Monday, November 7, 2016

5 Final Thoughts Before Election Day

  1. Vote: You have just one priority and that is to go vote. You have to earn the right to complain or rejoice. You need to vote. 
  2. Hispanics and Latinos: Rejoice, if you're Hispanic / Latino, as there has been a massive surge in registrations and early voting in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina. If you want immigration reform, you cannot sit on the sidelines and complain about the system -- you have to vote. I still hold out hope that the Hispanic / Latino vote will quietly and surprisingly shake up Arizona, Georgia and Texas.
  3. Everyone's Ignoring Wikileaks: Wikileaks has finally pissed off just about everyone in America, such that there has barely been any mention of their latest leaks. Fox News, CBS News, The Hill, and Breitbart have it, but Fox and CBS have it at the bottom of their page, and on The Hill and Breitbart it's been mostly ignored by people. NBC News, Politico, The Daily Beast, RCP, and others have completely ignored it. You can only cry wolf so many times before people simply shut you out.
  4. Nerd Fight!: There's a nerd fight going on between Nate Silver at 538, Predict Wise's David Rothschild, The Princeton Election Consortium's Sam Wang, and HuffPo's Ryan Grim, but there are many others who are knocking Silver for his modified methodology. Many people have been focused on 538's relatively low probability of a Hillary win.
  5. Prediction: On April 26 I offered my way-too-early electoral college map, and while the race has changed in unpredictable ways, I stand by that map and the 340 electoral college vote win for Hillary. By 5:00 pm west coast time, we'll have a very good idea where the election is headed. But if you're a political nut, you will want to be tuned in at 4:00 because there may be some huge upsets that'll lead to the race being called long before polls close on the west coast.
Now, back to work! 😫

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