handle him. Vavae Malepeai is a bull while Stephen Carr is an explosive running back in the mold of a Charles White. Now, if only they'd cut out the mental errors and gain some consistency, they could take the next step into becoming a powerhouse.
5. Best in PAC-12?: Obviously, the answer to that question comes after the PAC-12 championship game in two weeks. And you know that most people have USC as the best in the league. At this point in time, however, and until they lose, Washington State remains the best team in PAC-12, not USC. Both USC and WSU beat Stanford -- which makes Stanford #3 in my mind -- but WSU beat USC. Head-to-head matchups matter a lot, so it's difficult to place USC ahead of WSU. And if you could come up with a script for a redeeming season end for USC, it would be WSU winning the Apple Cup and USC crushing WSU in a rematch at the championship game. That's why WSU should be tops in the PAC-12.

5 Thoughts on Pokemon Go, November 2017

1. One-Year Anniversary: Exactly one year ago yesterday, I began my Pokemon Go journey. I started months after the game was released so I missed out on several mons that were apparently more common in the beginning than they are now. Nonetheless, with my weirdly neurotic persistence, I've managed to climb to level 36 in that period. I've gained 7,733,316 XP during that time, which is equal to 21,187 XP a day, every day. In the beginning, I started out averaging roughly 8,000 XP a day, so obviously I've ramped up significantly since then.
2. Golden Razz Berries: They don't make sense. With other berries, feeding your mon in a gym when you're at the gym is more effective than when you're accessing it from afar. Golden Razz Berries, however, can be used to fully replenish a mon in a gym if you're halfway around the world. In turn, people have been using them to hold onto gyms for a very long time even when they're nowhere near the gym. That's antithetical to how the other berries work and the intentions of the game to get people out and about, socializing. If you're not physically at a gym, you shouldn't be able to fully replenish a mon; you should only be able to replenish it by 1/3rd. You know that Niantic realized this was becoming a problem because they suddenly changed the gym raid rewards to cut back on Golden Razz Berries.
3. Passive-Aggressive, Antisocial Game: While Niantic designed the game to boost social interaction, the weird thing is, my experience so far has been mostly the opposite. I've deliberately taken photos of people who have stopped in front of me at multiple gyms to prevent me from taking down a gym or to take down my mon in a gym, but fail to acknowledge my presence in the middle of the sidewalk. It's always the case that I'm the one initiating contact. Even raids are weird. Mostly strangers gather at spots, barely speak to each other, and once the raid is done, scatter to the winds. I don't know a single person's real name, just their face and their ID. Weird.
4. How to Get Ahead Without Really Trying: So you want to get ahead without really trying? Spend lots of money in the game and buy a PokemonGo Plus device. With the Plus wearable, it'll automatically spin Pokestops and catch mons. Again, see above, passive-aggressive, antisocial people. If you want to catch the rare mons, use a tracker to find them. If you want to collect tons of XP, use a GPS spoofer to play in thousands of gyms around the world. That's not me, however. I enjoy the struggle, the work, the effort, the process of getting to the top. All the fun of the game is removed if everything passively happens while you're not paying attention.
5. Three Rules: I have three rules, in general, but specifically for this game.
1. No cheating. I will not utilize rare mon trackers or GPS spoofing.
2. No money. I will absolutely not spend a dime in a game, no matter what. Most games have a half-life of a few months; better games have a half-life of a year or maybe more. I'm not that kind of consumer, though.
3. Exploit efficiencies. Other than FPS games, you mostly are battling to find the efficiencies of a game that enable you to maximize your potential. For instance, everyone who has played Pac Man knew about the specific patterns you'd use to navigate at each level. This is how you become an expert in video games. As a general rule, I'm always searching for those exploitable efficiencies so I'm always examining how I execute my strategy and specific tactics.

Back.

Following the passing of my dog, I sort of took some time away from writing and reading, and just took in some living and introspection. I'm back.

The Election Wave Has Started

The first wave already came ashore earlier this year, but mostly went unheralded because they were seen as isolated election results while the media cast losses by Jon Ossoff and others as a sign that there was no wave election coming. They misinterpreted what happened. Those losses were unimaginably narrower than Republicans expected in the reddest districts of the reddest of states, leading to many Republicans in swing-districts and swing-states to announce their retirement.

In reality, these were the red blue flags pointing to a wave election. Tonight, a bigger wave just arrived.

• Maine overwhelmingly voted, 59% - 41% to expand Medicaid against (R) Governor Paul LePage's refusal to expand under the ACA.
• Ralph Northam defeated Ed Gillespie in Virginia's race for governor by the widest margin (+9pp) for a Democrat in 32 years, outperforming all polls except Quinnipiac.
• Phil Murphy defeated Kim Guadagno in New Jersey's race for governor (+14pp), to replace the extremely unpopular Chris Christie, turning NJ blue once again.
• The Virginia House of Delegates marked a huge shift towards Democrats, previously held by Republicans with a 66-34 advantage, to currently 49-47 Democratic advantage, with four races still too close to call. One of these flips came from a transgender woman -- Danica Roem -- beating a man who'd sponsored a bathroom bill and described himself as Virginia's "chief homophobe."
• The State of Washington's Senate flipped to Democratic control, giving Democrats full control of the House, Senate and Governor's office.

Yet, Donald's troubles will only get worse with each passing day.

His poll numbers keep sagging, the Russia-Trump investigations keep growing, and elected Republicans continue to obfuscate their true feelings about Donald. The longer this drama goes on, especially in light of growing indictments involving more members of Donald's campaign team, the higher the next waves grow.

Do you believe, now?

Margrethe Vestager Misleads on Competition

The EU's head of their Competition Commission, Margrethe Vestager recently asked the crowd at Web Summit, "How many of you would like to find your companies on page four of search results?" People should understand that a company's placement on the fourth page is about SEO, not about a failure to pay Google, highlighting Vestager's willful ignorance or highly deceptive actions. But the greater issue here is that she used this misleading allegory to defend her actions against Google:

"We have no objection to Google dominating the market with its search engine. We just don't want it to use that dominance to squeeze out competition."

This is completely untrue, and I have covered this before. Vestager, in fact, has previously identified actions that are used by other search engines and other tech companies, then singled out Google's use of these actions as anti-competitive. Back in 2015, Vestager was interviewed by the late Gwen Ifill about the EU's position against Google:

Gwen Ifill:

"Do other tech companies like Amazon not do that?"

Margrethe Vestager:

"Well, they do not hold a 90 percent dominance in the general search market, as we see it in the European markets, and that’s a very important difference."

Credit Ifill for dragging the truth out of Vestager back in 2015, because Vestager has never repeated these words, since.

EU's understanding of competition is not the same as America's. EU's interpretation of competition originates from Ordoliberalism where the presence of a market-dominant company inherently indicates a failure of competition. In America, generally, anti-competition seeks to find harm and to alleviate the damage caused by that harm. Under a Robert Bork (Borkian?) evolution of the American view, only harm to consumers should be acted upon. In general, Economics recognizes natural monopolies and that they are sometimes beneficial to consumers; such a thing is an oxymoron under an Ordoliberal view.

I don't particularly mind if other people have different views on competition -- I think we should be able to openly discuss the differences and agree to disagree if we cannot come to a shared view. But what Vestager (and by extension the EU) is doing here, is misleading the average person.

Her continued failure to closely regulate EU's market-dominant companies while singling out American ones indicates the true nature of her actions: Protectionism.

Seema Verma Espouses Compassionate Conservatism

This is a quote from CMS administrator Seema Verma:

"Every American deserves the dignity and respect of high expectations and as public officials we should deliver programs that instill hope and say to each beneficiary that we believe in their potential."

What. The. Hell. This is Medicaid she's talking about, but she's pretending as though the working poor and their children -- the primary recipients of Medicaid -- should be working harder to earn their health insurance.

She should be forced to work for minimum wage without healthcare coverage -- let's see how she takes it when someone insults her dignity by declaring that she's a lazy bum who doesn't deserve insurance.

You know, anyone who criticizes the working poor for not working hard enough to earn a decent living should be forced to work for minimum wage.

Carter Page is Not Very Smart

This is an excerpt from Carter Page's letter to James Comey at the FBI, in September 2016:

"As you may be aware, the source of these accusations is nothing more than completely false media reports. Yet for the record, I have not met this year with any sanctioned individual in Russia or any other country despite the fact that there are no restrictions on U.S. persons speaking with such individuals."

Ugh. This paragraph is a complete mess, so let's break it down.

"As you may be aware..."

If Comey had been aware that the public accusations against Page were completely false, why would Page have to write him a letter? This is a weak attempt to persuade law enforcement through rhetoric, at best.

"...the source of these accusations is nothing more than completely false media reports."

