- Schedule: Say what you want, but the schedule is brutal up front. If you're just a mediocre team -- and on the surface this appears to be the case -- then you're going to look bad. Almost any other team in the FBS would probably have the same record as USC. Nonetheless, losing isn't the real issue here, because...
- How You Lose Matters: Most people figured that USC would lose three out of those four games -- Alabama, Stanford, and Utah -- so no one should be upset. But people are upset, and it's because of the way USC lost two games. There was no response to Alabama, after the Tide figuratively punched the Trojans in the mouth, resulting in a historically bad loss for the Trojans. Against Stanford, you could see the mental toughness melt away on both sides of the ball as time wore on. In the first quarter, the Trojans defense pre-snap adjustments looked as if they knew what play was coming, making several plays in the backfield. By the second quarter, they looked as though they stopped communicating. Speaking of communication problems...
- Offensive Line Woes: I just don't know how an offensive line that has played together for two straight years can be this bad. The Seattle Seahawks have an excuse: They keep changing out veteran players for the cheaper, low-draft and undrafted picks. What excuse do the Trojans have? 5 false starts in a game is a joke; Stanford isn't even close to being the loudest stadium in the PAC-12.
- What Physicality?: The emphasis this season, we were told, would be on physicality; I see none. Against Utah State, they netted just 178 yards on the ground, averaging 4.0 yards per rush. Against Stanford, they were averaging 4.5 yards per rush but only ran the ball 26 times for a net of 117 yards. The dumbest move, by far, has been the elimination of the blocking fullback. We've already seen that the tight ends can't block for shit. Losing Soma Vainuku to graduation meant losing the real physical force behind the run game. I would rather have a blocking fullback than a non-blocking tight end. USC looks like a pretender out there without a blocking fullback. Which highlights the core complaint...
- Identity Issues: Many people are wondering why this team doesn't have an 'identity', but in fact, they do. That reverse flea flicker showed that this team's identity is "The Grab Bag Offense". There is no way you would run that against a disciplined team like Stanford's. That stuff works against USC, not against Stanford. On the first series following halftime, USC ran four out of the five first plays, eventually scoring on the drive. In the very next series, they threw three times on their way to a 3-and-out. Why screw up the pattern that was successful? Then there's the start of the 4th quarter when Sam Darnold is sent in to hand the ball off on 4th down, instead of a run-option. It makes no sense whatsoever unless you're just grabbing plays out of the bag. That explains why...
- Offense Much Worse Than Last Year: This year the offense is averaging 114 fewer yards per game than last year, ranked 114th in the FBS in total offense. If you took away the Utah State game, the scoring offense would be ranked dead last in the FBS. Even with Utah State taken into consideration, the Trojans offense is ranked 108th out of 128 teams in scoring. The defense hasn't changed from last year, still ranked 65th in total defense, but it is averaging 27 fewer yards this year. Obviously, the big problem here is on offense, even if the defense has its own woes, which can be summed up by...
- Lack of Discipline: This isn't the first time we saw USC players fail to cover Christian McCaffrey. You just know that there was an emphasis during the week: Do not let McCaffrey run past you. Yet, once again we saw two defenders jump the short route while McCaffrey flew past them for an easy reception and score. That end-around to Michael Rector was successful because, as I complained about in the Alabama game, someone didn't hold the edge, and instead, flowed with the direction of the offensive line. So naturally, instead of fixing the problems we have...
- Changing of the QBs: I can understand the need to change things up, but the quarterback hardly seems to be the problem here. The offensive line, first and foremost, is a big problem. The play-calling is the second, big problem that is stunting the offense. The play of the quarterback? I'd file that concern below the lack of blocking by the tight ends, the lack of receivers securing the ball with both hands, and the absence of a blocking fullback in the scheme. But here's where it gets really tricky for the head coach: If USC loses miserably against Utah, the coach will have invited a full-blown QB controversy and fed into the narrative that the coach doesn't know what he's doing, regardless of the reasons for the loss. It's similar to the bet placed by the administration when it hired the head coach right after the blowout win against UCLA, only to lose an ugly game to Stanford and lose in ridiculous fashion to Wisconsin. If you let Max sit in the pocket for a normal amount of time, he'll find the open receiver; if you can't slow a blitz or hit your blocks, not even Sam Darnold will escape an unblocked defensive end or tackle. Cam Newton is a very fast quarterback and he runs all the time, yet even he can't outrun an unblocked lineman. Speaking of waste of personnel...
- Wasting Decoys Away: It is kind of stupid to waste Adoree Jackson's snap counts as a decoy as an X receiver on offense, you know? What would you do on defense, to counter his presence at the X receiver spot? Cover-two, of course! Line him up in the slot next to Juju and you've got a solid decoy that forces the defense to make bad decisions because the cover-2 pushes a slower linebacker to track the slot receiver. This is just one more reason why I have low confidence in the offensive play calling. All you need to look at to understand how this is affecting the personnnel is...
- Juju Smith-Schuster: His stock is rapidly declining. Last year he was Cody Kessler's favorite target by far. This year, Darreus Rogers leads all with 153 yards in receptions and Smith-Schuster is second with 99 yards. Against Utah State, he gained just 56 yards. It's not that they're using him as decoy (as they do with Adoree Jackson on offense), but that they're just not throwing the ball his way and letting him go after the ball. But hey, there's a bright side in all this...
- Adoree Jackson: He remains the highlight of the season, locking down the opponent's best receiver. Against Michael Rector, Jackson broke up one pass, intercepted another, and held Rector to 3 yards in receptions. Against Alabama, he held Calvin Ridley to just 9 yards. With his speed and athletic ability, he's not just a lockdown corner but a kick return threat, and is definitely headed towards the 1st round in the NFL draft -- the only question is whether he'll make top-5. So with alll this talent...
- Best Available Fix: No, firing or forcing the head coach to resign won't make things better; in fact, it'll probably make them worse. The best available fix at the moment is for the team to hire a bunch of consultants to review game film and offer advice about changes that could be implemented right away. Often, coaches hate it when fans and the media offer unsolicited advice, and end up doubling-down on poor decisions. I think we're seeing that right now. Having consultants come in, eases the criticism by sourcing it from people with a lot of knowledge about the game.
Linear thought is a flaw. As a dog, I like to cozy up on the sofa, pull up a glass of coffee and cookies and pretend to be human. I sometimes think that I wasted my time learning new tricks rather than playing outside.
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
12 Thoughts on the Current State of USC Football
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