Friday, October 6, 2017

Five Observations on the LV Shooter and His Motive

The police and FBI are at a loss for explaining the Las Vegas shooter's motive. The few clues he left behind do not seem to point to a specific goal and of the thousands of leads they've received, none have panned out, leaving the FBI baffled. I offer five observations:

  1. Not providing a clear motive can, in itself, point to a person who may have known that a stated motive would be counterproductive to his true goal -- a "motive paradox".
  2. His target was a large group of people, pointing to a bigger message -- a political message.
  3. The various venues he'd scoped out, including Lollapalooza, should indicate that Las Vegas and his gambling were generally coincidental factors. LV and his gambling informed his decision to make an open-air concert in LV his target, but LV and his gambling weren't related to his motive.
  4. He wired money to his girlfriend. That was a way of breaking up with her.This implies, contrary to what some are suggesting, that he really wasn't expecting to survive this. The carload of fertilizer and ammo signaled something else other than his intention to survive.
  5. I have a working theory of his motive, but it requires that he had a very high IQ _and_ was diagnosed as a psychopath. Until both are established, there is little point to identifying my working theory. But if you need a hint, the "motive paradox" is central.

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