No proof offered, just a statement urging the FBI to trust Page's word. The worst part for Page is that he's establishing a record of this current version of his truth, to be used later against future testimony to either Congress or the FBI or Mueller's team -- all under oath. The year that has followed has played out this way.

"I have not met this year..."

This is quite the qualifier. The presumption we're now led to believe is that he's met with interesting people before 2016.

"...with any sanctioned individual in Russia or any other country..."

This is another remarkable qualifier. Most spies and most of the FSB aren't sanctioned individuals. By raising this qualifier, it makes Page look rather ignorant and points to Page hinting that he'd met with many Russians while in Russia and other countries, related to campaign activities.

"despite the fact that there are no restrictions on U.S. persons speaking with such individuals."

He first established his point that he hadn't met with any "sanctioned" individuals, only to point out that meeting with such sanctioned individuals is not illegal. So, why are you telling us what we already know -- are there meetings with people you'd rather not discuss?

I almost feel sorry for him. On his own volition, he wrote a letter that produced a dozen red flags and a trail of his lies. In the year that followed, Page kept rushing in front of the cameras, each time producing a different version of his truth. Carter Page is not very smart; if he's convicted, he only has himself to blame.

Mr. Happy.

An Amazing Friend

Love You, Pal

When Kirby was 5, I made this video compilation of some of his photos. I was so proud of how wonderful of a job he did growing up, I wanted to let everyone else know how amazing of a dog he was, despite his very rough early life.

Rest My Friend

Though there's a hole in my heart

I'll always cherish us

and am eternally grateful

that we shared so much together.

Rest, my friend.

(Now go fetch my dad and Rusty!)

Life and Death

Life brings the inevitability of death.

In youth, we perceive death in an entirely different way than we do as an adult, and then as a senior.

In our younger age, death is an unfair, sad reality. Those we love shouldn't have to die, ever.

As an adult, we see and understand the inevitability of death. It can sometimes scare us, even. For others, death appears to be an absence of pain and suffering, leading some to end their lives prematurely. For others, it strengthens their resolve to live as well and as long as they can and enjoy the ride. We also grow more philosophical about dying, don't we?

As a senior (ascertained through my many conversations with retired, older folks) we look back on our lives and find it remarkable that, through all of our mistakes and terrible judgment, we somehow managed to live a long life. The inevitability is much closer, and though we fear it, we also accept the reality we face, understanding that life is that circle. We still fear the idea of the moment of death, but we can't prevent it.

Everyone wants to believe there is more after we die, even if we may not believe there is something else that follows. And it doesn't hurt to be a good person, just in case there is something that follows.

But, it is not our death that is tragic; whether or not there is something that follows, our time here in this life has ended and we aren't around to contemplate our own death. Rather, it is when our loved ones die, that we are, ourselves, grief-stricken from their absence and our choices relative to their livelihood.

This grief is doubled when we are responsible for making choices relative to our loved one's death. Should we have put our dog to sleep or should we have let him/her live out the rest of his/her life to die naturally? Should we have placed mom/dad into hospice or should we have spent the extra money and burdens to have in-home hospice?

If I were to die, I would not want those who loved me to suffer the grief of my death, whether choices they made or by the emptiness of my absence. Likewise, I would rather carry the burden of all my loved ones dying before me, that I may die without others being burdened from my absence.

I write this because my dog is nearing 15 years of age and is getting ready to die, and I want to cherish his existence as long as he can live. I know that I'll still be sad by his absence, but more than that, I will forever be grateful for his presence in my life.

Enjoy life and living, and cherish the experiences we had with those who've passed.

5 Thoughts on USC's Win at ASU

1. You're Kidding Me, Right?: In the 24 hours following the game, hundreds of thousands of Trojans fans were yelling at the screen, "YOU'RE KIDDING ME, RIGHT? WHERE WAS ALL THIS GOOD STUFF EARLIER THIS YEAR???" I slightly exaggerate, but that's the essence of the Trojan fan mindset right now. Had they brought that excitement and push, they may not have lost two games this season at this point.
2. That Overturned Call: The PAC-12 replay crew got it wrong. They're only allowed to overturn a ruling based on clear video evidence, but the video showed the opposite. The ASU receiver pulling back the ball to try to bring it over the goal line, but when the ball hits the ground the ball lands a foot outside the goal line. The video evidence was contrary to what the replay officials apparently assumed. That's a huge stain on the PAC-12 for getting the reversal wrong. It was somewhat inconsequential, but it was a ridiculous circus of errors.
3. But Was it a Turnaround?: Let's be frank here, this may not be the turnaround flip we've been led to believe. Yes, they blew out ASU, but upon closer inspection, things were a little different than the score shows. The first USC TD came on a poor positioning by ASU safety Dasmond Tautalatasi. The second TD came during Tautalatasi's run blitz with the cornerback in man defense missing a tackle on Tyler Vaughns. On USC's third TD, Tautalatasi read the run but missed the tackle that would have held Jones to a 4-yard gain. On their fourth TD, Tautalatasi wasn't responsible for the reception but his illegal targeting hit was critical going forward. With his ejection, the safeties were playing slightly deeper (instead of 8-10 yards off the line they were 11-13 yards back), which then resulted in a change of plays to go with more runs and shorter passes. The good news is, they didn't slow down and the defense didn't let up, however, which was something of a problem in previous games.
4. No, it Wasn't Balanced: The final stats show 35 pass / 46 rush attempts, but that's not how the game started. Through the first four series, USC attempted 14 passes and 5 runs. They were deliberately using the pass to set up the running game. Because ASU gambled a lot on single-high safety to bring another defender in closer for run defense, when the Sun Devils missed a tackle or got blocked out, they gave Ronald Jones a wide-open field to make a series of long runs. Other times, they'd play shallow cover-2 but it ended up burning them when they got stuck behind the receiver. Helton's been calling it a balanced game since Saturday, but it really wasn't. It was a brilliant game plan to set up the run by getting the ball to their playmaking wide receivers in 1-on-1 coverage. Give credit where it's due, Tee Martin came up with a great plan and the players executed it exceptionally well.
5. Next Up, Arizona: This could be a difficult game, not necessarily because of Khalil Tate, but because Porter Gustin will not be playing in this game. Over the years Gustin's endured through his mistakes of getting caught out of position on the edge, losing containment. Each year, he's gotten better at maintaining the edge while getting in on the tackle. This season, he was golden, that is, until he got his toe injury and his pectoral tear. He missed five games and finally returned to play quite a bit against ASU, but his toe apparently will prevent him from playing against the Wildcats. Edge contain is critical against Tate (and generally against the Wildcats) and without Gustin, I'm a bit concerned that Arizona will be able to run at will against USC, which then sets up their passing game. If they mostly contain the edge, they should do fine on defense and blow out UA. As well as the Wildcats defense did against WSU, it came against the backup quarterback, not Luke Falk, which bodes well for Sam Darnold and USC's passing game.

5 Thoughts for October 31, 2017

1. Halloween: This will sound absolutely anti-Halloween, but one of the benefits of living in a secured, multistory housing structure is that you don't get trick-or-treaters. No money required to spend on candy. It's been this way for me for as long as I can remember. If I had a house, however, I might be tempted to deck it out in scary paraphernalia and reward those brave souls who made it through the Path of Horrors. All I need are a bunch of programmed Raspberry Pi devices to create a series of randomly unexpected events along this Path of Horrors.
2. John Kelly: His notional understanding of many things is astoundingly simplistic and superficial. In two weeks, he's gone from a man who brought order to the White House to a man who might best be described as what a restrained Donald Trump would look like (if such a thing existed) -- which is to say that the only thing that separates Donald from Kelly is restraint. A White man always has the opportunity to take the preposterous position that the Civil War occurred because of a lack of willingness to compromise -- it's not his existential conflict. Besides, how can he not get that the foundation of this country was, itself, a war for freedom -- is there a compromise in freedoms that would, should, or could have led us to not declaring our independence from Britain? Finally, perhaps no one's realized this yet, but Kelly just denounced Donald's penchant for red lines, especially the one he's drawn with North Korea and nuclear weapons. A thoughtful and well-considered person understands the implications of every position, not just his/her own. Kelly's more of an automaton.
3. About the Manhattan Truck Attack: Let it be known, today's attack was delivered via a foreign national who came from what is colloquially called the -Stans, otherwise known as Central Asia. We've seen this before, too. The Boston bombers came from this region. Guess who exerts the greatest influence over this region. Have you figured it out yet? Russia. This is where the alternative Cold War is being played out, between the US attempting to stem the flow of terrorism into these countries countered by Russia's fear of being surrounded by US-aligned nations. Donald has no share in the blame, mind you, but this attack highlights why he foreign policy is short-sighted and missing the targets. In his updated ban, Donald had lots of time to have his foreign policy and national security teams go over and create a new list. In the new list -- Chad, Iran, Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Somalia, and North Korea -- there isn't a single Central Asian country or region listed. Thus, any attempts to use this attack as an argument in support of a foreign visa ban is, in fact, incorrect and deluded.
4. Pokemon Go - Chansey: You can't pop more than one of any species of a Pokemon into a gym, so people pop in the highest-rated defensive mons into the gym to make it difficult to take over. What many people are beginning to understand, however, is that those massive CP Blisseys lose motivation fairly quickly, eventually making them very easy to defeat after four hours or so. Even weaker players can beat a Blissey on their own, after 8 hours. That's where Chansey comes into play. Chansey's a beast in the current system. If you power her up to her max -- 1469 -- then, even after 8 hours she'll be over 1000 CP. By comparison, a 3000 CP Blissey will have lower CP at the end of 8 hours. That's why I'm working to max out my Chansey's CP and why I won't be evolving my Chansey into a Blissey. Also, I'm 2/3rds of the way through level 35 and I still haven't spent any money.
5. Stranger Things 2: This is literally, my coming of age story. Except, the show gets all of the tiny details wrong. It's 1984 and, sure, you might hear some Devo, but we were already past that point and into Duran Duran's Seven and the Ragged Tiger album with Union of the Snake, The Reflex, and New Moon on Monday, and oh by the way, Prince's Purple Rain was at the top of the charts. This was a time when there were basically six genres on the radio: Classic Rock, Top-40, Classical, Talk, Oldies, Easy Listening (like Muzak's elevator music). And sure, there was something like an AV club, but by 1984 we geeks were already forming computer clubs and programming in BASIC. And OMG, what's with all of the clichés? Nonetheless, the underlying plot is interesting and fun.

