5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 9

1. No One Knows What USC Will Do: It feels like we're at a tipping point in Helton's tenure and in USC's season. Sure, they're 4-1 in the PAC-12, but that's before we saw the most-lopsided loss to ND in a generation (1977, 19-49) and they looked like they regressed on a number of levels with the mental errors. The team should rebound, but USC's lost two of the last three games in Tempe at night and Saturday's game is ever so slightly later than usual -- 7:45 pm -- making for a very late night ending with what looks to be a very tired USC team. If USC loses to ASU, it's almost a foregone expectation that Helton will be fired at the end of the season. In other words, USC, with its back against the wall, should win this one in convincing fashion. But no one really knows what USC will do.
2. Trojans Outside of the Ballpark: It's not that USC has two losses, but that the second loss exposed how poorly USC's playing right now, which points to why USC is far outside of the CFP talk. The loss to ND wouldn't have been a bad loss if it were close, but it was, for all practical purposes, a bright demarcation between a good team getting better and a good team descending into mediocrity (at best). That's why the game at ASU matters a great deal -- if they lose, it puts a stamp on the direction of the team. Odds still have USC as the favorite +3.5, but they're 1-7 against the spread, so...
3. The Phoenix Rises: The Arizona schools are getting better as the season ages. Whereas they started the season near the bottom, they're now moving up to the upper half of the PAC-12. ASU looks a lot like how USC looked like last season where they turned the page in a tough loss to Utah to win out and beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Following the Sun Devils' loss to Stanford, they've taken down Washington and Utah. ASU's schedule is such that they could very well win out and go to the PAC-12 Championship. Unless that is, Arizona wins out, but UA has a much more difficult schedule to finish the season. What impresses me about the Wildcats, is the ability to win on the road.
4. Bowl Bound Teams?: We know, mathematically, WSU, UW, and USC are bowl-bound by virtue of having 6 wins. We also can safely assume that Stanford, needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible, is likely to get there tonight against Oregon State. By virtue of getting to host Oregon State and needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible, it's also highly probable that Arizona will be bowl-bound. By virtue of hosting Colorado and playing at Oregon State, Arizona State also looks like it'll be bowl-eligible. Cal, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah remain in the hunt, but realistically, I don't see how Oregon wins two more games without Justin Hebert. At the moment, Oregon State and Colorado haven't been mathematically eliminated, but a loss to Stanford tonight will make the Beavers the first team eliminated from consideration. Colorado's not doing much better, however. Note, with the relaxation of rules, the NCAA does allow for 5-7 teams to go to a bowl game if there aren't enough 6-6 teams.
5. Grading Willie Taggart and Justin Wilcox: Which coach is doing better in his first season in as HC in the PAC-12? Before Herbert's injury, you could see how Taggart got the offense moving again, but the defense has, and always was, Oregon's shortcoming. Without Herbert, they're a terrible team in everything but the offensive running game. A good passing quarterback is almost always able to shred their secondary. Wilcox has Cal at 4-4 and has a reasonable chance at finishing better than Sonny Dykes' season last year, at 5-7. What stands out is their surprise win against WSU -- their only true bright spot. Their win on the roat at UNC wasn't a big win, given that UNC is currently at 1-7. I give Taggart a C+ and Wilcox a B-.