Reuters UK reports that Exane BNP Paribas' survey whose sample (n=) of 456 potential smartphone buyers in five European markets where the Lumia 800 is currently available, suggested that only 2.2% intended to buy the new Nokia WP phone. As a result, they downgraded Nokia's stock and sliced sales projections from 2M units to 800K -- that despite Nokia's multi-million dollar marketing ad blitz, worth as much as $31M.
Microsoft
If Nokia's future looks cloudy, then surely Microsoft's mobile dreams are looking more like a nightmare, having spent nearly all of 2011 (since Nokia's February announcement to move to WP7) talking up the partnership and how the Mango update would dramatically improve Microsoft's competitiveness.
But WP7's global market share, as tracked by Gartner (see chart below) continues to shrink.
And according to Nielsen's US market report, WP7 now has less smartphone market share than the ill-fated WebOS.
That $31M ad spending on Nokia WP7 phones came from Microsoft. No one can make any more excuses about Microsoft's poor showing, if Q4-2011 doesn't show much of an improvement. When that happens, I think it's safe to assume, WP7's failure really does have to do with those live tiles -- something I have been harping on, for forever. Microsoft's insistence on migrating the Windows platform to live tiles in the Metro UI in Windows8, could spell disaster for Microsoft.
RIM
And here we thought they got their strategy ironed out some time earlier this year, but it turns out they're going to unveil their plans for Operation Rolling Thunder - Nokia's WP7 plans in the US - at CES, a day after they start selling the underwhelming Lumia 710 on T-Mobile. Never mind that at CES, one can expect a gazillion Ice Cream Sandwich tablets, phones and doodads, each sporting more impressive specs and 4G support -- something that Windows Phone does not yet do (no LTE or WiMax). And never mind that it's been 11 months since Nokia's CEO Stephen Elop revealed his plans to switch to the WP platform.
So either we've reached Elop's planned nadir of Nokia's two-year transition (and a 14-year stock price low) and things are about to turn upward, or Nokia remains in a death spiral on its way to acquisition.
Microsoft
If Nokia's future looks cloudy, then surely Microsoft's mobile dreams are looking more like a nightmare, having spent nearly all of 2011 (since Nokia's February announcement to move to WP7) talking up the partnership and how the Mango update would dramatically improve Microsoft's competitiveness.
But WP7's global market share, as tracked by Gartner (see chart below) continues to shrink.
And according to Nielsen's US market report, WP7 now has less smartphone market share than the ill-fated WebOS.
That $31M ad spending on Nokia WP7 phones came from Microsoft. No one can make any more excuses about Microsoft's poor showing, if Q4-2011 doesn't show much of an improvement. When that happens, I think it's safe to assume, WP7's failure really does have to do with those live tiles -- something I have been harping on, for forever. Microsoft's insistence on migrating the Windows platform to live tiles in the Metro UI in Windows8, could spell disaster for Microsoft.
RIM
By coincidence, RIM seems to be following a similar playbook as the other market losers: slow to respond to changing markets, and having to promise a good comeback at some nebulous point in the future. For some reason, RIM, Microsoft and Nokia all point to 2012 when their fortunes are supposed to change.
As if.
Earlier this week, RIM announced that its fortunes continue to decline (accompanied by its plunging stock price), and that:
As if.
Earlier this week, RIM announced that its fortunes continue to decline (accompanied by its plunging stock price), and that:
- Its next platform upgrade (QNX, aka Blackberry 10) will be delayed until the latter half of 2012;
- It expects 2~3M fewer shipped Blackberries in the current quarter.
That alone would spell doom, but the worst part about it all, is that no one is developing for Blackberry. Reuters reports that while EBay assigned about 100 engineers to develop apps for the iOS and Android platforms, and 50 for WP7, EBay only has about "one or two" engineers assigned to Blackberry.
If you need any more proof of RIM's dismal position, CanadianTV's report on RIM, quotes one of RIM's own employees asking management openly at a company meeting, "Why should we be excited to work for this company?"
In the last twelve months, RIM's US market share has been more than halved from 35.2% in October 2010, to 17.2% in October 2011 (see bottom chart). If buyers have to wait until the second half of 2012 to get their hands on a fresh Blackberry OS, I think it's plausible that RIM's US market share will be close to 8% come October 2012.
Is it harsh to call these three companies losers? I don't think so. They appear clueless as to what the market is telling them. They all make crazy predictions about what the future holds for their respective companies, and in the case of Nokia and Microsoft, go so far as to hurl insults at other platforms, even as their own fortunes continue to decline.
That's boneheaded.
That's boneheaded.
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