10 Thoughts on Monday's Indictments

1. First Conviction: By his guilty plea, George Papadopoulos has provided Robert Mueller the first conviction stemming from his ongoing investigation into Trump-Russia collusion, aka conspiracy against the US and possibly treason. Just five months into his investigation and the first conviction has been obtained.
2. Best Case Scenario: Under the kindest interpretation of the explanations by the Trump administration, Donald's team did no due diligence prior to creating associations with various people. Under this scenario, however, the Trump administration is admitting incompetence. Think about that for a bit. Trump's team is incompetent. Heh. We already knew that. Yet, the administration can be both incompetent and guilty of criminal actions. For instance, out of sheer incompetence, Donald Jr and Jared Kushner illegally chased down a meeting with Russians to obtain proof coming directly from the Russian government.
3. Worst Case Scenario: In Papadopoulos' plea agreement, Mueller's team offered up, "There's a large scale ongoing investigation of which this case is a small part." That's extremely damning and dire words for Donald's administration, and I'm not talking about just Donald; this could include Mike Pence, given that we know he lied to the public about his knowledge of Mike Flynn's activities. It is likely involving Donald's family, too. We know Donald Jr and Jared Kushner met with Russian officials who dangled a carrot, then lied about it. You can see what I'm getting at, here, with Don Jr and Kushner -- I think under both scenarios they're going to be indicted at the very end.
4. Mueller's Probably Not Leaking: There was shock today when it was revealed that George Papadopoulos had been under a sealed indictment for months, and had signed a plea deal one month ago. He was, for the most part, completely off the radar of journalists. It was also somewhat of a surprise that Richard Gates was indicted; while he was closely associated with Manafort, clearly no one knew about how close this association was, not even the White House (see: sheer incompetence of White House). Essentially, Mueller's team is not the one leaking.  Leaks only damage their ability to leverage their case against individuals into cooperation, whereas lawyers might leak if they think getting the story out in front of the public sooner than later will eventually lessen the damage and allow them to try the case in the court of public opinion -- especially with Donald's base.
5. Who's Next: We know who has lied in public about contacts with Russians, so let's just presume that they're all targets -- lies are, after all, an atttempt to redirect away from the truth. Mike Flynn and Carter Page are two obvious choices for the next round of indictments because both were already revealed to have failed to register as foreign agents under FARA. 
6. The Real Targets: We generally know which members of the Trump Campaign have been in the broad discussions over Russia, and of those,  have been interviewed by the FBI. We can, crudely, interpret that the people who haven't yet been interviewed but have long been in the Russia discussion, are the real targets. Therefore, we know for sure that at the very least, Donald, Don Jr., and Jared Kushner are at the very top of the chain. But, we also know that Jay Sekulow and Jeff Sessions have knowledge about Russian interactions and they haven't yet been interviewed by the FBI, which is to say that it's a very strong possibility that these two are just one rung removed from the top. We'll know soon enough, by which people get interviewed next.
7. Donald's Poll Numbers: Since last Friday, when we learned about the grand jury's indictments, Donald's approval numbers have taken a huge hit. Gallup shows a net -5 point loss in a matter of three days. We know this story is going to continue to expand, especially over the next few days as journalists make up for the missing narrative that was created by George Papadopoulos' conviction. This is going to be one hell of a week in politics.
8. New York: Lest we forget, NY AG Eric Schneiderman is also conducting his own investigation, in cooperation with Mueller's team. This matters, insofar that a conviction under state laws cannot be pardoned by POTUS as he has no jurisdiction. Given how things have played out so far, it would be foolish not to assume that Mueller and Schneiderman have played out full scenarios and are already following their agreed-upon strategy of investigations and indictments.
9. Timing of Trials: Even under the best outcomes, a speedy trial requires a few months of pretrial motions, appeals, and scheduling conflicts. This is to say, Manafort and Gates won't be in trials until next year. They're just the tip of the iceberg, however, which means that 2018 could be the Year of Endless Trials and Indictments, or YETI for short. That bodes extremely poorly for Republicans in Congress and their 2018 midterm chances. Imagine the ongoing questions posed to Republicans about their failures to broach the subject of impeachment and their attempts to attack any investigations into the Trump campaign.
10. The Beginning of the End?: If his removal from office is the end, then Monday was not the beginning of the end. I would argue, the day he won the election was the beginning of the end. If he'd lost exactly as he'd reportedly anticipated, no one would have cared as much that Russia may have colluded with his campaign -- in this case, people would have tended to believe that Russia's interference was ineffectual and deserving of mockery instead of scrutiny. The spotlight he invited eventually provided the room to appoint Robert Mueller to look into Donald's financial dealings. Without Rod Rosenstein's specific letter granting Mueller wide powers to investigate, no one would have been able to follow the money up the chain to Donald. Just saying, only an idiot would run for office despite a lot of backroom deals and a long history of criminal settlements.

All of the Liars

Here is a current list of Trump Campaign-affiliated people who lied (publicly or to FBI) about meetings with Russians over campaign-related topics:

• Paul Manafort
• Carter Page
• Mike Flynn
• Richard Gates
• Jared Kushner
• Jeff Sessions
• Donald Trump Jr.
• George Papadopoulos

Why have so many people affiliated with the Trump Campaign lied about their contacts with Russian officials? 

As the idiom goes, where there's smoke there's fire.

