Thursday, July 29, 2010

What good is the border wall?

After going through the aggregate data from DHS' estimates from earlier this year, I have three observations:
  1. The economy appears to have had a huge impact on the direction that illegal immigrants go.  As Asia suffered less of an economic setback than that of the US, it appears Asians chose to leave for greener pastures. Call me crazy, but isn't a global dynamic work force what global open market advocates point to, as an efficient market?
  2. Even as Mexicans were actually LEAVING the US in 2009, more Guatemalans and Hondurans were entering the US illegally.  Doesn't seem like the border's walls and stepped up spending for enforcement of the border itself has made a difference one way or another; people move back and forth either way.
  3. Border apprehensions have also dropped, which seems to support the idea that fewer people are entering the US from the Mexican border, and in fact there is an out-migration.
Country/Area 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mexico 5970000 6570000 6980000 7030000 6650000
El Salvador 470000 510000 540000 570000 530000
Guatemala 370000 430000 500000 430000 480000
Honduras 180000 280000 280000 300000 320000
Philippines 210000 280000 290000 300000 270000
India 280000 210000 220000 160000 200000
Korea 210000 230000 230000 240000 200000
Ecuador 120000 150000 160000 170000 170000
Brazil 170000 210000 190000 180000 150000
China 230000 170000 290000 220000 120000






Americas 7280000 8150000 8650000 8680000 8300000
Asia 930000 890000 1030000 920000 790000



I don't think it's a good idea to crack down on illegal immigrants, as it seems highly likely that we'll end up with goods and services price inflation from a lack of a non-living wage workforce.  We need to identify which market sectors need cheap labor, and provide for a legal migration system for workers in those areas, while taxing them for the time that they're in the US, maybe a flat $600 / year, increasing automatically by 2% every year?

And I'm all for granting illegal immigrants who have children that were born in the US, so long as they pay a hefty fine...say $1000 for every year they've been in the US illegally, or a minimum of $5000 for those who do not have proof of their length of stay.


Sources:

  • http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_ill_pe_2009.pdf (top chart and table)
  • http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/statistics/publications/ois_apprehensions_fs_2005-2008.pdf (bottom chart)

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