Oregon's unemployment data for January came out, and the good news is that December 2008 was adjusted downward from a preliminary (from January's release) 9.0% (seasonally adjusted) to 8.3% (seasonally adjusted). But here's the bad news - and it's really, really bad - January's unemployment rate is 9.9% (seasonally adjusted).
If you do not adjust for seasonal employment, the number jumps to 10.9%. That's just downright frightful.
While that preliminary January number will likely move downward in the March release, for the time being that's a 1.6 percentage point increase in just one month! WOW.
Of course, I still believe Oregon's rate will probably reach 12-14% at its peak, which might be conservative if both credit lending AND sentiment don't improve in the first half of this year. The problem is, that the rate of unemployment is increasing faster now, than it was even 3 months ago, in Oregon. Therefore, it is impossible to predict a bottom, as there are no signs of a bottom in an upward curve.
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