5 Thoughts for October 26, 2017

1. Pokemon Go: On October 8, I leveled up to 35. I'm now past the halfway mark to reaching level 36. I'm moving up faster than anticipated, now that I've figured out my system. I ran into another player the other night. She's at level 38 and only started around Easter of this year, but she's already spent $160. I haven't spent any money at all, so, you know, I'm anticipating that it'll be around next Summer when I reach level 40. I am enjoying driving people at higher levels bonkers, though, by hitting them over and over at the gyms, forcing them to waste all of their golden razz berries and spend even more money, while turning them into paranoid obsessives -- imagine not knowing when I'll strike and take your gym down. All that is needed on my part, is to change up my long walks to shorter, more frequent walks, to make quick hits on gyms. Oh, and two high-quality Dragonites. Aside from a 100% Mewtwo, there is no better attacker, period. But frankly, I've already achieved gold status on those gyms, so, I'm just bypassing them for the gyms where I haven't yet achieved gold.
2. Cleaning Trick: I just realized that to clean out stainless steel pots from stains, I can simply use bleach and water. The stains I'm talking about are coffee and tea stains (tannins) that color the coffee press and carafe. I should have figured this out a long time ago; instead, I stumbled on it while bleaching a pot filled with some mold from forgotten tea. Then, instead of letting that bleach go to waste, I plug up the sink and pour the solution into the sink to sit as it clears out whatever's staining the sink's bottom.
3. Kaspersky: I think the media has the details slightly wrong. I suspect that, rather than being able to search for files based on names, Russia was able to access the digital signatures of files being scanned on a computer to determine whether or not that physical computer should be targeted for additional access. AV software works by comparing the digital signature of known viruses/malware to files on a device, which is not the same as being able to read the entire contents of your computer's files or the names of the files. If you, for instance, had in your possession, the known digital signature of an uncommon software file that only certain people would have -- e.g. a specific RSA2048-related authentication software file that was primarily used by military and associated contractors -- you could then pinpoint your IP address targets for unpatched vulnerabilities. The point is, Kaspersky may not have willingly cooperated with Russian FSB, yet, their traffic is accessible to the FSB, one way or another.
4. Reusable/Paper Coffee Filters: For a good long time, I've been using a reusable gold tone filter, thinking it'd be saving me money and good for the environment. I've temporarily switched back to paper filters. While I recouped by $ on the reusable filter fairly quickly, the problem I'd found was that I was constantly using up a lot of water to clean the filter after each use while washing down a significant amount of grind down the drain (even though I'd dumped most of it in the trash.)  Also, the reusable filter lets through all of the fines, which creates a sludge at the bottom of the cup. It's nice not to have to fuss with cleaning the filter and drinking sludge.
5. Theory of Niger Deaths: It seems as though many protocols were broken, allowing the deaths of four Green Berets to occur in Niger. That no one seems to be willing to talk about it or explain why we have so many American forces -- 800 personnel -- in Niger, highlights one very strong possibility: Because Donald gave military commanders the freedom to deploy/use force (as they saw fit) without first receiving the go-ahead from Donald, the military ran with it and got into trouble, and are now reticent to admit errors even as Donald had remained uninformed about their actions until after the fact. Presented with the outcome, Donald faced an acknowledgment that his decision to free the military had come back to bite him in the ass -- something he refuses to confront. This is why, contrary to offering condolences and reassurances, Donald pushed back by telling the widow of La David Johnson that he knew what he was signing up for. By pushing the onus on the military, Donald's attempting to remove personal responsibility as Commander in Chief of the armed forces.

5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 9

1. No One Knows What USC Will Do: It feels like we're at a tipping point in Helton's tenure and in USC's season. Sure, they're 4-1 in the PAC-12, but that's before we saw the most-lopsided loss to ND in a generation (1977, 19-49) and they looked like they regressed on a number of levels with the mental errors. The team should rebound, but USC's lost two of the last three games in Tempe at night and Saturday's game is ever so slightly later than usual -- 7:45 pm -- making for a very late night ending with what looks to be a very tired USC team. If USC loses to ASU, it's almost a foregone expectation that Helton will be fired at the end of the season. In other words, USC, with its back against the wall, should win this one in convincing fashion. But no one really knows what USC will do.
2. Trojans Outside of the Ballpark: It's not that USC has two losses, but that the second loss exposed how poorly USC's playing right now, which points to why USC is far outside of the CFP talk. The loss to ND wouldn't have been a bad loss if it were close, but it was, for all practical purposes, a bright demarcation between a good team getting better and a good team descending into mediocrity (at best). That's why the game at ASU matters a great deal -- if they lose, it puts a stamp on the direction of the team. Odds still have USC as the favorite +3.5, but they're 1-7 against the spread, so...
3. The Phoenix Rises: The Arizona schools are getting better as the season ages. Whereas they started the season near the bottom, they're now moving up to the upper half of the PAC-12. ASU looks a lot like how USC looked like last season where they turned the page in a tough loss to Utah to win out and beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Following the Sun Devils' loss to Stanford, they've taken down Washington and Utah. ASU's schedule is such that they could very well win out and go to the PAC-12 Championship. Unless that is, Arizona wins out, but UA has a much more difficult schedule to finish the season. What impresses me about the Wildcats, is the ability to win on the road.
4. Bowl Bound Teams?: We know, mathematically, WSU, UW, and USC are bowl-bound by virtue of having 6 wins. We also can safely assume that Stanford, needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible, is likely to get there tonight against Oregon State. By virtue of getting to host Oregon State and needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible, it's also highly probable that Arizona will be bowl-bound. By virtue of hosting Colorado and playing at Oregon State, Arizona State also looks like it'll be bowl-eligible. Cal, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah remain in the hunt, but realistically, I don't see how Oregon wins two more games without Justin Hebert. At the moment, Oregon State and Colorado haven't been mathematically eliminated, but a loss to Stanford tonight will make the Beavers the first team eliminated from consideration. Colorado's not doing much better, however. Note, with the relaxation of rules, the NCAA does allow for 5-7 teams to go to a bowl game if there aren't enough 6-6 teams.
5. Grading Willie Taggart and Justin Wilcox: Which coach is doing better in his first season in as HC in the PAC-12? Before Herbert's injury, you could see how Taggart got the offense moving again, but the defense has, and always was, Oregon's shortcoming. Without Herbert, they're a terrible team in everything but the offensive running game. A good passing quarterback is almost always able to shred their secondary. Wilcox has Cal at 4-4 and has a reasonable chance at finishing better than Sonny Dykes' season last year, at 5-7. What stands out is their surprise win against WSU -- their only true bright spot. Their win on the roat at UNC wasn't a big win, given that UNC is currently at 1-7. I give Taggart a C+ and Wilcox a B-.

I Have Found My Truth.

"A calm and modest life brings more happiness than the pursuit of success combined with constant restlessness." -- Albert Einstein

It's my truth because reading it was a jolt of lightning awakening the realization of my unconscious choice, decades ago.

5 Thoughts on USC's Loss to ND

1. Lacking Fundamentals: Even if a player is the best athlete on the team, they can't be making multiple errors let alone repeating the same errors. These self-inflicted errors are a carry-over from last year and it comes from the coaches. You've heard it directly from the coaches, as a matter of fact: they've repeatedly told the media that they're willing to live with the errors of some players because they know how good they are. Well, those errors are blowing up, now. USC's three turnovers, badly timed penalties, dropped wide-open passes, and failed 27-yard field goal cost the team at least 24 points. This game would have been a completely different beast without all those unforced errors.
2. Sit Sam: From the first game to this last game, Sam Darnold just hasn't performed consistently, but it's gotten a lot worse with Sam making a ton of mental errors. To me, that's a sign that he's mentally and physically exhausted and not as sharp and quick as he should be. Such poor performances from its stars make USC absolutely mediocre and in turn, results in rough games against bad teams. If you want to run, make it a true run-option game package with Matt Fink. If you really believe you have a good team, use more of your players.
3. Stop Running: You're not fooling anyone by play-action pass, down 21 points. You're also wasting time and opportunities to get the ball moving. I mean, sure, when the defense starts playing 3 linemen and dropping 8 into zone coverage, the temptation to run is very high, but the only player who should be allowed to run is the QB -- scrambling into an empty spot on the field and slide. If you call a play to run when you're 21 points down, you look bad. The other side is laughing at your stubbornness.
4. Diagnosing the Defense: They're exhausted and they aren't tackling. I've read that they haven't been doing live tackling during practices which, I understand that being worn down from a season without a bye week means they're exhausted, but you can't stop live tackling during the season's practices. Tackling practice with dummies isn't worth a damn when a dummy can't do a jump step or pivot on the spot. We first saw the effects show up -- being exhausted and poor tackling -- last week against Utah, where Cam Smith was attempting to save his body and bounce off hard hits rather than deliver big blows. It's time to rotate players and do live tackling, Clancy. If you'd been doing this all season long, the front 7 wouldn't be in such rough shape.
5. Coaching Changes?: Inevitably, some schools have much higher aspirations and expectations. USC is one of those schools, and for a variety of reasons, they've fallen short of expectations. Interestingly, this is almost entirely because of Pete Carroll's success and dominance of college football during his tenure. That's why fans will, yet again, be calling for a head coaching change. But that's a mistake. Give Clay Helton some time and I really think he'll build his system and make the program successful and stable. Helton's aw shucks demeanor, as I've mentioned, drives a lot of people furious. But you might have noticed, we actually saw Angry Helton during the game, albeit directed at officials rather than players and coaches. If he learns to direct his anger at the right times and the right people, he'll be much more effective as a coach.

5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 8

1. USC-ND: There's a lot on the line in this game as both teams have one loss and it's assumed that a second loss would keep the loser of this game out of the CFP. But that might not exactly be the case with either team. Both teams will have an opportunity to win out and end the season without a "bad" loss. But I think USC wins this one in a blowout (or a last-minute come-from-behind shocker). USC-ND is a mismatch of strengths. USC's strength on offense is the passing game (296.4 ypg) which lines up to ND's weakness on defense (231.2 ypg). ND's strength on offense is the rushing game (308.0 ypg) which is USC's stronger half of the defense (146.7 ypg). If you force a modest passing quarterback to pass a lot, he will throw a lot of interceptions and miss his receivers. If the game is tight, USC's passing offense has the ability to race down the field in under a minute. The oddsmakers have ND as a 3 1/2 point favorite, which is a fairly tight game. A tight game favors USC's passing offense.
2. The State of Washington: Woe is the state, whose two ranked power-five teams lost to unheralded teams. Road games are harder to win than home matches, but seeing Washington lose to Arizona State is curious. They can't be accused of looking ahead -- they have a bye week this week -- yet they came out flat and stayed flat. Perhaps they're not good enough to make it to the playoffs after all. WSU was always a streaky, uneven team, and it showed at Cal. Yes, they're a good team, but they're not a great team just yet. This week, they'll get all of their frustrations out by blowing up Colorado in Pullman.
3. What Happened to Colorado?: I'm dumbfounded at how bad Colorado is this year. They're on the razor's edge between finishing 6-6 and 5-7. Last year, they finished the regular season at 10-2 before losing in the PAC-12 Championship and the Alamo Bowl. Oh wait, I see it now. They were always pretenders, as opposed to contenders, as evidenced from last year's finish. I was fooled!
4. Oregon's Physical Game: Is nonexistent. So much for all that talk and fall camp push for a more physical team, eh? They got manhandled by Stanford. And as I said before, their secondary is questionable, getting ripped by Keller Chryst. They're not a bad team, but they're still firmly stuck in the middle tier of the PAC-12, especially without Justin Hebert. They're favored against UCLA, but do you really pick the Ducks secondary to beat Josh Rosen on the road? When Rosen is on fire, he's tough to beat, especially when he throws to Caleb Wilson. Until the Ducks show that they can win without Hebert, I'm having trouble seeing them reach a bowl game.
5. Power Rank: From best to worst, going into week 8, USC, UW, Stanford, WSU, Utah, Cal, ASU, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Colorado....
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ....Oregon State.

5 Thoughts on USC's Win over Utah

1. Huge Step Forward: Beating Utah was a huge step forward. This has all the hallmarks of a season-changing game, where the offense finally looked like it was ready for a run to the playoffs. Even with all of the errors and being down 21-7 at the half, this team fought back. That second half was one of the best halves of a football game USC has played this year, given the number of starters that were sidelined by injuries.
2. Cam Smith is Worn Down: I'm sure everyone saw it, as Cam Smith got bulldozed multiple times. He may have gotten a ton of tackles but most of them weren't pretty. It also looked like he was trying to save his body by avoiding unnecessary contact and bouncing off hits rather than delivering them. Rest him during the week. You know what he can do for you and you know he's mentally prepared to play. Let this be a warning to all: Never schedule a season like USC's, where there is not a single bye week.
3. USC is USC's Biggest Problem: If you count (3) turnovers and (3) penalties as unforced errors, USC had five unforced errors in the first half and just one in the second half -- a kickoff out of bounds. That split also showed up in how well the team performed in each half. With all of the talent USC has, USC's biggest obstacle to winning games is itself.
4. Offense is Much Better: The offense was moving well, except of course, the mental errors that turned the ball over near or in the red zone. When they stopped the mental errors, the Trojans were scoring. 532 yards of offense and 83 plays. Had they not committed unforced errors, the game would have been a blowout with Trojans winning 45 - 28. A large part of their success against the Utes came from an offensive line that blocked well and receivers sacrificing their body to catch the ball. Aside from the turnovers, this was huge, considering the quality of the defense they were up against.
5. Jack Jones: Before the season I stated that Adoree Jackson would not be missed nearly as much as people thought he'd be on defense. Jack Jones just showed how solid of a cornerback he is against the Utes, shutting down his side of the field. Utah's Troy Williams all but stopped throwing in his direction, instead, targeting Ajene Harris and Iman Marshall. In the secondary, Jones is the brightest star in his first year as a starter and his star will only grow brighter. Every once in a while, the video catches his face and you can see an Earl Thomas intensity in it. I'm excited about him.

5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 7

1. Oregon State is Really Bad: As mentioned before the season started, I thought OSU would be at the very bottom of the PAC-12. So far, they haven't disappointed. They were lucky to beat Portland State -- a team that had dominated them with the exception of turnovers -- otherwise, they'd be winless this year. Having said that, I don't understand Gary Andersen resigning at the midway point. Sure, the team has reverted back to the Pettibone era, but now the team is down a paid coaching position and recruiting still takes a hit. Whatever. Maybe OSU will get lucky and Mike Riley will become available in a couple of weeks?
2. Oregon is Still Average: It was a foregone conclusion that Oregon would lose to WSU, but it had nothing to do with the injury of Justin Herbert. Their secondary was the problem, going up against a really good passing team. And, as I mentioned two weeks ago, the reason why they had to beat Cal was that they were about to enter the hardest part of their schedule and might not win another game until they play their last two games -- Arizona and Oregon State. Now, with Herbert out 4-6 weeks (I doubt he comes back to play the final two games, though) it's even more likely that they end the season 6-6 at best. Arizona's been looking better, having barely lost to Utah and beating Colorado in Boulder, so, 5-7?
3. Washington Will Win PAC-12: They're not quite like the dominant USC teams under Pete Carroll, but they are damn consistent and solid. I've said this the past two weeks, now, especially in light of USC's difficulties, that USC might have better talent but Washington's done a better job with what they have. I don't particularly like the Huskies, truth be told, but you have to admire the job that coach Chris Petersen has done up there in all aspects of the game. The defense is flying around and holding opponents to an average of 10 points a game, while the offense is crushing it, averaging 43 points a game. Mind you, they're still not at the level of Clemson and Alabama in terms of talent, unlike USC. This is why USC, despite their poor level of play, remains a dark horse of sorts -- you never know if their talent will show up in a game and dominate.
4. Biggest Surprise is Colorado: I don't think anyone expected Colorado to lose their first three PAC-12 games. Sure, the loss to UW was expected, but to UCLA and Arizona? They've gone from the upper middle tier to the bottom of the middle tier (because Oregon State is in a bottom tier all by itself, so far separated from the rest of the league). It's extremely surprising because last year QB Steven Montez looked good when he was inserted to replace the injured Sefo Liufau, such that they had a mini QB controversy in the middle of the season last year. So what happened? They have two established senior wide receivers in Shay Fields and Devin Ross and senior Philip Lindsay at running back.
5. Midway Season Ranking: Now that we're halfway through the season, here's where I think the PAC-12 teams stand, in order from best to worst: Washington, WSU, USC, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State...
   
   
   
   
   
   Oregon State.

This is a Funny Story of Frustration (Repost)

TL;DR -- I spent a week searching for a solution to a discrepancy that, in the end, did not actually exist.

Five Thoughts on USC's Win Against Oregon State, Halfway Mark

1. Good Enough, Not Great: If not for USC subbing Matt Fink for Sam Darnold with 7-1/2 minutes left in the game and Fink taking that QB option to run for 51 yards and a touchdown, it's not clear that USC would have scored again. Had the final score been 31 - 10, USC would have owned the ignoble distinction of scoring the least number of points by an OSU opponent this season. The Trojans are good enough to win most games, but they're not great enough to win the national championship, at least, not if the season ended today.
2. Best Unit: I really like the defensive line (and more broadly the front seven). So many questions, so many difficulties, yet, the defensive line seems to answer the call and step up -- Big Kenechi Udeze (BKU) will eventually become a defensive coordinator, I'm sure. If not for the subpar offensive line play of late -- largely because of the rash of injuries -- I would have had the running backs as the best unit. Both units looked spectacular in fall camp drill videos and all that work carried over into games. If you look at special teams, aside from a ton of mistakes, they've improved the most since the first game. That's it.
3. Getting Better?: This is the question everyone is asking. The answer, of course, is that over the first half of the season some players definitely got better -- Christian Rector, Jack Jones, Ronald Jones, Tyler Vaughns -- and yet, it doesn't feel as though this year's squad has made the big improvements over the first six games as last year's squad. The inconsistency is why it's so difficult to see where the improvements are.
4. The Talent-Results Differential: For the past four years, OSU has at or near the bottom of the PAC-12 in recruiting while USC has been ranked #1 all that time. Yet, it wasn't clear through the entire game that the teams were separated by talent by a wide margin -- something that was hoped for and expected. All teams have lulls, but USC seems to constantly fall into them this year. Still, if USC ends up 11-3 or 12-2, wouldn't that still qualify as success? I think I understand why people are frustrated and it has less to do with results and more about the clash of culture -- see #3 below.
5. Father Knows Best: Helton is very much like the 50s iconographic TV father who was stern but loving. Helton's soft delivery grates on so many people because we live in a completely different period in time where our caffeinated, intensely competitive world has eschewed pats on the back for chest bumps. We enjoyed the Pete Carroll - Jim Harbaugh feud because it lined up two very intense personalities against each other. With Helton, everything feels deconflicted. We miss the intensity. We miss conflict. When you listen to the players speak about the game and their opponents, they're projecting Helton. They deconflict.

Do the right things...

Do the right things...

not because you were told to;

not because it makes you look righteous;

not because everyone else is doing it;

not because it makes you feel good;

not because a religious edict demands it;

because they are right.

If you wanted to know if I had a personal credo and what it was, this is it. I'm not saying that I abide by it all the time -- I don't -- but that this is the rule I try to live by. It's something to strive for, even though I fail all the time.

Obviously, what is right is left ambiguous. This is not a credo with easy answers -- it demands that all things shall be considered carefully.

Five Observations on the LV Shooter and His Motive

The police and FBI are at a loss for explaining the Las Vegas shooter's motive. The few clues he left behind do not seem to point to a specific goal and of the thousands of leads they've received, none have panned out, leaving the FBI baffled. I offer five observations:

1. Not providing a clear motive can, in itself, point to a person who may have known that a stated motive would be counterproductive to his true goal -- a "motive paradox".
2. His target was a large group of people, pointing to a bigger message -- a political message.
3. The various venues he'd scoped out, including Lollapalooza, should indicate that Las Vegas and his gambling were generally coincidental factors. LV and his gambling informed his decision to make an open-air concert in LV his target, but LV and his gambling weren't related to his motive.
4. He wired money to his girlfriend. That was a way of breaking up with her.This implies, contrary to what some are suggesting, that he really wasn't expecting to survive this. The carload of fertilizer and ammo signaled something else other than his intention to survive.
5. I have a working theory of his motive, but it requires that he had a very high IQ _and_ was diagnosed as a psychopath. Until both are established, there is little point to identifying my working theory. But if you need a hint, the "motive paradox" is central.

Last Night's Dream

True story

I exceedingly overslept today, as I was chasing down a dream, one that, fortunately, did not involve free fallin. Instead, it was a dream about a workplace where, despite my desire to stay there, people stared at me with the unspoken demand, don't come around here no more. I ended up following some coworkers to speak to them about how things were. They told me yer so bad. I responded that you don't know how it feels, that I need to explain how things got this way.

Then I woke up.

I told myself, you got lucky that it wasn't real. But then I questioned myself, why would I try to save a job that I felt uncomfortable at? I've always been disinclined to beg. My motto is, it's good to be king, and by that, I mean that my choices are not constricted. I can -- and have always felt -- walk away at any time from any job. This freedom of choice is priceless.

Anyway, RIP Tom Petty.

5 Thoughts on Las Vegas Massacre

1. Sympathy and Empathy: I'm deeply saddened by this particular event. I can, I sympathize with people whose loved ones were killed or injured, but most of all, I feel extremely frustrated that hundreds of innocent people keep losing their lives to such meaningless violence. It's too painful that we keep having this discussion with zero changes.
2. I'm Shaken: I found out that my BFF's oldest daughter nearly attended that concert, but canceled. I've known her daughter for 14 years now. I knew she was the type to go to a country music show, and the moment I heard about the incident, she popped up in my thoughts. I don't think I could be strong enough for my BFF and her family had she been killed on Sunday evening.
3. It Could Have Been Much Worse: They found thousands of rounds of ammunition, over a dozen firearms, and equipment and materials to construct a crude fertilizer bomb. With over 500 people injured and 58 victims perished, the outcome was bad enough but the numbers don't even begin to describe how bad this could have been if things had gone slightly differently. With 20,000 people attending the concert, a bomb would have easily tripled the casualties and deaths.
4. Firearms Regulation is Needed: The late Justice Scalia never took regulation of firearms off the table, contrary to what many people believe. Yet, we have the NRA telling us that the right to own firearms is without question and the ACLU demands that the gun rights of the mentally ill are restored once their illness is under control. They offer abstract arguments that remove context and reality, as though their narrow interpretation of the 2nd Amendment is sacrosanct and correct. They're wrong and they're responsible for the loosening of gun laws which have allowed for the steady increase in mass-murder events. NRA money is blood money.
5. Yes, We Have to Talk About it Now: We have to talk about it now; we can't keep having Sandy Hooks, Pulse Nightclubs, and Las Vegas concerts, where innocent people are dying because we refuse to address firearms regulation. There is no 'good time' to discuss this; we do this now because it must be addressed sooner than later. Wouldn't you want to discuss this before your family member dies from a gunshot?

5 Thoughts on Week 5 of PAC-12 Football

1. McCaffrey Who?: The really good teams -- like Alabama -- reload, such that you don't miss the last group of guys. Stanford's not quite up to being at the very top level of competition, but Bryce Love has proven that he's just as capable as Christian McCaffrey. This season, Love is on track to blow past McCaffrey's best rushing season (2015), assuming he keeps up his current pace.
2. Keller Chryst: I mentioned before the season started that Keller Chryst might not be ready to return. He was injured early in the UCLA game, and K.J. Costello appears to have permanently replaced him, having finished the UCLA game with two touchdowns and starting against ASU. I think his career might already be headed in a downward track, despite the promise of his talent.
3. Oregon Passes Test, But...: Beating Cal at home wasn't a gimme; it was a game they had to win in order to ensure a path to a bowl game. If they'd lost to Cal, they'd be sitting at the bottom of the middle tier in the PAC-12. But, their best quarterback has apparently broken his collarbone, meaning, he's going to be out for the rest of the season. It gets a lot harder to win another game in the next 5 weeks. Don't be surprised if they end up 4-6 or 5-5 by the time they reach their bye week.
4. Best Coach in PAC-12:  Chris Petersen is, hands down, the best coach in the PAC-12 at this point. When Sark left for USC, he explicitly did so because he felt that he could achieve greater success with the amount of talent at USC and with the ability to recruit better talent at USC. It turns out, Petersen was able to succeed above and beyond USC's abilities with lesser recruiting opportunities, embarrassing Sark two years ago. 2017 was supposed to be USC's year, but from where we stand right now, everything points to UW returning to the national championship playoffs. The big ball of irony, of course, is that USC selected Sark over Petersen. Of course, if at the end of the season USC and UW meet at the PAC-12 championship game and USC wins, it's fair to say that Helton is the top coach.
5. USC's Bright Spots: Despite all of the doom and gloom, USC has a handful of bright spots on the team. Uchenna Nwosu, without a doubt, is the team's MVP. Jack Jones has made dramatic improvements with each game and appears to be headed towards becoming a lockdown corner. Chase McGrath has gone from walk-on placekicker to game-winning hero and Mr. Reliability. Reid Budrovich, another walk-on player, has punted his way into the starting spot, averaging 45.6 yards per punt with long punts of 56, 59 and 63. There are a few other players who've surprised this season and will soon become bright spots, too, including Marlon Tuipulotu, Tyler Vaughns, Christian Rector, and Stephen Carr.

5 Thoughts on USC's Loss at WSU

1. As Expected: I wish I wasn't right, but as I suspected might happen, USC's secondary wasn't good enough to handle a really good passing team and the offensive passing game was only modestly successful. The defense kept losing the battle of the 3rd and long which is absolutely puzzling -- the odds are normally stacked against you in 3rd and long but WSU kept converting on midrange passes. Now believe me, WSU is a really good passing team, but they're nowhere close to being a championship-caliber team. So unless USC steps it up several levels, they're going to end up 9-3 after the regular season and out of playoff contention.
2. Too Balanced: It is obscene at this point, that USC's has this bullheadedness about pursuing a perfect balance in the offense. They ended the game with 29 rushes for 163 yards and 29 passes for 164 yards. It's a failure in logic, really. WSU is completely unbalanced with huge lean on the passing game, yet, as you might have seen tonight, their run game is doing well enough. Why? Because the defense is tilted to protect against the pass, leaving 6 guys near the line with a wide open lane to get to the second level if you get past the line of scrimmage. That's how Jamal Morrow broke those two long runs. If WSU can move the ball with an imbalanced game, why can't USC go with the flow of the game? It's one of the most perplexing and annoying parts of the USC offense, going back to the Sark years.
3. Stop Making it About the 4th Quarter: Except for the Stanford game, every game this season has pretty much gone the same way with USC coaches and players expecting to make a huge surge in the 4th quarter to win games. That's not how you get to an undefeated season. Ask any oddsmaker and they'll tell you that you're not always going to come from behind to win the game, late in the 4th quarter; you have to rely on too many things going the right way in order to win. They're setting themselves up for failure in the 4th quarter -- which is exactly what happened to Sam Darnold and a hobbled offensive line relying on three backups including a pair of true freshmen. 
4. Good Loss or Bad Loss?: On the one hand, this was a bad loss because it exposed all of the shortcomings of the USC's coaching staff and likely cost Darnold his top spot in the draft as well as any awards. On the other hand, it's like they needed to lose in order to get the monkey off their backs or maybe a slap in the face. They have to stop pretending to be contenders; either they know they're contenders or they're not. This season has so far looked more like a team relieved that they survived than a team of gladiators relishing the next, bigger challenge. It's up to them whether this turns out to be a bad loss or a good loss. I think this will be a good loss, but we won't know it until they, figuratively speaking, punch both Utah and Notre Dame in the mouth and crush them.
5. Bad PAC-12 Refs: This is one of those games where the PAC-12 refs were so awful in every aspect of the game, that they had a huge impact on the outcome. They correctly called targeting -- a player used his helmet to hit the receiver in the upper chest/helmet who was already being tackled -- only to have it reversed upstairs. What the hell? It is clearly visible in the video. The defensive player turned his helmet down just before he made the hit. You can see the helmet hitting the face mask. They talk about protecting players but it's not true; it's mostly fake and it's been this way even after the studies linking CTE and concussions.

5 Thoughts on Week 4 in the PAC-12

I meant to pop this out days ago, but I've been preoccupied. Hey, at least I got it out before tonight's game.

1. Oregon Blues: Losing on the road in Tempe isn't the worst thing in the world, but it does signal that they're not "back" quite yet. A good team can win on the road, but Oregon hasn't hit that level, it appears. They should be able to beat Cal in Autzen, but then they hit the hardest part of their schedule against Wazzu, at Stanford, at UCLA, Utah, and at UDub. If they don't win a single game in that stretch, at best, they'll finish 6-6. If they lose to Cal this weekend, the natives will be restless, knowing what's coming up in their schedule.
2. Washington is PAC-12's Best: Going into Boulder and blowing the Buffs up was huge. Between this blowout win and last year's PAC-12 Championship blowout win, the Huskies definitely pwn Colorado. In four games, they've shown a remarkable consistency of a championship-caliber team, regardless of opponent. This makes them a better team than USC, right now. USC might have greater talent and higher potential, but all of that is a waste if they don't play consistently and up to their potential in every game as it will eventually catch up to them and one bad loss is enough to keep a team out of the playoffs.
3. Oregon State is PAC-12's Worst: I watched their game against Portland State, and it's fair to say Oregon State was lucky to get a win. Were it not for a handful of mental errors, PSU dominated the Beavers. Last year, all four of their wins came at home at Reser Stadium. The remaining four home games consist of UW, Colorado, Stanford, and ASU in that order. It's an iffy proposition that they'll beat ASU, and if so, it's the Jerry Pettibone era all over again. 1995 was the last time OSU posted a one-win season. Even if they beat ASU, it'll just be their 8th win in three seasons with head coach Gary Anderson.
4. USC Might Lose In Pullman: Going into the season, I thought that the secondary would be USC's strength given how two of them have been around for a few years and should be ready to step up, but it hasn't necessarily been the case against passing-oriented teams. Combine that with a modestly performing USC passing game, and this one has the hallmarks of a big upset and I'm not talking a single-digit loss. On the other hand, WSU might always 'coug it'.
5. PAC-12 Refs: I didn't watch all of the games, but of what I'd watched in week 4, it seems clear that the PAC-12 refs are once again seeing phantom fouls while failing to see the infractions right in front of their faces. USC had a phantom clipping while not a single ref noticed the two-player shift (without reset) in a punt formation. I have no idea how the refs failed to see the illegal shift from the punt formation -- it's not so difficult to track movement by players who're supposed to be stuck in their stances. I can only imagine how much we'd be complaining about the PAC-12 refs if they didn't have the ability to review plays to correct some of their calls. Everyone makes mistakes, but how do you call a foul that you didn't actually see, and how can you not see the infractions right in front of your face?

The Intro Song to BoJack Horseman

Whether or not you're a fan of BoJack Horseman, the full-length song that is the intro is just a wonderful piece of melancholy. I know, how is melancholy wonderful? But it is.

Written by Patrick Carney (of The Black Keys) and his uncle, Ralph Carney (where do you think that amazing baritone sax came from?), it's a special song that sits with you as you look out into the world and ponder, "how the hell did I get here?"

5 Thoughts on USC Beating Cal

1. Cal is Still Not Bad: It's going to be a very difficult stretch for Cal and they're probably going to lose their next three games -- at Oregon, at Washington, hosting WSU -- but they're still not bad. But they're definitely not good enough. They will probably finish anywhere between 7-5 and 5-7, depending on two games (against Oregon State and UCLA). Are they better than last year? Yes. But not by a lot. Oregon's had a better turn-around season so far, even if they haven't played anyone worth talking about (yes, I'm throwing shade at Mike Riley, a mediocre coach).
2. Second Half Team: In four games, USC has gone from a +18 scoring margin in the first half to a +37 margin in the second. Doubling their scoring margin in the second half appears to show that USC is effectively making adjustments during halftime, which also implies that teams are throwing new looks at USC in the first half. 
3. USC Kicker Chase McGrath: He kicked three field goals (37 yards, 34, 46) against Cal, and he had plenty of leg on that 46-yarder. He's now 5 of 6 in his first season as a true freshman walk-on. He's become Mr. Reliable with each game -- no more skipping the field goal on 4th downs. It's great to see people rise to the occasion.
4. Takeaway + Deflection: These are the defining attributes of this year's defense. In four games they've had 12 turnovers on defense and 13 pass breakups (deflections) on the defensive line. Don't be surprised if Uchenna Nwosu ends up 1st team PAC-12 defense at the end of the season and drafted by the 3rd round. His game this year is bonkers.
5. More Run-Play Options Please: Back when Andrew Luck was a redshirt junior (a senior but with one more year of eligibility left), his coaches expanded Luck's ability to call the plays on the field -- to adjust the call according to what the defense showed. USC ought to do something similar with Sam Darnold by calling many more run-play options (RPOs) and letting Darnold pick the defense apart, depending upon what they give him. Forcing the team to become a run-dominant offense does no favors to the offense when it continues to run up the middle even when the defense is stacking the box playing a single-high safety. Also, Darnold has to keep the ball more often before the defense respects the option run, but why not run the outside receiver an a delayed slant at the same time, to change the flow of the defense and give Darnold one extra option?

The Terror Dream

Ever since my BFF recounted dreams where she believes a demon has taken over her body and made her immobile -- apparently this is a thing, called sleep paralysis -- I've been having them, too. Except, mine are a lot weirder than hers ever could be as they have an exceptional clarity to them, allowing me to recount them in detail.

Just now, I just had one of them and I'm going to recount it for you.

The first part is a fragment of a dream where I'm driving in a very odd manner, doing a U-turn but doing it badly, getting hit but not getting injured. The next thing I can recollect is that I'm walking on the sidewalk avoiding traffic as I'm walking home. That's where the second part of the dream -- the disconcerting portion -- occurs.

I'm in a small, light beige colored bedroom, dimly lit by an incandescent light. It could be a white room, but because of the incandescent light, it feels like it's beige. Anyway, there are clothes to be folded, currently laid out on the bed, next to a suitcase and a dresser. The dresser is a dark brown color, I think it is a dark-stain oak. I don't quite remember the color of the suitcase, but it feels vintage with a faux rattlesnake pattern but in a dark brown color.

It feels like a sad moment, and like most sad moments I felt tired, so I decided to lay down on the bed -- the left side. But once I lay down (face down of course, because that's how I was actually sleeping), I felt my body immobilized. Then, a young girl is next to me. Of course, I can't really tell what she looks like, but I know it's a young girl because of her voice.

She says something, which then causes me to repeat it back.

As I said
In my head
He is dead
to me.

I can feel that as I'm saying this, I'm struggling to get up and my words are starting to slur in the struggle. I did not say the last two lines correctly. I'm trying to communicate a separate message to her, to get out of my head and body, but because I cannot move my body and I can only speak what she wants me to speak, I can only think it, repeatedly.

She repeats her last two lines, which then, is followed by my repetition of her words -- it is the primary reason, in fact, that I can recall them with precision.

He is dead
to me.

At that point, I am able to lift my head up and tell her to get out.

And that's when I wake up.

Amazing dream, huh?

5 Thoughts About PAC-12 Football After Week 3

1. The Everpresent Hype Machine: It's only week 3 and people are having a conniption on whether USC will make the playoffs after a poor showing against Texas. At the same time, everyone seems concerned that the previously anointed Top-NFL-Draft-Pick, Sam Darnold, is having trouble. These things happen to teams who play good teams. You don't learn a damned thing about teams playing crappy ones. For instance, in two weeks of playing crappy teams, Louisville's Lamar Jackson was being hyped as Lamar 5.0 or whatever. And then Clemson feasted on him. Don't believe the hype.
2. UCLA's Problem: They don't have much of a defense to speak of, and they haven't faced a team with a good defense. Up to now, their games have been high-scoring affairs. What happens when they meet a team with a decent defense? Going up next week against Stanford will tell us about how they perform against a good defense.
3. Stanford's Down Year?: I know SDSU is a fairly good MW team, but geez, losing to them? That's got to be the wake-up call for the offense, in particular. As suspected, that injury is mentally affecting Keller Chryst and Ryan Burns is just not going to cut it.  Bryce Love is as advertised, but he's still not a replacement for McCaffrey. Without a good offense, you saw how difficult it was for their defense to stay competitive.
4. Cal is Not Bad: Beating Ole Miss is not to be taken lightly. Sure, the Rebels are probably caught up in a lot of turmoil after Hugh Freeze quit in the middle of summer following the reporting of his using female escorts to recruit players, but still, they're a power-5 team that is probably somewhere between the middle and bottom tiers of power-5 teams. In other words, Cal is not bad. The Beavers are (super) bad, but not Cal. USC's still gonna open a can of whup ass in Berkeley, though, and I'm saying that because Justin Wilcox sucked badly as a DC at USC, then got a lot of pats on the back for his one year at Wisconsin taking over an existing powerhouse defense built by Dave Aranda (Wilcox's defense underperformed Aranda's).
5. Big Week: This week is going to be huge, as many games will help us understand how good (or bad) some teams are. Washington and Colorado finished at the top of their division last year so their matchup is going to be a great metric for both teams and the rest of the conference. The second-biggest game is UCLA vs Stanford, as this game will really tell us if Stanford's in a down year or not and whether UCLA's ready to take the next step while Josh Rosen's still at UCLA. The third-biggest game is Oregon at ASU, where we see how good that Oregon defense really is. These three games are all at night (7 / 7:30 pm), meaning: #pac12afterdark. Crazy things happen in PAC-12 games at night.

This Will Make You Angry

HHS's Tom Price has been taking private jet flights costing tens of thousands of dollars even as he's slashing HHS's funding for support of the ACA. Last week alone, he took five private flights that would have cost taxpayers at least $60K.

When he proposed slashing HHS's budget, he said:

"Tough choices had to be made to identify and reduce spending within the department."

Apparently, that didn't include flying commercial for himself.

The nerve of this little shithole plutocrat to steal from the poor to reward himself! He needs to resign immediately.

5 Thoughts on USC's Win over Texas

1. Great Teams Find a Way: A lot of fans will be upset that USC looked terrible, but a lot of teams have bad games. The great teams always find a way to win, even in the worst of games. Winning means everything in sports, even if it's an ugly win, so you take the win and celebrate the tenacity of your team to keep fighting.
2. Exorcising the Ghosts: In the back of everyone's mind, surely, was that this game was shaping up to resemble the 2006 Rose Bowl with Texas coming from behind to win the game as time ran out on the clock. Instead, we saw something resembling the shocking, last-second heroics from Sam Darnold in the 2017 Rose Bowl, as he drove the team 52 yards in 43 seconds to kick a field goal to send the game into overtime and eventually a win over Texas. Despite the anxiety of it all, it was a spectacular end. Also, it was satisfying to see Vince Young's deflated expression at the end of the game.
3. A New Hero: Talk about creating new heroes, USC's true freshman walk-on kicker hooked his first field goal, but then hit two clutch field goals at the end of the game. First, he hit a field goal to send the game into overtime, then he hit one in overtime to win the game. This might be one of those transformative games where the kicker -- Chase McGrath -- gains the confidence needed to become Mr. Reliable in clutch moments.
4. Injuries are Piling Up: Without a bye week, USC's really going to need second and third string players to step up, what with all of the injuries starting to pile up. USC's starting defensive tackle, tight end, and an inside linebacker sat out the game with injuries, but by the end of the game USC's starting right tackle, defensive end, and outside linebacker had been pulled for injuries. One player -- Porter Gustin -- played the first half even though he'd had two screws in his broken toe, but was pulled in the second half because one of the screws had come loose. Fortunately, USC's second string players are good enough to start on other teams; sadly, being talented is no substitution for experience.
5. Needs Substantial Improvement: Grade-wise, the team needs substantial improvement. Stanford lost to San Diego State, taking much of the shine off of last week's win over the Cardinals. But across the board, the team performed much worse against Texas than against Stanford. There were too many dropped balls, missed blocks and tackles, false starts, and questionable play selections. And despite the amount of talent in the secondary, they're looking sub-par so far. This secondary won't stand a chance against WSU in two weeks if they keep losing track of receivers or falling behind on routes.

5 Thoughts on "Week 2" of PAC-12 Football

1. Arizona Schools: Yep, they're pretty bad. For Arizona to lose at home to Houston and ASU to lose at home to SDSU is downright embarrassing. ASU and UA might end up combining for just three or four wins this year if Saturday's games are any indication of how bad these two teams are. Speaking of bad teams...
2. Oregon State is a Dumpster Fire: They barely beat Barney Ball, aka FCS Portland State Vikings. The only reason why they won was that the Vikings committed a lot of errors. Aside from that bad win, they've been blown out by Colorado State and Minnesota. They've clearly taken a step backward from last year which is the opposite of what I thought would happen. The way they've played so far, It's hard to see how they win another game this year.
3. Cal Deserves Some Credit: Their week one win at UNC was unexpected, but UNC is supposed to be in a rebuilding year. Nonetheless, they came back to win it so they deserve some credit. They also had to come from behind to beat Weber State, but like Oregon State, they had to come from behind against an FCS opponent and did so mostly due to the mistakes made by the other team. Struggling against an FCS team is a big red flag, so maybe Cal really will end up near the bottom of the PAC-12, but for now they deserve some credit for two straight wins.
4. Oregon is Better: I don't know how to judge Nebraska so it's hard to distinguish the quality of the Ducks so far, but the passing offense is, as one might expect from watching fall camp drills, vastly improved. The defense is -- still -- terrible, though perhaps not as bad as last year. Yet, because the Arizona schools and Oregon State have substantially slid backward this year, it seems that the Ducks might end up 8 - 4 and go to a bowl game this year, instead of what I thought would be a 6-6 season. Sometimes you get lucky, right?
5. The Three Tiers: USC, Washington, and Stanford remain in the top tier -- combined, they will probably have 4 losses or fewer. Utah, UCLA, Colorado, WSU, Oregon, and Cal are in the middle tier. ASU, UA, and Oregon State are, by a mile, stuck in the bottom tier. This is where things are right now, so maybe USC will end up in a dumpster fire while Oregon State wins out. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . LOL!

BTW, "Week 2" is in quotes because there were actually 3 weeks, but the first week had just a handful of games so no one is counting it as the first week of games.

5 Thoughts on USC's Win Over Stanford

1. Technique Matters: What we saw in those fall camp videos is what we saw in the game, and it was actually the same techniques we saw in the first game. In the run game, all of the running backs are running exactly like they did in Deland McCollough's drills. The offensive line is getting off the line and making their blocks especially their combo blocks. The defensive line is shooting the gaps, timing their jumps to deflect passes, and using their arms to hold off blocks to get to the running back. The big differences between the previous game and this one: the receivers didn't drop passes and the defense knew what to expect in the game.
2. Great Hire: Without a doubt, finding and hiring Deland McCollough away from Indiana was a great decision by Clay Helton. I can't get enough of his drills and how those drills have carried through to games. We've got running backs twisting, jumping and bursting through like they rarely did last year. Credit goes to the o-line for the holes, but the running backs are breaking multiple tackles on their way to long runs. Against lesser opponents than 
3. Loaded and Stronger: It's abundantly clear that USC is loaded and stronger than last year. No one is missed from last year, not Adoree Jackson, not Juju Smith-Schuster, not Darreus Rogers, no one. And that's not including Michael Pittman and Daniel Imatorbhebhe who did not play against Stanford.
4. Stanford's a Really Good Defense: Don't let this game fool you, Stanford has a really good defense. They will shut down nearly all other teams, but USC's offense is exceptionally special. Seeing USC grind Stanford down was an amazing, unexpected sight to behold. For the last decade, it's mostly been a rugged, dragged out physical affair with Stanford usually dictating the game. Not this year against this Trojan team. Aside from Stanford, there is just Utah with as tough a defense.
5. PAC-12 Refs: Geez, they sure had a string of really lousy calls. It'd been a few years since we'd last seen a game called this poorly in all of the PAC-12. They did their best to protect the feelings of Stanford's QB, Keller Chryst, not calling an obvious intentional grounding on one play, then a phantom personal foul on another. Unlike other years, this USC team did not lose composure and break down from the bad calls. The one thing they've gotten consistently right this year has been instant replay reviews, but of course, those are now being handled by PAC-12 officials in their headquarters, reviewing videos of close calls.